Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Report: In 2010, 99.8 percent chance of lower home prices

Beyond the Sun

A new report shows the Las Vegas Valley has a 99.8 percent chance of seeing lower home prices through 2010.

PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., the second largest U.S. mortgage insurer, released its risk index for 381 metropolitan areas across the country. Las Vegas joined several cities in Florida and California in having greater than a 99 percent chance of seeing lower prices by the fourth quarter of 2010.

"Combined with upward movements in excess housing supply in many parts of the country, these deteriorating conditions are increasing the risk of house price declines in the next two years," the report said. "Florida, California, Arizona and Nevada continue to lead the nation in risk and significantly rising level of delinquency rates."

In its third quarter report, PMI reported that Las Vegas had a 99.4 percent chance of seeing lower home prices in two years, but the number was revised to 99.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The index factors in previous home price appreciation/depreciation, affordability and a city's unemployment rate.

"Even with the modest home sales gains that we project for the second half of 2009, we still expect that national home prices will fall further because of the large number of homes for sale," the PMI report said. "The worst national price drops are probably behind us, however, and by 2010 national prices begin to stabilize."

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors said the median price of a home in February was $155,603 -- off 37 percent from February 2008 and down more than 50 percent from the peak in 2006.

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