Las Vegas Sun

February 12, 2012

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2020 Vision:

Steve Bottfeld: Builders will change strategy as supply of land dwindles

Steve Bottfeld

Sunday, Dec. 27, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Steve Bottfeld

Steve Bottfeld

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I think you are going to see major changes in Las Vegas over the next decade. Our concept of what the suburbs are is going to change dramatically.

The limited supply of land will dictate that by 2020.

We are an island, and it is surrounded by Bureau of Land Management and Native American land. There is little place to expand.

Coyote Springs, north of Las Vegas, will attract the trailing edge of the Baby Boom generation that is not going to commute. It is going to be a lot of people with home-based businesses. And the Ivanpah Valley airport should spur some development near Jean.

In Las Vegas, the era of the McMansion is over, and builders will focus on smaller and less expensive homes. The limited supply of land will ultimately force land prices back up.

Builders will place a bigger emphasis on the urban-village concept because of the limited availability and high cost of land.

We are going to see a much greater integration between retail and residential. I think we are going to end up seeing a lot more things like The District. I would bet you if Town Square hadn’t had height restrictions, it would have had a residential component. Look at the failure of condo conversions. It was because it was not integrated with retail.

Retail will change. It will get smaller and more specialized. It will be walkable. I think that is a reasonable expectation on what we are going to face because we are going to run out of land in the next decade.

You are going to see more town homes and four-story product. Baby Boomers wanted bigger space, but Gen X and Gen Y are much less oriented to large spaces. They don’t want as much space but they want the space to be better designed.

The focus will be on the infill market. If I were a builder looking at the future of homes in the next 10 years, I would start buying that property. It might be a mobile home park or vacant land, but it will be a piece near a major thoroughfare.

You are going to start seeing some high-end residential buildings on the south end of the Strip and in and around the Strip on Frank Sinatra Drive and Paradise Road. I think it is quite possible that the 40 acres north of Circus Circus will be a CityCenter echo.

You will see more high rises downtown. I think Oscar Goodman is the most underrated mayor in the world. He is bringing his vision for downtown to life. My sense is that the new City Hall will result in residential high rises around it.

Steve Bottfeld is executive vice president of Marketing Solutions.

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