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StumbleEconomist: Vegas housing market to recover in 2010
Monday, Feb. 23, 2009 | 5:09 p.m.
Sun Topics
Sun Archives
- Expert: Foreclosures to dominate real estate in 2009 (2-20-2009)
- Report: Median home sale price drops another $10,000 (2-19-2009)
- Nevada's foreclosure rate tops nation once again (2-12-2009)
- Realtors' numbers show need for stimulus (2-13-2009)
The steep drop in home prices and newly approved $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers will help pave the way for a recovery of the Las Vegas housing market in 2010, according to the chief economist with the National Association of Realtors.
Lawrence Yun said Monday he expects that foreclosures will continue at their elevated levels in 2009, but is optimistic that inventory will be whittled down given the increase in existing home sales in Las Vegas over the past several months. Only Nevada, California and Arizona have seen big jumps in sales. There were 38 percent more sales in Las Vegas in 2008 compared with 2007.
“You have gone through some very tough times, but any further decline, if any, would be minimal,” Yun said of median prices that have fallen $138,000 over the past two years to a price of $150,000 in January. “Given $150,000 is very affordable for such a dynamic metropolitan region, once the economy recovers, you are in good shape. But it is just getting over the short term.”
During an interview, Yun said he sees Las Vegas prices stabilizing in the second half of the year and by the fourth quarter they could be higher than the end of 2008. The median price at the end of 2008 was $157,250, according to SalesTraq.
Yun said he wouldn’t be surprised if prices appreciate more than 5 percent in 2010 but adds one caveat to his prediction – that while the long-term outlook for the Las Vegas housing market looks good, it is hard to make short-term forecasts.
If prices continue to decline in Las Vegas and the rest of the country by another 10 percent, that will further weaken the balance sheets of banks and further delay the recovery of the economy. The housing market troubles have been a driving force behind the economic woes and financial meltdown.
“Home prices are key to the economy turning around,” said Yun, who fears any further drops and their impact. If that happens, he said he doesn’t believe Americans have the will to spend another $700 billion on a bank bailout and that could lead to a deepening of the recession or a double-dip recession.
Yun spoke Monday to the NAR’s Rocky Mountain Regional Conference at Green Valley Ranch Resort.
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Honestly I wonder if these people saying that home prices won't go any lower are the same people down playing the "bubble" 3 to 4 years ago.
Home prices are not the key to turning the economy around. Wishing they went back up is the reason this area is depressed and being abandoned. Vegas has been over inflated by marketing for years and its about time it felt the back lash of its PR.
For example in July 2008 Yun stated "I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said (AP News).
Just another National Association of Realtors overpaid mumbling buffoon. I cannot believe that anyone would believe this shill who is utterly clueless about the real economy. This is like listening to Tanya Roberts pushing Tahiti Village on the radio. Man, why do the papers publish such abject fluffery?
I agree with both of the above comments. Without 6 years of loose credit-there never would have been a housing bubble in the first place. Now with virtually no financing avalable-its gonna take many many years for housing to recover. What good is an $8,000 tax credit-if people aren't working or are worried about losing their jobs.
I think the cycle of layoffs nationwide and in Vegas will continue probably until the fall 2010.
There probably will not be much growth for a couple of years after that.
I think the housing market in Legas will suck (technical term) until the Summer of 2011.
I think housing prices will continue to fall a little more.
But interest rates will start to go up.
They will start to go up a lot in a couple of years.
So if you got solid income and not concern about getting laid off or your business going under and if you are renting and not planing to move in 10 years then you should buy a house.
Housing issues got us in the mess we are in today and housing needs to be addressed before the economy can turn around.
All our government is doing is delaying the fallout and postponing the chances of a recovery anytime in the near future.
If anyone thinks that we will recover from this mess anytime soon I would suggest that you buy some casino stocks ... MGM stocks at less than 5 bucks a share when they were 100 dollars 15 months ago sounds like a steal for the optmistic.
Lawrence "the village idiot" Yun strikes again.
How much does the NAR pay the media to get their "views" expressed?
7-24-2008
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said that the housing rescue bill should play a major role in helping the housing market to rebound. He said an especially significant feature is a tax break worth up to $7,500 for first-time home buyers who purchase between April 9 of this year and July 1, 2009.
Yun estimated that up to 3 million first-time home buyers could qualify for that tax break, providing a significant boost to sales at a critical time.
"I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn," Yun said.
Source: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=...
Well, if you keep saying that the end of something is near, eventually you'll be right. First rule of weather forecasting.
By the way, I just had to post this and say...
jfnance, I agree with you.
There's a first for everything. :-)
Good to see so many comments calling out the lack of credibility in this story. I hope all readers take the time to also read the comments, as there is much more objectivity in the comments than in the story.
Kudos to the LV Sun for providing the forum for comments. Shame on LV Sun for continuing to perpetually print the "recovery is just around the corner" articles without any critical questioning.