Political maneuvering for 2010 elections

By Jon Ralston

Friday, Aug. 7, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

Emptying the reporter’s notebook with reckless, idle and remotely fact-based speculation:

• Anointment brings disappointment? News this week that County Commission Chairman Rory Reid has won the endorsement of the local machinists union continues a gubernatorial anointment drumbeat.

“The last few years under Jim Gibbons have been devastating for working families in Nevada, struggling to make ends meet,” Local 845 President Richard Dishman wrote to Reid the Younger. “With new leadership and a fresh start, we can change Carson City and put the middle class first again. We know you’ll fight for good jobs, new industry to our state, and the education system our children deserve. That’s why you can count on us to stand with you throughout this campaign.”

Touching, eh?

I suppose there are two ways to look at this kind of endorsement, complete with boilerplate, meaningless language. One point of view is that, as with the building trades and carpenters, Reid has demonstrated an ability to induce special interests to get on board early, thus creating the impression that he is the only candidate worth talking about on the Democratic side. But another perspective might be that these unions are exposing themselves as pawns of a ruthless anointment Reid the Elder would be proud of, without regard to any principles or substance and with only an eye on being with the winner.

But the latter sounds so Machiavellian and cynical that I can’t possibly subscribe to it.

• Will Reid the Younger be the only Democratic candidate? As the time for prospective candidates for major offices to declare themselves (or not) is close at hand, many Democrats continue to wonder whether he will have an opponent. Many partisans are now starting to believe that Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley, even though she would be formidable in a primary against Reid, is unlikely to run, opting instead to spend more time with her family after spending more than a decade in public life.

Buckley certainly could rev up a campaign and be competitive in no time. But several observers say they have seen the fire in her belly start to burn less brightly and with few out there to stoke it, it seems less and less likely she will run.

• So what about the Republicans? I can’t imagine Ø is having much luck raising money — Jim who? — so my guess is even this relatively clueless/delusional incumbent eventually will decide all in all he’d rather be in Lamoille. But some Republicans continue to murmur that they don’t believe either Joe Heck, the former state senator, or Mike Montandon, the ex-North Las Vegas mayor, can defeat a heavily moneyed Reid the Younger campaign in an increasingly Democratic state.

I am hardly sure that is correct, especially if the issue of two Reids being on the ballot can be exploited. Nonetheless, some GOP insiders are playing a game called Waiting for Brian — as in Sandoval, the federal judge, former attorney general and ex-assemblyman. If Sandoval, reportedly afflicted with judicial ennui, decides to trade his robe for the mantle of GOP savior, he could change the dynamic of the race — on both sides.

• And speaking of GOP saviors ... Whither Dean Heller, the congressman who National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn all but described as the Second Coming in his ongoing campaign to induce him to run in the country’s marquee race of Campaign 2010 against Reid the Elder. Republicans are hoping for a candidacy announcement this month, but may be disappointed.

I have long believed Heller was the most potent GOP contender against the Senate majority leader because he is such a stark contrast to Reid — young, telegenic, northerner. I think Heller would enter the race as no worse than even money and if the national atmospherics are right, perhaps a slight favorite.

But having said that, would he risk a safe seat, a perch on Ways and Means and his place at the front of the John Ensign vulture line? That’s a tough call, no matter how many national types are telling him he’s the greatest thing since John Thune.

If Heller doesn’t run, though, the Republicans are left with Snow White and at least seven dwarves. Snow White, aka GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, may run if Heller opts out, believing as many Republicans do that even though his numbers are abysmal, Reid may not be taken out by a dwarf — even a dwarf who can self-fund.

The only decision for Lowden is whether she wants to get into a campaign against the man Republicans love to call Dirty Harry. After a go-round with him, nobody looks like Snow White anymore.