Harry Reid’s political fortune may rest on a few factors

By Jon Ralston

Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Evaluating the recent Mason-Dixon poll numbers showing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid still submerged at 38 percent approval and 49 percent disapproval, one savvy Democratic insider put it this way: “Could be the day people look back on and see as his lowest point, or the day that it became clear that he was done.”

A succinct summation. Ten months is a long time for a drowning man to survive in those icy waters, so Reid has to hope either the candidate-heavy SS GOP sinks and/or the cash-burning SS Reid Campaign rescues him.

Although his “I have the juice” ad campaign has not moved his numbers, and his determination to make a difference in mailboxes from now until November has not yet had an effect, the media tsunami this early has highlighted one immutable fact: Very few people are undecided about Harry Reid.

As he treads water, Reid’s survival rests on a few factors:

• Democrats: The party still has a nearly 100,000-voter edge statewide. Reid is only getting about three-quarters of his own party in polling, but almost all should come home by November. “They may not like him, but will vote for him given the choice AND given the level of organization that Nevada will see,” one source close to the Reid campaign suggested. “And we have a tremendous opportunity with our new registrants and first-time presidential voters to make up margins there as well.” Every bit of party loyalty and organization (the GOP has none and has a damaged brand, too) will be needed to combat the kind of antipathy to Reid coursing through the electorate.

• Independents: If the Democrats come home, Reid does not need to win independents. But he cannot afford, as he is now, to lose by a landslide among independents. This group may be more susceptible to an aggressive media campaign focusing on the economy and Reid’s clout. But if the economy is not more robust and Reid wears it with other national Democratic leaders, say sayonara, Senator.

• His mouth: Reid is no slave to teleprompter or script. His recent extemporizing on the obstructionist Republicans reminding him of pro-slavery lawmakers sparked outrage, both the phony and real kinds. It is not a matter of if Reid will say something foolishly incendiary and politically damaging between now and November. It’s a case of how many times and how deep will the wounds be. When it comes to hoping whether Reid can stay on message, the war is lost.

• His money: By now you have heard the $25 million figure Reid plans to raise. But at some point is he just throwing good money after bad — that is, will the ads and mailers eventually move numbers? Telling voters over and over that cops and teachers and casino bosses and labor leaders love Harry Reid probably won’t make much difference. But using that money to turn Snow White (Sue Lowden) into The Wicked Witch of the West and Little Tark (Danny Tarkanian) into Big Telemarketer-Lover just might help make the “I’m the lesser of two evils” case. (If Sharron Angle is the nominee, then she will be portrayed as an extremist nut, and if John Chachas were to surprise, he’s caricatured as a rapacious Wall Street guy who doesn’t even live here. You get the picture.)

• His opponents: Not an embarrassment of riches, but, as I have said, an embarrassment of embarrassments, perhaps. I still don’t believe all 10 (and I am sure there are more to come) will file, and certainly at most half of those will have money to run a real campaign. But without a top-flight contender, the national GOP is going to have to flood the state with money for its No. 1 target of 2010, transmogrifying a second-tier nominee into the party’s savior from June until November.

• The two Reids: This is like reverse symbiosis — Rory for governor hurts Harry, and Harry for reelection hurts Rory. I find it unthinkable that Reid the Elder would step aside for Reid the Younger, nor do I think the reverse is likely. The Reid math is simple and depressing for Democrats: 1 plus 1 is unlikely to equal 2, but rather 0 or 1 come November.

If Reid survives — and he is the most resilient Nevada pol of the past 40 years — it surely will be the ugliest victory in a career of some harrowing losses and wins. But if the majority leader is consigned to Searchlight in 2011, he will not have been defeated in 2010 but will have taken on too much water by the end of this year.