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twitterTHE ECONOMY:
Recovery in Vegas? Not so fast
Growth, tourism — our economic pillars — show no sign of rebound, keeping upturn at bay, experts say
Sunday, Aug. 2, 2009 | 2 a.m.
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Las Vegas will take much longer than the rest of the country to emerge from the recession, according to several local economists. And once it does, the good old days won’t be coming back.
Without a major effort to broaden and strengthen the foundation of the local economy, this is what they see as the new normal for Las Vegas: flat or at-best much slower population growth, higher-than-average unemployment, slow wage growth.
“We will lag the national economy instead of leading it,” UNLV economist Bill Robinson said.
In the past two decades, national recessions coincided with the opening of exciting new resorts — the Mirage in 1989 and the Palms after Sept. 11. These new visitor-magnets, combined with the steady migration of Americans toward the Sun Belt, helped blunt the effect of downturns.
This time, when the country finally awakes from its economic stupor, no such luck.
For one thing, California is the resort industry’s best customer base, and the economy there is as bad as it is here, with 11.6 percent unemployment, high rates of foreclosure, and homeowners who owe more on their homes than they are worth.
Nationally, Americans will have less discretionary income to spend on big-ticket items, such as trips to Las Vegas, because the debt binge is finished, said Jeremy Aguero, principal of the economics consulting firm Applied Analysis.
John Restrepo, vice chairman of the state’s official forecasting body the Economic Forum, said he believes there is a “fundamental shift” in American attitudes toward spending and debt, with at least marginally more conservative views taking hold.
Even once the business starts coming back, “We have excess capacity and excess labor supply,” said Keith Schwer, director of The Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV.
The opening of CityCenter, which would otherwise offer a moment of hope, will exacerbate a problem — too many hotel rooms. An influx of visitors won’t likely fill up all the new hotels. By the end of 2011, there will be more than 16,000 hotel rooms added to the 140,000 in inventory at the beginning of this year, plus innumerable condo-hotel towers and time share units that add to the total.
All the new capacity will further force down room rates, well below what investors assumed in their projections as they designed the projects.
At mid-level properties, rooms will go for a song.
With low room rates cutting into profit margins, as well as a tight credit market, there will likely be no new projects for years, and mid-level properties will struggle to find money to renovate.
Operators will have one advantage: The Clark County unemployment rate is 12.3 percent, and that doesn’t count all the people who have stopped trying or are working part-time even though they would rather be full-time, thus pushing the effective rate near 20 percent, or “Great Depression numbers,” as Robinson put it. This will give management significant leverage over workers, which will depress wages.
With high unemployment and no new Strip projects, fewer people in search of opportunity will come here.
Less growth will hurt demand for new housing.
Given the glut of commercial property — empty strip malls and office complexes — there will be little need to build any of that anymore.
The upshot: The tourism and hospitality industries will slowly recover, but construction won’t.
This comes after a decade in which construction and development were seen as a strong second pillar of the Southern Nevada economy.
Instead, Las Vegas will again be a one-trick pony, albeit with a more opulent saddle than the previous version.
It turns out the assumption that construction and development could be a second pillar of our economy was foolish, economists say.
“It sounds pretty unsustainable when you think about it,” said Elliott Parker, an economist at the University of Nevada, Reno. “Construction workers building houses for construction workers who were here to build houses for other construction workers.”
It was all predicated on home prices rising forever.
To paraphrase the late economist Herbert Stein, things that can’t go on forever, don’t.
•••
So what now?
There is some hope that the old growth model might deliver some relief, if not right away, then in the medium term.
Aguero has said he sees signs of optimism in the residential market, as robust home sales are finally outstripping new foreclosures, and prices seem to be stabilizing.
Also, the climate never hurts.
Lee McPheters, economist and director of the JPMorgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, said he expects that once the national economy begins to recover and people can sell their homes back East for a decent price, they will seek sunshine — and now, affordable homes — out West.
But the consensus among economists is that the state must pursue a new economic strategy, one that will produce a more sustainable prosperity.
Experts say Las Vegas has two options.
One is to wring more out of travel, tourism and conventions.
To some extent, the city is working that angle, and with some success.
“Las Vegas has repositioned itself as a substitute good,” Aguero said. “Come and spend your tourism dollars here because they will go farther than in Paris or New York.”
The recession is clearly lighting a fire under operators to be more creative, while also offering better rates.
More needs to be done, Robinson said. He said too many properties are essentially the same. Spacious, opulent lobby, pool and club debauch, restaurants and gaming tables.
Harrah’s proposed pedestrian mall with bars and restaurants is a nod in a new direction. A big-time amusement park would be another.
Policymakers can also hope to make the city more of a business hub for the travel and tourism industry, with more airline and hotel corporate headquarters, or startup software companies that would service the hospitality industry.
These developments would create high-paying jobs for educated, highly skilled workers.
Las Vegas needs more of these educated workers because, as the current recession has shown, low-skill jobs are more likely to get eliminated in a downturn. Robinson noted that the national unemployment rate for college-educated workers is 4.7 percent, roughly half the overall rate.
The other option for Las Vegas is to move into nontourism and travel — the longtime holy grail of economic diversification.
In some respects, elected officials and other policymakers have been trying to do this for decades, with mixed results.
The Nevada Development Authority has a long list of companies that have arrived in the past decade, often for the state’s favorable regulatory and tax climate — Nevada is one of a few states without a corporate or personal income tax.
Among the companies are warehousing and call centers, medical firms and energy companies. Zappos.com, the online shoe company just bought by Amazon.com, is a cause for real optimism, they say, because it is a next-generation company that relies on a resource in abundance in Las Vegas — customer service.
Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, whose primary duty is to draw new businesses here, said Nevada’s friendly tax and regulatory environment and California’s problems continue to create fertile ground for recruiting new companies.
He has 260 leads, of which 40 percent are renewable energy companies interested in research and development, manufacture of equipment and energy generation, he said.
(Renewable energy is a constant refrain of elected officials, although some experts say it won’t lead to much job creation because the facilities require very little labor once they’re built.)
But while the development authority (phone number: (888) 4-NO-TAXES or (888) 466-8293) and Krolicki tout the state’s low-tax environment, economists here say diversification efforts can’t ignore the role of taxpayer-funded education in economic development.
“There are no simple answers when you’re dead-last in education, when education and technology are the ways you grow,” said Schwer, referring to Southern Nevada’s schools and the state’s struggling universities.
There are two key moments in the rise of American economic dominance, Schwer noted. Mandatory schooling led to a rapid rise in literacy; innovation and engineering feats followed.
Then, after World War II, millions of young men went to college on the GI Bill, and a new period of innovation and domination followed.
Schwer noted that Nevada has succeeded at seeking out new opportunities before, with railroads and the hunt for water, the dam and the Henderson war plants. Then there was the great entrepreneurial wave of the past 20 years, when titans of tourism battled it out to bring an ever more fanciful product to a bigger and bigger paying crowd.
Schwer, Robinson and Elliott offered similar prescriptions: investments in education, health care, culture and infrastructure, creating an environment in which innovators — be it in tourism or something else — can thrive.
The alternative, Restrepo said, is grim. “Without fundamental changes, investments in education and economic diversification, it’s not a great outlook.”
Discussion: 75 comments so far…
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this town was built on gaming-good gaming, untill that comes back forget it. keep giving breaks to super rich and corporations and you'll have a ghost town. article dosen't explain that when ww2 ended and gi's came home we had an explosion of good jobs thanks to unions. families had extra money to vacation. the last 24 years have had a drip drip effect on middle america, good paying jobs are now in china and other 3rd world countries. when families that used to visit vegas can't even participate in cash for clunkers, how the hell they going to have money for vegas.
"Without fundamental changes, investments in education and economic diversification, it's not a great outlook."
The Mantra needed for Nevada to survive.
The Sun has been saying it for years.
What company wants to move here when the infrastructure for families and professionals is so poorly supported by the state?
I suppose Nevada could become one large call center like some third world countries.
Nevada politics are very much like the typical gambler playing for that one win until everything is lost. Forget about the future. Just find that last dollar to play.
its a result of poor planning by local and state government; find the idiot who issued the building permits and put him on display. add empty casinos to the strip malls and commercial buildings already boarded up. blame obama, like steve wynn, if it makes you feel better. in the famous words of the chamber of commerce, war means work for all! re-elect bush/cheney in 2012.
It will take years for this city to come back. You are so right, cnev.
A little off topic here but related anyway. As a person who has been unemployed for several months now, the system they have to apply for extended benefits is so archaic, you will go homeless before you make it thru the bureacratic maze of "Nevada Extended Benefits". But I guess the State employees don't care because THEY have jobs. No wonder people are leaving here to either go to a state where at least they could survive or moving in with family or friends so they don't end up homeless. THe State MUST keep people here in order to survive, especially here in Las Vegas, so job creation is so important. Or else it WILL end up one big call center with plenty of Section 8 housing. I hate to think what is going to happen when Vegas finally hits bottom.
If one drives out to Lake Mead it is possible to see the future of this community. We are headed for a natural disaster and the eventual loss of a tremendous water resource. Those who continue to envision a valley filled from mountain to mountain with housing, shopping centers, parking lots, casinos, resorts, schools, etc. are in for a rude awakening.
Some will never be happy until every inch of desert floor is covered with asphalt or concrete and every mountain top is teeming with houses hanging from the side.
Drought is never predictable and for this valley it is almost certain to continue long into the future; scientific projects, despite those who discount global warming, indicate we are headed for a very long drought. The prospects of returning to normal are very dim at best; plans to hijack water resources from other areas in Nevada is short sighted and without real merit for the long term. It may work for awhile but not for the distant future.
Our community is already facing the problems of over overbuilding and speculation. The strip is a crowded, traffic jammed nightmare to travel for any reason. The plan to continue to build more condo and resort towers is a disaster waiting to happen. The strip in very recent years as become nothing more than a cheapened, sleazy, glitzy version of Coney Island and the old New Jersey Boardwalk. Cheap shops hawking anything from hot dogs to cheap purple glassware and jewelry already crowd the strip. Prostitute and pimps are again beginning to operate freely along the strip. Cheap and sleaze is everywhere along the strip but inside and out of the resorts.
Las Vegas is a ghost town waiting to happen, and it will happen sooner than most believe.
vegas should also do a music festival like sxsw in austin.
we have so many clubs and venues for the bands to play and rooms for them to stay in, it could be a real success.
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the economy will take years in Vegas....this is a no brainer. But it CANNOT remain only a gaming town...hope they realize this.
haven't some of us been saying this for the past year in this website? yet we are knocked down by certain idiots with an interest in property...
I agree Vegas is in for rough times for a few years. All Vegas politicians should be speaking every couple of weeks at luncheons or on programs like Face to Face re-assuring us that there is hope, unfortunately, not all are. Help will not come out of Washington.
Some leaders are showing they have the guts to pass invovative laws like the Nevada Foreclosure Mediation law, or advising Metro to "clean up the clubs". We'll see whether these new ideas will work. The Casinos will need to re-invent themselves, yet again. One thing is for sure, we cannot inch our way out of this problem. Bold sacrifices are required.
Who is really buying the home in LV? Are they mostly real homebuyers or investors hoping to rent them out. Iff too many investors then there may be a case of too rentals chasing too few renters who have jobs. It looks to be a renters market for sure. Construction on the strip, strip malls, and homes are on hold for quite awhile. Local and state governments need to attract businesses that are not in lock-step with the gaming industry.
"Without fundamental changes, investments in education and economic diversification, it's not a great outlook."
Interesting that Harry Reid (with assistance from the Sun) just killed the Yucca Mt. Project which employed roughly 2000 people, over half of whom had MS and PhD degrees in science, had high income and lived right here in the Las Vegas valley. They are, of course, mostly gone now (or soon will be), never to return to this land of gambling troglodites. All of this over something with mind-blowingly-minute probability of safety risk, trumped up by politicians, lawyers and the media. Rather than parlaying this project into significant high tech opportunities, they blow it away. Good luck trying to attract other high-tech companies or opportunities to this area............the only thing Las Vegas is known for is being #1 in everything considered bad by the rest of the country (eg, teen pregnancy, high school drop out rate, lack of water, etc etc) - not really great selling points for MIT grads.
I think the fundamental calculus of LV is sound,however it will have to understand that its success depends on stable families with good jobs paying good wages and benefits with descretionary income to spend. At this moment people are trying salvage what's left of their assets,save for the future,abandon the debt culture and recalibrate their lives. What we with the knowledge of history are witnessing is a paradigm shift in history not unlike the Great Depression,WW2 or the 60's cultural wars.Shifts which lead us to this point in the first place. The decadance,hedonism and nihilism which have directed our lives over the years must be replaced with something that brings value to people's lives and encourages good decision making which usually brings good outcomes thus creating strong individuals, families and communities. Otherwise the nation will continue its decline into the abyss. It may be too late already,lets hope not.
Pass that high tax, freedom restricting
health care bill and things will go from
bad to "disasterous"
Better hope that the job killing "health
care reform bill doesnt pass".
Thanks to the Sun for printing an honest article. Especially about Construction being a failed economic pillar. Nevada, in particular needs serious economic diversification. There is just no way that we can rely upon gaming. Once upon a time, Las Vegas was the only place to go. Then there was Atlantic City. Fine. But since that time, it's just been a downward spiral for gaming. Gamblers can now just find a casino close to them to play games of chance. And between the failed experiments of the 1990's trying to make Vegas into a family resort destination, and the 2000's trying to make it a hipster hot-spot, what was left of Las Vegas that made this city Las Vegas was erased. Kitsch may not have been liked by everyone, but it was certainly what attracted so many tourists here. It may have been the gaudy souvenirs, the Elvis impersonators, the Western-themed places, or even the almost stereotypical cheap food. But that's all gone now in an effort to make Vegas more upscale. And when you do that, you've locked out your best demographic of people who are willing to spend.
Las Vegas does need to diversify, but to what? What resources do we have here? Resources meaning both natural and human. Skilled labor doesn't want to stick around. The Hospitality and Gaming industries have this attitude that people are expendable. This goes from the lowliest person sweeping up cigarette butts, to Vice Presidents. So people are going to leave to comparable salaries and stable work environments elsewhere. Not to mention better housing markets.
As for call centers, they don't pay the kind of salaries that allow people to afford a home. Not to mention they are the most volatile employers as well. Most call centers are not directly owned by corporations, but are retained under contract. If a company decides to cut back, or if they're simply not happy with the level of service being provided, they'll just let the contact expire. And with that, hundreds of people have instantly been laid-off.
As for software companies, as a whole, they can easily be exported to other states, or even countries. Remember Westwood Studios? And as for Hospitality-specific software, there's no future in it. Once something works really well, most hotels will switch over to it. Meaning one company servicing them all. To write software and design products for Las Vegas, one doesn't have to specifically be based here to do that. OPERA PMS is the big new Property Management System used by many LV Resorts now. And if you look at their website, they don't even have an office here!
Las Vegas really doesn't have that much of a bright future. I think that more people will end up being economically trapped here with a low-paying job and no way to leave, versus people who want to help build a community and live here voluntarily. The volitile RE market will ensure that.
vsestini hit the nail on the head, I can't believe so many people can't figure out that you can't have life in a desert unless you have a tremendous amount of energy to transport everything (except for sand and heat) to the middle of the desert.
People need water to live.
No Water = No Life
Go back to school if you don't understand this.
Oh and btw, the economy isn't recovering anywhere. The spin masters in the MSM (who inaccurately predict this "mild" recession) are not the people to be getting answers from.
Got Agua?
This depends on how you define recovery. I believe we are recovering now. 4,000 new homes will be built and sold in 2009. This is one square mile of housing. Several commercial projects in the $50mm to $100mm range are underway. The days of crazy high growth are over forever. But Vegas is growing and will continue to do so. People here are so used to fast growth that they don't understand slow growth. Slow growth is good because it is more permanant and balanced. If the population grows by 1% a year, this is 20,000 people. Which is the equivalent of a small town; every year.
Maybe they need some illegals to fill the houses. They were driving the real estate market. Careful what you wish for.
The best solution is a massive tear down project, funded by government and the private sector to demolish 10% to 20% of all houses and commercial property, starting with the worst, oldest least energy efficient properties.
it IS investors buying the homes.
and there's more and more rental homes on the market, and less and less people to fill them.
there will another wave of foreclosures in about a year once these people aren't able to rent the homes at a rent price that will cover the mortgage.
increase in supply + lower demand = prices fall.
On behalf of myself and the other 750 educated, professional Las Vegas residents who were laid off from the Yucca Mountain Project earlier this year, I just want to thank the Las Vegas Sun, Brian Greenspun, and Harry Reid for your continued progress in turning Southern Nevada into a true desert, economically speaking.
you don't have to look to far mayor offic
To me, the "good old days" were prior to the massive expansion. As soon as the Feds kicked out the mob, the street thugs took over, and so did the developers. We went from organized crime to disorganized chaos. Places like Dunes, Stardust, Desert Inn, and Westward Ho were/are replaced with chic "resorts", everything had to be over-the-top.
Vegas was becoming more like one big theme park (and you can blame Circus Circus Enterprises for much of that, between Excalibur, MGM Grand, NY NY, and Circus Circus itself). It was being marketed more as a "family destination". Sorry, but kids don't gamble, drink booze, get spa treatments, or see topless shows. Go to San Diego or Orlando if you want "family fun". And if you want to go to New York, Venice, Paris, Hollywood, or anywhere else, just go to the real place. We all know these themed casinos present a heavily distorted version of the real thing.
The past decade has focused on "what happens in Vegas", and that turned our town into a mecca for hipsters and wannabe celebs alike. Look no further than Palms, Pure, and even LV Sun. I've never seen a "news source" that gawks at celebs as much as this one (with exception of tabloids). Even Treasure Island re-branded itself to "TI", from a kiddie destination to a place for the young and the hip.
Leave the kids at home, the hipsters in Seattle, and bring back the days of mutual respect, decent comps, and that certain edge we once had. The Strip, as well as Fremont, are both becoming another Bourbon Street (New Orleans has enough problems that we don't need here).
Barrak Obama, Harry Reid and Nancy Peolsi and the Democrat controlled Congress...all of these politicians should be thrown out of office for their reckless policies contributing to this horrific mess! It's like the perfect disaster in the making. Harry Reid MUST go in 2010!!
Yep, blame Democrats for 8 years of Bush/Cheney corruption (6 of those years being a Republican controlled Congress).
Always a brilliant strategy, keep up the propaganda and fear mongering!
"If the population grows by 1% a year, this is 20,000 people. Which is the equivalent of a small town; every year" Wishful thinking - it won't happen if people CAN'T FIND JOBS!!!!!
Don't forget to factor in the 30,000 that have left and/or will leave on a monthly basis; not sure of those numbers but you can't tell me people haven't been leaving here at a rapid pace - try renting a UHaul truck! Just like the heyday of Vegas being the "Fastest growing city with 5000 people moving here every month." In came 5000 while 3000 were leaving. LOLOL - the population growing by 1% every year!!
"I believe we are recovering now. 4,000 new homes will be built and sold in 2009"
We need 4000 new homes here like a hole in the head. That will just add to the....how many homes are on the market now? 10,000? 20,000? And the number keeps growing.....
I bet a lot of people wish they had your optimism.
Yep, blame Democrats for 8 years of Bush/Cheney corruption (6 of those years being a Republican controlled Congress).
Always a brilliant strategy, keep up the propaganda and fear mongering!
************************
Thanks, that needed to be said!!! The problems started in Vegas on WHICH PRESIDENT'S WATCH????
Pass that high tax, freedom restricting
health care bill and things will go from
bad to "disasterous"
Better hope that the job killing "health
care reform bill doesnt pass".
******************************************
Yup, of course. Pecimism always does wonders.
I'm curious as to why so-called "socialized health care" seems to work so well for Canada, much of Europe, and even (gasp!) Cuba. Oddly enough, they also get free education, something our country (and especially our state) needs badly.
Perhaps our health care system wouldn't be the joke of the free world if we made it illegal for politicians to take so many contributions (aka bribes... both Democrat and Republican). Health care related companies have one thing in mind: their shareholders, not your health. They are there to profit, that is why they are publicly traded companies.
Having said all that, good health starts at home. People need to learn how to eat better. Less processed foods, more fruits, veggies and grains, legumes, and lean meats. And no, it doesn't cost more, that's a myth. Learn how to cook, you'd be surprised how easy it can me. Don't have time? Prepare enough meals for the entire week all at once and freeze them, thaw as needed.
This also trickles down to our children too, as they pick up their bad habits from their parents. No more carb-laden breakfast cereals, Pop-Tarts, fruit juices loaded with high fructose corn syrup. Ever hear of water? It's pure and very cheap by comparison.
As for smoking and drinking, that's a no-brainer. But like anything, if done in moderation, and if one has good will-power, these vices, as well as junk food, are okay.
And get an annual checkup. If you can do it for your car and your central air/heating, surely you can do the same (providing you feel your health is worth it).
Lotsa folks trashing Vegas with their comments on this article .... but I wonder why they are staying in a dead town?
what are your plans for your future people?
If vegas is dead why not move to the places that you feel will give you an opportunity to better yourselves?
DessertSun... your comment above makes me laugh and cannot believe the amount of uneducated people here in LV. Please, our problems began three or four years ago, not 6 months ago. Easy credit, greedy corporations..... get a clue. That is where it began.
Well, pmmart, as much as I do like living here, love the weather and will certainly miss Vegas and the very good friends I have made here, I will be leaving soon and going back "east". I'm going back home to be close to family and friends. This way if I still can't find a job soon, at least I'll have a place to live and won't be living on the street, which very well could happen if I stay here. Every State is having serious problems, but I'd rather be close to the ones I love than sitting here in Las Vegas watching the unemployment figures keep going up and watching the city that I will always be crazy about sink deeper into a black hole.
Katie,
I am not operating on idealistic optimism. I am a banker and financial analyst with 25 years of experience. This is my third recession. I am now one of the biggest commercial RE developers in Vegas. My development projects are doing well and I am on the hunt for a new one. I am growing quite wealthy in this economy because I am not fooled by pessimism or fear. I look at the full range of core numbers and make well-researched decisions. Many segments of Vegas are under-served and represent good upside for smart business people.
Sircules, please post some information so we can contact you.
Do you have a blog?
What is your financial institution's name?
We'll keep tabs on your brilliance.
You could be a cheerleader for LVSun, think you can put an article together for us?
Uh Sunnysideup, you mean pessimism not
pecimism. Anyway, read the bill, listen
to small business, it is a disasterous- job killing bill period. This bill will add
3-5% pts to the unemployment rate. Like
Mayor Rudy Guillani said: It will kill alot
of jobs permanently.
Wake up America
Sircules
Congratulations on being successful and becoming "quite wealthy" while so many are having a hard time finding work AND keeping a roof over their head.
How many people have you taken off the unemployment line by hiring them for your successful business? And are paying them more than $9 an hour?
I can't think of any segments of Vegas being under served.
Check back with us in 6 months or a year and tell us how things turned out for you....
PS I've been in the legal profession for 30 years and this is the third recession I've gone through, too, but THIS one has been the toughest.
Be Happy: Less people =less water consumption. Vegas was growing too fast, anyway. Now let's concentrate on what we have and improve on it. Tear down the old and build parks, museums (does Vegas have a tourist-destination museum) - use some of that Fed stimulus money to make Vegas beautiful.
How about a novel idea. Try and get new retired residents to move to Las Vegas !!
Offer incentives to those retired people who have fixed incomes. Offer new residents a couple of years of property tax abatement, or maybe even reduce their property taxes by the amount spent on schools if they dont have children.
They will buy houses at the low prices instead of investors, and this will be a sustainable rally instead of another bubble waiting to happen. Plus, they pay sales taxes for the things that they buy, and they also patronize the casinos !!
I think the $500 bottles of vodka went to everybody's heads. Upscale is nice but it wasn't what made Vegas famous and fun. I started coming to Las Vegas in 1984, you still lost but at least you got your fill of gambling, now it's impossible to win and you feel like you might as well give them your money at the front door. I would never count Vegas out but it's in trouble.
Rudy who? He is not a current mayor and not anything now but a naysayer. Las Vegas needs to slow down. Lots of folks live here and life shall go on. It will disappear in about 20 years when there is not enough water. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.
Wow.. Lots of doom and gloom in this article. It's the stuff that we cannot foresee that will either keep Vegas stagnant or let it recover. I like to think that we have people in this town with the ideas to make this recovery happen in a big way.
There were so-called experts years ago that would say Las Vegas would remain a small gambling town.
It's hilarious how every other story you have yahoos pining for the return of the Mob to Vegas to sweep into the casinos and return to the 'glorious' past. Sorry guys, but like the Disneyland family mega resorts, that time is dead and gone, never to return.
I do agree with the 'fellas' that the gaming industry needs to make Vegas affordable again. There should be room for both the average family with shrinking means as well as the mega-bucks high roller. The glitz attracts the plebes. This is not an "either or" situation. The gaming industry needs to diversify its price range. The casinos need to go back to private ownership.
All of our politicians, Democrat, Republican and Paulite are utterly incapable of doing anything other than what has worked in the past. They all need to go and we need to stop sandbagging smart politicians with some ideals and vision, like Goodman, and buying into self-serving pukes like Reid and misanthropic glad-handlers like Gibson and Ensign or nutty throwbacks like Bob Beers.
As for health insurance and health care reform, heck, why not? Our private-only system is so broken and overburdened that it will completely collapse in a few years anyway. Just expand Medicare to all citizens and leave the private insurance industry to offer the primo plans. What? Do you think you can do any better?
As for illegals? I've never met an illegal immigrant that didn't do anything except work like crazy and build tax paying businesses. However, if immigration grabs them, that's their problem. They broke the law and they have to go home.
As for the future, for all the doom and gloom there are still some bright spots and a ton of unrealized potential. While water shortages abound we have an ideal geological situation for both solar energy and space development. We should be cleaning up manufacturing in the west. Why are the Tesla of the world settling in an overpriced over-developed hell like California when the factories should be here? Because our politicians are too busy sucking-up to the mining industry and Wall Street while pleasing themselves with other people's wives and girlfriends.
The solutions? Acknowledge that we can't grow our land-use footprint anymore. We don't have the resources. Anthem, Summerlin and Alienate is it for suburban sprawl. Water conservation should be prioritized over gaining external resources, but we're going to have to buy more water form somewhere and we might as well learn to conserve as much as possible. Grass lawns and water-hungry tress should be banned from southern Nevada.
Second, we need a high-speed train to LA. It's long, long overdue. Price the seats right and hook it into the right spot in LA and the project will print money. This is one of the things Reid did right and yet, in his typically soft manner failed to power slam the funding through Congress. What good is Senate Majority leader position if he can't get that kind of project for us?
Build up our universities, the creative classes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_cl...) that are responsible for the bulk of our exports attracted to great universities like bees to honey. We need to increase UNLV's budget to attract world-class faculty, expand the number of CSN campuses and build at least one private, world-class research university close to downtown. Look at Atlanta, and that's how our downtown should look. That kind of development also prints money.
The monorail should be bankrupted, snatched from the current ownership and turned over to the transit authority with orders to build an airport and west-side strip extensions post haste. Also, no more ridiculous, so-called public-private partnerships. Those are pork-barrel giveaways of the worst kind. Either a project is public or private, no free lunches for developers.
The state should be chasing every, manufacturing, high-tech and alternative energy development project that comes through the pipeline. We need to lower the room-tax and increase the mining tax. The mining industry are parasites who extract too much mineral wealth and bring in too few jobs.
If anyone else has any suggestions for the future, instead of immature grousing and old-Vegas nostalgia feel free to join in.
Funny how this town works. We're a right to work state, yet we build everything Union. A 30% upcharge easy. We pay police and fire dopes like they're the second coming of Christ. All a bunch of mostly ex-military high school grads making over 100G a year. Our schools are a stinking disgrace, producing mostly tip dependent dumbbells, who now can't find a job.
But I like it here. Retired. Cheap to live in Vegas-my taxes went up $70-for the year. I like the weather. And I especially like the Redneck whiners who obsess about Obama. They're the ones turning out clones-their children. Kinda' like living in Hooterville-Speaking of Sarah Palin, do you fools really think she could daffy her way into the race in 2012? No, I have to give you more credit than that. The Utah Mormon or the Arkansas preacher have a better chance-right?
Niche marketing to groups that know one thought of bringing to Vegas before - At least not from our boosters...
Cultural Tourism
Heritage Tourism
Eco Tourism
Design & Architecture Tourism
The end of overdevelopment creates an opportunity for forward thinking members of the Las Vegas community to deal with the fact that THERE IS NOT ENOUGH WATER before it's too late.
But even if solutions to Las Vegas' water problems are found, it won't matter if Nevada's education of its youth does not improve.
I think the solutions must be found in Carson City not Washington.
OK this is fun to take jabs at others in this town...First off, we are the complete joke of this country! C'mon, booze, gambling, sub-prime mortgage flippin' properties, gambling (oops I already said that), speculation up the wazzooo! Now we all have collective egg on our face after the bubble done burst! And we had crybaby newscasters local news folks urgently begging us to visit our local casinos and "help out the local economy" by visiting our local casinos! I did, got drunk, played slots, and lost it all that I had saved up for a rainy day (now a monsoon)...So this is the big bad Depression those old folks kept warning me about, how their collective childhoods were traumatic and desperation was in the air like death. I thought they were kidding, this is shocking! And I have Mexicans (excuse me, Mexican-Americans) living near me with 5 kids, with 10 more on the way, none of them speak English, and are awaiting low-wage Strip jobs which have disappeared. So 3 out of 4 kids here are Hispanic, and they think its lights-out gold in the streets here compared to where they came from, same problem in California...In 20 years the world will be out of oil, a problem easily a million times as bad as us running out of water I can assure you. We should have a nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Mead, but that would take 12 years to build. This is the problem with sweating local Las Vegas problems, this whole town dies when the world runs out of oil. The world uses 86M barrels a day X 365 days that is 30B a year with proven world reserves of 800B so thats runnin' low after 15-20 yrs. And it's all locked up under Arab control, and they hate us with a passion. So Vegas, your real problem is too many people, no more oil *NOT WATER*
Oh, I've heard this a lot: since 90% of the world's oil is in the Middle East, we should nuke the whole region, turn it into a glass parking lot, and go get our oil! Just plant our flag on top of the burning, smoldering ashes of that bizzare region of people living in the Dark Ages cutting each others heads off! Well, I don't know. So, yea, water is a big problem for Vegas, but really, without oil, this town is a worthless useless pile of crap. It is not self-sufficient, you can't grow anything here. And desert irrigation is a joke, it still uses a lot of water! You have only a few plants that can survive the Mojave region, let's bring them back, they are "ugly" plants but they survive just fine thank you. I'm a biologist, a product of our rotten local schools (and UNLV), but I consider myself intelligent, and the old cliche, you get what out what you put into it...Yea, our school system sucks, but I took all advanced classes with the nerds and mostly aggressive college-bound girls, and I thought UNLV was just fine. I've lived here since 1968, this place grows on you...I feel bad everyone got burned on the housing crisis, it was a collective bong hit, and we were ALL HIGH! How many stories of people flipping properties, flipping condos, flipping rentals, making millions, flipping that, moving to million dollar estates because they made so much flipping houses! Groups of people fighting over listings, lawsuits over who was there first to put the deposit down on a house which went up 200k in 3 weeks in the meantime! We were all amazed. Don't lie.
Until about midway into the comments, I have to say many were insightful, thoughtful and intelligent. Thanks.
As always, the loonies take over to insult and incite.
It wouldn't be Vegas without y'all(no, you probably don't know who you are..)
Vegas will bound back in a big way. It may take 2 or 3 years, but when all the excess rooms are complete, the room rates will fall to a level never seen anywhere in the world. And the world will want to go to Vegas.
mrb: Rather than parlaying this project (Yucca) into significant high tech opportunities, they blow it away. Good luck trying to attract other high-tech companies or opportunities to this area............
Right on! A missed opportunity.
I have a chance to relocate to Vegas in November (all paid for by Company). I am a professional (Masters) and my wife is a nurse. Income = 200K. Have been to Vegas many times in past and have spent much time looking for real estate (Could pay cash for moderate house). Looking for a warmer place to retire.
These are some of the problems I see with Vegas area: (1) Real Estate taxes are way to high, even with no state income tax I would lose money by retiring (in 4 years) in Vegas when I do the math moving from my present State. (2) I am looking for a house with large lot- does master planning exist in the northwest valley - what a mess! (3) High crime- can I feel comfortable leaving my wife when I travel. (4) Lack of city parks to spend time in - much like TX (develop it all). (5) Truthfully- even with prices down 60%, Vegas is still over priced considering the town and what you get for your money!
Just a few thought from an outsider looking in!
I totally agree, cnev.
With this most recent downturn, the cranks and bigots have come out of the woodwork with plenty of excuses to whine, moan and cry for the return of the not-so-glorious past.
Still, you're right, this town wouldn't be half as much fun without the cranks.
We can still do without the bigots. If we deported all the illegals tomorrow it would probably implode the economy.
I agree snowelk.
Las Vegas needs to spend less time building for the sake of building and more time improving the quality of life to attract more educated professionals and executives. We need to be a little more like Seattle and lot less like LA.
I bet the casinos wish they hadnt thrown away the blue prints the mob gave them on how to take peoples money,but still made them feel good? When there are only 2 corp that run the strip and all your eggs are in one basket,what else was gonna happen!And the only people suffering are the people that do the liveing and dieing in this town!!! Good luck LOST AND WASTED
Water Water everywhere, and all of it to drink.
I still cant understand all of the suckers who think Las vegas is the top of the tops. Within a decade it will be dead. No water no life, cant live on beer and coke.
The super glittery gaming halls, nice and cool, plenty of half naked chicks about, but out side its like 110F, and from what I have read from other comments, there are thousands of illegal immigrants everywhere, all begging for a handout.
Why not invite the mob back. At least they had a little class. Now we promote "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas". That does not draw the best class of tourists to Vegas. We should shoot the archetects and building codes that allowed builders to turn the strip into a joke. It looks terrible, like the house on the block with the pink flamingos in the yard. You can't drive it, the archetechure blocks your view, the illegals stand shoulder to shoulder handing out escort cards, which end up as tossed on the street. Outside bars by Harrah's,and the Imperial Palace along with Margaritaville and others allow binge drinking drunks all over outside. There is no dress code anywhere What do you expect?
johnd9425
Sounds like a real little sh#t hole, and you live there, my God.
There's just too much rain here, back East. I wish it would stop raining.
Surrounded by the Great Lakes, Mighty Rivers, and Oceans, there's just too much water.
If gas and electricity can be transported by pipelines and relay stations, why not water.
In addtion water from the Eastern States would not even have to be treated until it reached its destinations in the water parched states of the Southwest. Those States, as part of their investment, would treat the water upon its arrival there.
Who knows may food like pizza and bagels wouldn't taste like crap any more once you leave the Northeast.
OK, it's not bigotry! Get it right! Millions of illegal immigrants moved here to work, God Bless them! They did work no one wanted to do, roofing houses, digging landscaping, framing, stonework, labor, maidservice, janitorial, kitchen work, etc...yes, this boom couldn't have happened without them! The problem is that their numerous kids have nothing to do and don't speak English so what do they do? You can spend on our school system until you puke, it won't help! These Gangbangers and Hispanic youths don't care about learning engineering, chemistry, calculus, etc. they want to work for the Casinos and there are no jobs anymore...I just saw a story where a refrigerator truck was caught crossin' the border with 68 illegals stuffed inside! Does this mean anything to anybody but to call me a racist/bigot! Have you seen our city's elementary schools, almost no white faces. So we have the worst schools in the country, what do you propose to do, blow billions on them, for kids who don't care and kill each other in front of the schools? Yea, there are some good students that want to learn, so they can get a great educational foundation and get the H&%* out of this joke of a town!
Does anyone know anyone here who has actually won at playing slots and hanging out at our lovely local casinos (besides the lucky few who have hit Megabucks or Wheel of Fortune)...all I see is alcoholism, DUI's, misery, lost savings/pensions, divorces, broken families, jokes of lives! This town was built to soak the tourists not prey on locals us poor slobs who live here are targets! We have to live here, and pray that you don't drink alcohol or forget it, you are THE TARGET! The only people hiring here are the cops because they have such a racket with all the DUI's! But the local casino owners own the media here and we all know it! Let's interview all the "loveable losers" who have dumped it all playing slots at our favorite bars/taverns/casinos! That would be fun...this town is parasitic, and they've finally killed the goose that laid the golden egg...Vegas is the worst economy besides Detroit. We need more rich retired people to move here and lose their life savings chasing elusive slot jackpots! By living here, you realize this town destroys peoples' lives, you have to understand this. It may not be your fault directly, but you can't deny what this town is all about! If they ban drinking (like they should) it's all over, people won't sit at slots for hours on end losing everything unless they're smoking & drinking continuosly. I don't feel bad for the tourists that come here, have fun, THEN LEAVE...I feel bad for the locals who are exposed to this gambling charade as being a fun-time thing to do. Yea, when the MOB ran Vegas in the 50's-70's there were no local casinos to prey on locals, they left us alone, so yea that was better!
61 postings and counting...
This topic seems to be on the minds of many who've taken the time to add their opinion.
We're frequent visitors to Vegas from the Midwest. Las Vegas is changing - no doubt about it.
But the one thing that keeps us coming back is this city is like no other in the United States.
It is unique in all aspects. You have many features, items, and way of life that cannot be duplicated anywhere.
It would be easy to point fingers; play the blame game, throw politics, "Corporate America", illegal aliens, and anything else you want into the mix to bring us to today...and especially to look forward to tomorrow.
When not in Vegas, I like to read this paper to get a pulse of what's going on...Yes, it's as bad as anywhere else - in some aspects maybe even worse.
What interests me is the response and outrage generated several weeks ago when one of the "Welcome to Las Vegas" signs was tagged.
The pride for this unique city was very evident by its residents and visitors alike! And likewise with this article, and the subsequent postings that many of you've taken time to post!
You cannot go back to "the good old days." You cannot turn back time or mimic it.
What you can do is grasp - with knowledge and understanding - that Vegas has history, and has continued to thrive. To take that information, and to try new and innovative things is what Vegas in all about.
Besides innovation, solutions are bountiful if you take the time to listen to what people have to say.
It is one thing to complain or point out a problem. It you do that, then you must be willing to offer ideas and suggestions as a solution.
Construction in this state is dead and won't be back for a very long time. We have an over-abundance of everything (housing stock, retail space, casinos) and that's not going to change under a Dem or GOP administration, stimulus or not.
As for low wage low skill jobs (aka entry level jobs), those are also going to be in short supply for a very long time. If you don't have a technical certificate or higher, you might as well not come here because there won't be enough jobs for the homegrown let alone imports.
And while Vegas & Nevada need to try and capitalize on the past, education is probably the best bet for getting the economy back on a sound financial footing, though it may not generate very many new jobs in the short term. Alternative power, water/energy management/efficiencies, DoD/DoE development, int'l tourism/commerce all hold potential for an educated workforce here in Nevada, and collectively may be a third leg for economy (tourism & natural resources being the other two). But they require a highly educated workforce and partnerships with outside entities, and won't be a quick fix for our current ills.
On the plus side, a stagnant economy will eventually stabilize or even reduce the population size, which in combination with more aggressive conservation schemes, may save us from our biggest threat -- lack of water. Stabilizing the population, maintaining the existing tourist-driven revenue stream, and generating an environment that encourages the creation of targeted high-end technical/research jobs is probably the only way we can maintain or improve our quality of life and avoid becoming even more like LA.
The water problem is easy to solve. Seventy percent of the water we pipe from Lake Mead is for non-culinary uses. Read that as 70% watering your gdam lawns.
People living in the desert demanding lawns should be forcibly sterilized to remove them from the gene pool.
Anyway, outlaw lawns and we can pack another million players .. er I mean people into this valley.
The infrastructure issue is pathetic though. We have a private company collecting garbage? What is up with that? That should be included in the property tax and run by the county, not a private for profit entity.
And the pay we squander on public employees here is amazing. I would love to see pay comparisons between city-county-state positions in NV and some third world state like Alabama (which is more representative of the services we get here). I mean I know our public employees all have gambling/hooker/drug problems to pay for (or they would still be working in California) but you gotta draw the line somewhere.
right on, angry reader. dont let them get too comfortable, they might think they are doing something for the public good.
What a joke some of you are! You think the average pay of $55,000 dollars a year is to much for a state employee like a highway patrol trooper (with 10 years on the force and a bachelors degree)? Compare that with the 400K the average mortagage broker (with a 6 week real estate course under the belt) made in Vegas in 2007 (as they forged loans for people who couldn't afford them) or a poker dealer at the Wynn who makes a 100K a year for dealing two cards to player nine players at the table. Remember, you get what you pay for. Try paying for the average house in Vegas in 2007 (300K) on a measly 55K a year.
Did you know that before this real estate/Broker made mess the State couldn't even get enough qualified applicants to be Troopers after all the drug users and felons were elimnated from the applicant pool. Wake up NV, start paying public employees a decent salary and you might find the quality of the service and the educational system gets dramatically better and you are a little safer in your home!
A letter to the banks:
If you think not listing the homes that are sitting empty is going to fool us into thinking that the housing market is low on inventory, you are mistaken. The only people that would believe that are morons. So now your selling what inventory you will list to investors from California who in turn are going to turn these homes into rental properties? @#* holes!
How many of you out there want mostly rental homes in your neighborhoods? Its coming so be prepared for your property values to hit the dirt even further. In our development alone 3 out 10 homes are sitting empty, with no for sale sign on them. I'm sick and tired of banks, realtors, brokers, etc. trying to manipulate the housing market by telling lies. Frankly, I agree with the comment above. Its time to get the hell out here and go back to Seattle. Vegas hasn't even seen the worst of whats going to happen. Wait till City Center is complete, and you have 8000 more jobless construction workers!
"Vegas will bound back in a big way. It may take 2 or 3 years, but when all the excess rooms are complete, the room rates will fall to a level never seen anywhere in the world. And the world will want to go to Vegas"
*****
Wishful thinking. It's going to take more than low room rates. Factor in air fare, which is causing people not to come here now because air fares are outrageous coming here. Factor in if people are working again and if they are - are they going to p*** away their money on coming to Vegas? And gamble when they can get in their car and drive half hour to the nearest casino where they live instead? It's going to take a lot longer than 2 or 3 years for Vegas to bounce back - and if we have learned anything - we cannot depend just on tourism dollars to keep the city afloat.
When this recession ends, and it will someday, I believe the whole country will have learned something. Don't take anything for granted. It's here one day, and gone the next, and that includes Las Vegas. NOTHING will be the same again.
And frankly, I hope I'm one of those that will be coming back here all the time!!!
Robert Reich - I believe he was an advisor to William Jefferson Clinton - says that we won't come back from this one. Of course we will survive and what emerges will be different - we are on the edge of the future. It is painful but it is also exciting. Las Vegas does offer innovation in the mix of the wonders of the world. We shall see if it shakes out before the Lake dries up!
"The water problem is easy to solve. Seventy percent of the water we pipe from Lake Mead is for non-culinary uses. Read that as 70% watering your gdam lawns.
People living in the desert demanding lawns should be forcibly sterilized to remove them from the gene pool."
HURRAY! That is really funny!!! Well, people love lawns! This desert landscaping is a joke, it takes a lot of water still, because if you've invested 10k-100k or more for all those beautiful non-native trees and plants, in the summer they can all die from lack of water or stress, but you won't know it until they are actually dying/dead, so people turn their drippers on for hours hoping to forestall this! Now all the misters are banned, I can't sit outside at a restaurant without getting cooked. I don't know, a backyard of dirt or just crushed decorative red rock makes me feel like that lonely camera on Mars taking pics! We all cry and yearn for lawns, pretty Mediterranian foliage, bottle brush trees, African gum trees, flowers, etc...It takes a lot of water from Colorado, water that is disappearing forever...And pools, they evaporate a ton, so much water is used there as well...and the hi-roller or mid-roller tourists want to play golf! And the business junket people want to play golf or see some green before they deposit their green in our machine(s)!!!!!!!
realtors do not manipulate the market, idiot.
that is an excuse dumb people use to justify why they thought they could get a $400,000 house with a $9.00 per hour job.
do you blame the guy that stocks the produce at albertson's for the price of peaches?
I are not an idiot! No really, the massive speculation that drove up real estate of all kinds (commercial, residential, condo, hotel, land, timeshare) everything really, this occurred all over the world! This was a global problem! Everyone was in on it..."The Bubble" will be talked about as in the same context as "The Great Depression" (not nearly as bad of course) but the global aspect affecting everyone at the same time, it is really unbelievable, and yes the markets were manipulated with Nitro jet fuel. Just witness the collapse of Bear, Lehman, AIG, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, Countrywide, many global banks, collapse of markets, wipeouts of billionares everywhere, millions of people losing their homes, you think all this was caused JUST by "dumb people" (I suppose you mean consumers or homeowners)...It took the collective efforts of everyone to blow up the bubble and keep blowing with air until it finally exploded...in all of our faces...I was just pointing out the massive greed that was palpable. Don't deny. It made the hair on your neck stand up when someone pointed out that your home was worth 2 or 3 times what you paid for it! C'mon, admit the GREED...Now its worth a lot less (if you can sell it)...
gone fishing
Make the most of Las Vegas while you can. Lake Mead is running dry, very dry and very quick. They are saying that by 2017 there will be no water left for all those counties and states that rely on it, and by 2020 there will be no hydro electric power, as the water levels will be too low.
I hope I'm wrong but with a new world economy, all Americans, good and bad, are screwed..........
We should have left the Italian mafia in charge. Everyone was working, everybody was having kids, everyone was building homes, pro ball players were not a bunch of idiots, no cigarette cry babies, blacks had a right to protest, whites got along better with blacks, and you could go into business without feeling like someone was going to take it from you.
Let's face it America, the only ones who have anything left in them, are the ones fighting for our freedom.
Can anyone add to the list?
I've said as much about the job base here, companies in my blog to let people know about Las Vegas for real estate. If NV's leaders would lead it would help! We have a Gov. who seems to think slashing everything is the way to go. In addition to that we have the perfect set up for a green economy that while Reid and others yap my home town in KS has opened a manufacturing company to build wind turbines. Why aren't solar panels being made here! Then install them over 50 square miles (jobs) and produce enough energy to put NV Power out of business other than line maintenance. That large of a solar farm would supply the country with electricity and put all the coal power plants out of biz as well. This solar farm would be owned by the Government of NV Charging the Counrty for it's electric bill (dollars for the state; free electricity for NV).
This would insprire a huge amount of tech and green based companies to want to come to NV.
The Hotels would of course be required to build their own solar units to supply themselves or pay a bill @ current rates! This state and Vegas in partcular needs to bring in enough various types of companies to make the strip and tourism a side dish instead of the full unhappy meal. I see housing coming back to pre crash levels but not for 7-10 years as builders continue to resrict what they build for years to come, building only as they sell a home. No communities built without buyers. We are already seeing price spikes around the Valley especially in the south Anthem/ Green Valley/ Seven Hills areas where prices were 60-70 a sqft (Feb-April) for homes but are now pushing 100-115 per sqft for a home. It's not abnormal to go up for a home in any price range under 250 that has 10-50 bids on it. So the prices and the inventory are thankfully heading in oposite directions! Las Vegas has a chance to remake itself but it's going to take real leadership and work on a local, state, and national level to get it done. Put Oscar up for Gov, we need someone with some personality deeper than a penny.