Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

ODDS ’N’ ENDS:

Why lines predict more wins than are possible

2009 NFL Regular-season Wins

Updated lines from Las Vegas Hilton. Lines subject to change.

  • Cardinals: 8.5 over, even money
  • Falcons: 8.5 over, even money
  • Ravens: 8.5 over, minus 170
  • Bills: 7.5 over, minus 130
  • Panthers: 8.5 over, even money
  • Bears: 8.5 over, minus 160
  • Bengals: 7 over, minus 110
  • Browns: 6.5 over, even money
  • Cowboys: 9 over, minus 130
  • Broncos: 7 over, plus 160
  • Lions: 5 over, plus 145
  • Packers: 9 over, plus 110
  • Texans: 8.5 over, plus 115
  • Colts: 10
  • Jaguars: 8 over, minus 140
  • Chiefs: 6
  • Dolphins: 7
  • Vikings: 9 over, minus 125
  • Patriots: 11.5 over, minus 125
  • Saints: 9 over, even money
  • Giants: 10 over, plus 140
  • Jets: 7.5 over, plus 105
  • Raiders: 5.5 over, minus 160
  • Eagles: 9.5 over, minus 150
  • Steelers: 10.5 over, minus 140
  • Chargers: 10
  • 49ers: 7 over, minus 140
  • Seahawks: 8 over, minus 115
  • Rams: 5.5 over, minus 165
  • Bucs: 6.5 over, plus 145
  • Titans: 9
  • Redskins: 8

Barring some unusual circumstances, a total of 256 cumulative victories is expected in the NFL this regular season.

It’s easy enough to arrive at that figure: There are 32 teams in the league, each with a 16-game schedule.

Yet in Las Vegas, where bettors wager on the over/under of the number of each NFL team’s regular-season victories, the projected cumulative total of victories for the league always comes in a bit higher than 256.

Today, for example, the consensus figure — determined by adding up the over/under total on the board for each individual team — stands at around 259 1/2 victories.

Those 3 1/2 phantom wins do not indicate anything untoward is going on with NFL season-win wagering. It’s just that bettors generally prefer betting “overs” to “unders” — probably because it’s fun to “root your team home” — and the Las Vegas line reflects that inclination.

In fact, since NFL regular-season victory lines were posted in the spring, the betting marketplace has shown a “bullish” disposition on no fewer than seven teams, driving up their season-win lines by at least a half-game.

The market has been “bearish” on only two teams, driving down their season-win lines by a half-game each.

(As always, betting lines can change by the minute and vary by casino property.)

Although it’s unscientific, watching line moves in NFL team season-win wagering can offer clues as to how teams are perceived by bettors heading into the season.

The market has been exceptionally bullish, for instance, on the following four teams:

• Cincinnati Bengals. The line on the Bengals, a “trendy” dark-horse pick to make the playoffs in some quarters, opened at 6 regular-season victories, albeit with a high premium of about minus 155 (risk $1.55 to net $1) on the over. The Bengals were bet up to 6 1/2 and then to 7 victories, minus 110 on either the over or the under. Every half-game is crucial in NFL season-win betting, so a move of a full game is certainly worth noting.

• Atlanta Falcons. The line on the Falcons has drifted up from 8, minus 120 on the over, to 8 1/2, even money on the over — a move of nearly a solid half-game.

• San Diego Chargers. The line on the Chargers opened at 9 1/2, over minus 120, and now stands at 10 victories, over minus 110.

• Seattle Seahawks. The line on the Seahawks has been adjusted from 7 1/2 to 8 victories, with a premium on the over in each case. It was over 7 1/2, minus 140, and is now over 8, minus 115.

The market has been somewhat bullish on the following three teams:

• Houston Texans. The line on the Texans increased from 8 to 8 1/2, but with a premium of minus 135 for bettors playing under 8 1/2.

• New Orleans Saints. After opening at 8 1/2, over minus 150, the line on the Saints stands at 9, under minus 120.

• New York Jets. The number of wins for the Jets went from 7 to 7 1/2, but the money line was minus 145 on over 7 and is minus 125 on under 7 1/2.

In addition to those seven teams, the Pittsburgh Steelers have drawn some support as well. The line on the Steelers remains at 10 1/2 victories, but the price on over 10 1/2 has gone from even money to minus 140.

The market has shown bearish tendencies on these two teams:

• Denver Broncos. The line on the Broncos opened at 7 1/2, under minus 130, and has been bet to 7, under minus 180.

• Cleveland Browns. Cleveland has been bet from 7, under minus 150, to 6 1/2, under minus 120.

Jeff Haney can be reached at 259-4041 or at [email protected].

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