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twitterPoll: Either GOP challenger could topple Harry Reid
Sunday, Aug. 23, 2009 | 5:29 p.m.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is shown during a Clean Energy Jobs tour at UNLV Tuesday, August 11, 2009. The tour was part of the national Clean Energy Summit 2.0.
WASHINGTON -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid famously ignores polls, but he might be paying attention to this one.
Results released today show not only does Reid remain unpopular in Nevada, he would be clobbered in next fall’s election by either of two potential Republican challengers.
The poll has been bouncing around Washington today – other takes on the poll are available from Politico and CQ Politics.
The poll shows Reid being beat by 11 percentage points (38 percent to 49 percent, with 13 undecided) by Republican Danny Tarkanian, a real estate professional who has run twice unsuccessfully for public office. His father was the legendary basketball coach at UNLV.
If the matchup were today, Reid also would fall to Sue Lowden (40 percent to 45 percent, with 15 undecided), the chair of the state’s struggling Republican Party who has not yet entered the race. The former state legislator and television news journalist is expected to announce in the next few weeks if she will run.
The poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, surveyed 400 Nevadans and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.
Some pundits like to say the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, and Reid has rarely had great numbers in the politically split state going into campaign season.
Even though Barack Obama won the state last fall, the president’s popularity nationally has been dipping and next fall’s congressional races will surely be influenced by the success or failure the Obama agenda.
The numbers in Nevada show the work ahead for the senator, who has long said he has a target on his back as Republicans prioritized their efforts to oust the Democratic leader.
Reid promises to raise $25 million for the campaign, and his team plans to tell Nevadans the story of the Senator from Searchlight. They have also promised an “aggressive” campaign, which is a polite way of saying research is likely underway on possible opponents.
Perhaps more interesting to Nevada voters was respondents’ choice for the Republican ticket.
Tarkanian easily bested Lowden in a Republican matchup, 33 percent to 14 percent, with 47 percent undecided, according to additional polling of Republicans that had a slightly larger margin of error.
Tarkanian has rarely been mentioned by party officials nationally or operatives in Nevada among their top choices to go after Reid. The National Republican Senatorial Committee strongly courted Republican Rep. Dean Heller to run. But Heller declined. The poll shows he would have beat Reid by 10 points (50 percent to 40 percent).
Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, a conservative who narrowly lost a primary to Heller in 2006, took 5 percent.
Reid’s approval rating remains upside down at home (37 percent of Nevadans polled viewing him favorably, 50 percent unfavorable), though not much has changed in there over the past year.
Discussion: 38 comments so far…
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YAAAAAAAA! Me and neiman1 finally topple this clown
Reid will be OK.
He will spend $40 million to squeak out a win.
Perhaps, he should just give each voter $100.
When asked who Danny Tarkanian and Sue Lowden are, 100 per cent of the people polled replied, "uh, I dunno." When asked what is it about these unknown names creates such fierce voting loyalty, they universally replied, "he's not Harry Reid." When asked what they hate so much about Harry Reid, they referred the pollsters to listen to talk radio and then they went back to writing their families in California to tell them how horrible it is Nevada and how they should have never moved here two years ago. PUHLEASE! Since when is rehashing a poll commissioned by the anti-Reid RJ news? IF YOU WANT TO BE SERIOUS ABOUT YOUR PULITZER -- perhaps taking a look at the possible flaws in the survey, or the statistical failures of Mason Dixon, or an in depth analysis of the methodology used. LV SUN, I already read this story from Spillman in the RJ.... what happened to WHY?
Reid will be O.K.
The voters will be getting campaign remniders of what the Bushies did to this country.
When we get health care passed, and the economy turns around, the voters won't be looking back to the right wing Gibbons/Ensign types for leadership no more!
Republicans = party of NO WE CAN'T!
Stuart & Robert Wyman-Cahall
Las Vegas, NV 89142
That is comforting howydostu
If health care reform does not get pass or the economy still sucks in 2010...we can count on your vote for the "Not Reid" candidate.
Thanks!
Perhaps, there is hope we can overcome the $40 million.
house majority leader,long-time senator.i just cant c harry reid losing this 1.especially after what the republicans put us through the last 8 yrs.like 'em or not harrys r horse n dc,ensign on the other hand is toast.
It's possible there will be a double dip to the recession next year, nobody in the know is avoiding that potential.
But, the problems which accrued in the financial sector of our economy under Bush are going to be slow healers, and there is also some restructuring and rethinking going on right now, probably most for the better.
A double dip would not be good news for Nevada.
But, again, these problems did not manifest from Senator Reid's decision making or leadership, from 2000-2008. As Majority Leader for the entire country's Senate, he is now in a position to really lead on national issues, which also makes it harder to allocate time to run for office back home.
As Majority Leader, Senator Reid has a big frontside (the country) and a big backside (Nevada). It would be wise to support Senator Reid, and by 2012-2013, THEN everyone can begin to form rational opinions about what kind of leadership we are seeing in Washington today.
My guess is we are seeing the right kind of leadership. It's a slow process, many past problems are on the table, not to mention the unexpected ones (such as Iran-Israel) which could occur in the future.
Please Nevada, keep the ineffective, spineless Harry Reid.
For some reason, the Senate Democrats have this fascination with promoting the mentally challenged to positions of leadership. Maybe it has something to do with their version of equal opportunity or something. In any case, Harry Reid is a prime example.
If you wonder how a party with such an overwhelming majority in both houses of congress and holding the presidential slot could be so inept, look no further than Harry.
Nevada has a choice. Continue to reap the benefits of having power in the Senate, with the embarrassment of knowing their senator is an idiot. Or replace him with a competent republican that has his office in the senate building basement, relegated to minor voice in the minority party.
If I were a Nevada Republican, I would choose Harry. I would take pride in the fact that my democratic senator is so inept he does far more damage to the democrats than any republican freshman ever could.
It is a sacrifice worth making for the sake of the nation.
Harry Reid is the biggest loser ever to represent the state of Nevada. A vote for Reid is a vote for amnesty for 12-20 million illegal aliens. (You know the guys that harrass the tourists and hand out the call girl and escort cards on the street corners)
I'm sick of being out of work and I'm sick of Harry Reid. Remember Obama's "Don't go to Vegas" rant? Harry let him get away with that slap in the face. I've pulled my last Democratic ballot.
Nevada needs to replace both senators.
So does California.
How long is this administration going to blame the previous administration (Which Reid and Obama were both part of the MAJORITY in the senate). They have raised the deficit more in 6 months than Bush did in 8 years (with a Democrat Congress through part of that time). Yes, Bush wasn't the greatest, But Obama is doing his part to assure that Bush will be remembered fondly.
Remember Tom Daschle?
How about Tom Foley?
Next out Harry Reid.
"How long is this (Democratic) administration going to blame the previous (Republican) administration" you ask?
How about for as long as every Iraq Vet suffers?
Better yet, how about until we all see Bush, Cheney, Rumsfield, Rice, Rove and the other Republican Rats burn in Hell - that's how long!
Abbinett: you should first ask Ted Kennedy what he thinks Hell is going to look like. My guess is that he'll be there first.
Abbinett, I guess you forgot the tens of thousands that LBJ sent to their death in Vietnam. Remember Nixon, He stopped that war. We should have just carpet bombed Iraq and been done with it, but it is your party that has our soldiers fighting with one arm tied behind their back. Nice to see we have a tax cheater running the treasury under Obama. And the aforementioned Chappequiddick swimmer still getting voted in by the sheep. While you point fingers at every Republican, your Democrat leaders are picking your pocket and running this country into the ground. Oh, let's not forget the lies that got Clinton impeached, only to be saved because his party in the Senate saved their boy. Note that I also said Nevada needs to get rid of Ensign too. Unlike Democrats, your average Republican does not support those in the party who go bad.
harrys our horse? I'd rather have an honest jackass! Two terms should be enough for these rats anyway.Besides,that gives them enough time to break bread with the lobbyist scum for which all those votes they made can finally be cashed in.
If we lose Reid we also lose our position as a viable State in the Senate. Reid may not be the best at this point, but at least as Senate Majority Leader he wields some power. Losing Reid will reduce us to a second-class State again.
To the Republicans: don't be so quick to back just anyone who might be running. Tarkanian is a moron whose only claim to fame is his father. And Lowden would be a one-trick pony, doing what she could to take care of the casinos.
I support Reed but what has he done for us lately ??
I will be so proud of Nevada if they do the right thing and vote Pinky out of office.
The selfish voter would want to keep the guy in office for the benefit of the Nevada pork.
Pincipal over dollars for the good of our Nation.
Wheres birdbrain running his mouth about uncle harry?Maybe we can post a comment without the brainless drabble that flows so easily from that fool!
I grew up in Las Vegas, been here over 40 years. Back in the day, the Mormons ran this town. Harry has always been able to count on Mormon support, but not now. Now that Mormons know his true colors (very liberal, not conservative) some Mormons I'm told are calling for his ex-communication! He tows the socialist party line which is against the fundamental nature of Mormons who want small government with moral laws that leave people alone and allow business to thrive. That is not what Reid represents, and he will lose because enough people are upset enough to fill up their SUV's and Hummers with anti-Reid voters and take them to the polls this next election.
Can Tark the Shark's kid be the one to topple Reid? Of course! Any OUTSIDER has a shot! Hell, I say throw out all of the politicians, Republican and Democrats and continue to throw out the incumbents until they pass term limit legislation. These bums mortgaged our future and lined the pockets of the bankers and AIG (Foreigners) for what? NOTHING! To DESTROY THE MIDDLE CLASS! Well the MIDDLE CLASS WILL RISE UP AND BITE ALL THESE BUMS IN THEIR COLLECTIVE ARSE!
As much as "Pinkie" Reid's political & religious values are opposed to my own (Liberal Leftwinger vs. Christian Conservative), I see no way any opponent can topple him in 2010. He's still riding the 06 and 08 Democratic party waves, and his war chest is full of crooked money compared to any would-be opponent. Unbeatable in 2010, hate to say.
Unbeatable? Only Diebold can beat the will of the people! Even the illegals and liberals will vote against him if the economy, and more importantly, our economy here in Vegas continues a downward slide, and guess what, IT WILL! What do you see on that there horizon that can turn this behemoth ship around? NOTHING! What I see is a devalued dollar, higher deficits, more unemployment which leads to more foreclosures which leads to lower real estate values which is what I call a viscous circle if there ever was one! Thanks to Obama, business' are now scared to convention here in Vegas.
Bottom line, our economy is not going to grow but the soup lines will grow, and someone is going to have to pay the piper to feed the hoards of families that can't find work. I will bet my left arm that Obama and Reid will soon start pushing for a VAT tax and higher taxes in general to help fill the gap. These new taxes will put even more businesses out of business and force even more unemployment. With the economy squarely in the tank and with no way to get out of the ...what did Bush I call it, "Malaise"?, not even the liberals will support this bum. Are the Repubicans the the answer? Hell no! Bush was more liberal than Satin as far as I'm concerned! We need new blood in office, and that is what I believe the people will favor. Again, only diebold can keep these bums in office.
Prophets of doom aren't taken seriously. Only those that predict true situations can be taken seriously.
The Prophet only speaks the truth, take it for what it is worth. I am not saying that Reid will or will not win. I am only saying that if he does win, it will not be because of the will of the people. We the people do not want him. PERIOD!
True situations! These mule skinners are bought and paid for. If they would stop licking the boots of the lobbyist to advance personal gain, We the people would have some sort of voice in these life changing votes. Who am I kidding!
"Liberal Leftwinger vs. Christian Conservative"
Hahaha.... I just threw up a little.
Somehow you are synonymizing "Christian" with "conservative" and saying that "liberal" or "left-wing" is somehow in contrast with "Christian"
Is it painful being so self-righteous?
As for the prophet claiming that Harry Reid has always been able to count on the Mormon vote.... that's misinformation at best and festering bull____ at worst. Reid has never counted on, nor received, the Mormon vote.... ever.
The truth sets people free. Read it as I write it and weep.
I'm suprised this obviously democratic paper even printed this....Bye Bye Harry!
The Democrats will still win.
Reid will have tons of cash.
They will do a dirt and smear campaign accusing the other person of supporting porn, drug use, stealing money, beating their spouse, supporting cancer, etc...
Just like they did to win the Nevada State Senate. It worked like a charm and the voters were clueless about it.
I just wish the Republicans had the balls to fight like that.
Jeff, Reid is Mormon. I've read that NV is about 7.5% Mormon. In 2004, exit polls came up with these figures:
VOTE BY RELIGION
TOTAL Reid Ziser None of These
Protestant(52%) 53% 46% 1%
Catholic(25%) 68% 28% 1%
Jewish(4%) 67% 31% *
Other(5%) 89% 11% 1%
None(14%) 73% 21% 2%
Now we know that the Atheists (none), Jews and Catholics are going to support Reid as a whole again and again. (3-1) However, it's the "others" and "protestants" who supported Reid that makes me feel he's still getting Mormon support. Also, he was put into power eons ago due to the Mormon vote.
I'd like to see exit polls this time around to ask people if they're Mormon so that we know once and for all if Mormons are secretly pushing for their guy behind closed doors. In the final analysis, even if his politics is against most Mormons' belief system, he's still one of them, and he's still the highest ranking Mormon politician today. In other words, Mormons have to grow some nuts (organize, become vocal opponents) and vote this guy out of office!
... Having started my award-winning career as an international print-journalist of 35+ yrs. at the Right-Wing/GOP R-J, I wouldn't-put-stock in ANY poll they EVER commission!!!
Hey "Bakersfield" I haven't forgotten anything about LBJ - but, obviously you've forgotten that Nixon promised to end the war in Vietnam in 1968, then secretly extended it while politically manipulating the public for his own selfish purposes in getting re-elected in 1972! So, let's put the blame where it belongs on LBJ and Nixon shall we?
By the way, I was in Vietnam in '72 and more U S Troops died under Nixon than under LBJ!
25 million dollars will not save this fool. Again, he doesn't get it. People of Nevada want a leader with vision that properly represents us not some idiot that does what ever the hell he wants and hides from us. Harry Reid is GONE next year and he deserves his faith. It's what happens when you loose your way. What a moron!
just what you guys need, oh danny boy. at least unlv will be able to go back to getting thugs for their basketball program. danny will be another shill for ceo's.
Sergio--
I know that Reid is Mormon.
I am Mormon myself and have lived my entire life in Las Vegas.
Believe me... Harry Reid does not have the Mormon vote... He is and has been VERY unpopular among Mormons.
I am one of the few Mormon Reid supporters and I am constantly asked how I can possibly support a candidate who, in their eyes, acts "with blatant disregard for our belief system."
Jeff,
If true, I'm glad he doesn't have mass support from Mormons. I'm not Mormon but grew up in LV and there were 3 Mormon families on my street, lived several blocks from the old 24th ward. Some worked for Howard Hughes, others were into construction, teaching, etc. One was a politician. All were very honest, good, moral people I respected. I grew up hearing about their good family values, reliance upon ones self and not the government, being charitable, etc. I know Harry thinks that his political world view jives with his faith, but not even being Mormon, simply having been raised around them, I know this can't possibly be true! Where in the Mormon faith can one reconcile taking tax payers money to kill unborn children? What about the Constitutional rights of those kids? What's the difference between killing a 5 month old baby in it's life support system (mothers womb) and allowing it to be born and tossing it in the garbage? At least in the garbage dumpster it has a CHANCE to be found and saved! Ol Harry supports killing babies, and using your tax dollars to do it, period. Any god fearing person should fight against abortion, PERIOD! What is the phrase in the bible, "faith without works is dead". Who cares what you say or believe if your works say otherwise? "Talk ain't sh-t", as the late Berrie Mac used to say, and he was right! Reid says one thing, says he represents one thing, and his actions say something else, the truth. We are what we do, not what we say. I can say I'm a good guy and if I cut a babies head and arms off and toss it into the garbage, am I a good guy or am I a scum bag? You tell me. Besides the abortion issue, Reid is pushing for socialist policies that are doing away with the middle class and making people dependent upon the government. Jesus made people fishers of men. Reid wants to make people dependent upon free fish handouts. He's sold his sole to the devil and does not represent the the values of our independent state and it's mostly good, hard working people. He is an embarrassment to most Mormons and is a hellofa ambassador for your church among true conservatives!
Like some of the other commentors here, I too grew up in Nevada, both in Tahoe and Las Vegas.
I first met Harry Reid when I was in high school and he was Lt. Governor. My instincts as a youth told me that he was not someone who could be trusted, yet alone represent me in government.
His service on the Gaming Control Board, in the US House, and the US Sente have all proven that my instincts were correct. Harry does not serve those that elected him. Harry serves Harry.
I sense that Harry Reid no longer represents the values of the Nevada that I grew up in. But then again, Nevada has been so Californicated in the last 30 years that it no longer has the conservative, limited government, values that we saw with leaders like Mike O'Callahan and Paul Laxalt.
So I agree with the commentor who basically said that anybody but Harry is the right choice.
How do voters in Nevada feel about Sen. Reid leading the fight to push through the Federal Hate Crimes Bill?
Reid seems to be obsessed with the idea that homosexuals, Latinos, Blacks, MUSLIMS and the disabled are being terrorized every day by evil White Christian Americans and America needs European Union, Canadian style Hate Crimes/Hate Speech laws, Human Rights Commissions to persecute anyone does, says or thinks anything negative about official politically correct victim groups.
In particular I wonder how regular Nevada voters think of Harry Reid's really bizarre theory that Muslims and homosexuals in America share much of anything and was 9-11-01 caused by evil White heterosexual Christians who were intolerant of gays and Muslims?
Wow - Reid is really senile and has become a born again, politically correct cultural marxist. Can't the LDS church ex communicate someone?
Check out this video on Harry Reid's embrace of Fed Hate Crime Laws.
http://www.youtube.com/user/itsareligion...