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StumbleEconomic slowdown predicted through end of year
10 indicators show the downturn could get worse before conditions improve
An index that tracks gaming revenue, tourism and conventions, retail sales and commercial and residential development shows there’s likely more pain ahead for the Las Vegas area.
Thursday, April 2, 2009 | 10:09 a.m.
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The slowdown in the Southern Nevada economy will continue through the end of 2009, marking the longest recession in the region since the 1930s, a UNLV economist said today.
All 10 of the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators declined in March, said Keith Schwer, director of UNLV's Center for Business and Economic Research.
The index tracks gaming revenue, tourism and conventions, retail sales and commercial and residential development.
“It’s not pretty,” Schwer said. “It’s going to take a while before things get better.”
Schwer said he expects some recovery in 2010 because of the federal stimulus that pumped money into the economy.
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And what about when this bs "stimulus" money dries up? What about when all the potholes are filled? What then? What about when the Chinese say no more to buying our junk bonds?
LV Valley will de-populate and dwindle in size.
I say 3rd quarter of 2011 will be the first signs of life. Anyone else wanna guess? The sports books should start taking economy bets. We could all pick a date and winner gets paid.
the 800 pound gorilla that nobody talks about is that vegas really isn't cool anymore.
all things have a "cool" cycle.
bette middler? cher? carlos santana?
huh?!?
i'm going to stand on the strip and sell tennis balls to put on the bottom of old people's strollers. i'll make a million dollars.
remember back when almost every movie had at least some tie-in to vegas in it?
showgirls? swingers? vegas vacation? oceans 11?
now...nothing.
vegas got A LOT of free marketing in that era. now we're doing p.r. stunts by bringing in a bunch of yokels from texas.
Vegas was only cool cuz of all the money the LVCVA was throwing around. They are way ahead of the curve. Everyone in a small town will want to visit Vegas with their neighbors in the future!
Vegas isn't cool anymore? You mean, getting drunk, gawking at half-naked women by the pool by day and even more drunk and laid by night isn't fun anymore?
Where is Neiman1 on this issue?
right, solar.
that's exactly what happens to everyone when they come to vegas.
do the math. visitor volume is down even with the hotel rates lower than they've been in years.
That's what a vast amount of middle America comes to Vegas for, Steve. It's time to accept it.
stevem is just a terrorist that wants NLV bombed! What a loser!
Hey Boomer111 is right. Where is Neiman1's post? I miss his enlightened view of the article.
LOL.. I am the one with no intellegence? This is just some beuracrats finally recognizing what people with common sense could see coming. You need to get out in the rest of America. It's broke. People cannot come here when they had no money.
I am sure this isn't anyone's fault. The loans forced on the banks were bad. It was the bankers that lost all our money that are bad. Huh! How did they lose all our money? Making loans REQUIRED by law. You know, the ones Congress didn't think were bad.
High energy costs that started all this weren't Congress's fault. They did all they could to expand energy development here at home. They didn't stop business from developing energy the just put regulations and environmental reviews on bad things. Like nuclear, coal, oil, gas, and DAMS.
No, this is a surprise to Las Vegas, they voted for HOPE and CHANGE and they didn't want any of this. Such a shock. This along with PMI's article in the paper saying a 98% chance home values will fall farther this year. All shock.
Legalize weed and watch the numbers come back up. Safer than alcohol and tobacco, pot has added billions to the coffers of places like Vancouver and Amsterdam. Not regulating it here when we need something to get the economy rolling seems a little short-sighted. Kinda like shooting one's self in the foot. Corrections would save $$. Policing would be cheaper and better. Schools would benefit from the taxation. All of Las Vegas would see an upturn in cash flow. What's the matter with it?
For those of you who cannot see through the cracks, things HAVE bottomed out. Month to month visitation, room rates, revenue are flat. Come July and beyond when the year over numbers are way lower due to the downturn late last year all you will read in the papers is how things have turned a corner.
If you haven't been on the stip lately, it's very busy, of course it's not 2004, 2005, 2006 or 2007 but it's not THAT bad. People are such bandwagon people. Occupancy rates at some places which have been getting hammered are actually up; it's almost directly related to the rate IMO. Imperial Palace is offering a $79 all inclusive room/food/booze per night package, MGM Grand is under $90 some nights with food and gaming coupons just to give a couple examples.
Sometimes I think some of the people on here just sit in front of their computers and never actually go out and see what is really happening.
On the flip side, the rumor on the street is Stations is doing nightly drops instead of weekly to keep their lights on and pay their employees. That's pretty scary news...
Whats the matter with weed? Well it is a gateway drug leading to harder drugs like Heroine, Cocaine and Meth. Dont we have enough problems from alcohol? Instead of Drunks all over the road we will have stoned people misjudging distance and driving too slow. Instead why dont all the pot heads quit smoking the stuff so we dont have illegal drug wars on the border? Someone enlighten me as to why humans need drugs in order to get through the day.
stevem hit it right on the head. Besides, much of what Vegas had working these last few years was fueled by that loose, loose, credit that was out there. That's all history. The reality NOW going forward is that nothing is going to be the same again.
solar, you're an idiot.
i never said i didn't "accept" that people come to vegas to do that stuff, but in reality that's not the experience that most people have.
and lasvegas2009, to say i'm a terrorist and that i want las vegas bombed is just moronic. i said nothing of the sort. you're a dimwit.
and gqbossing is on here saying everyone is on a bandwagon, but the fact is that visitor volume at the airport has been down month after month for the last 7 - 8 months.
when we have positive numbers in that area for 3 or 4 months in a row, we can say we've reached the bottom.
the hotels have been dropping rates month after month and guess what? it hasn't helped, has it?
vegas isn't a cool place to go anymore.
All completely reasonable points.
However, people are choosing to vacation in Vegas less because they have less cash to spend along with less job security. Simple as that. Your whole 'Vegas isn't a cool place to go anymore' argument is completely unfounded.
Also, I didn't say that that's what most Americans experience when they come to Vegas, but the idea of it certainly is a huge draw. It was also the basis for the whole 'What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas' campaign. Along with the clubs, the advertising, the topless pools, the drinking. To act like your average dude in Texas doesn't have that image of Vegas in their heads when they dine at Cathouse and spend all night partying at the Hard Rock is just silly. It sold, it still sells. Maybe not like it did last year, but I'm not sure that drinking a lot and looking at women all day has really ever gone out of style for Americans.
Airweare wrote:
"Legalize weed and watch the numbers come back up. Safer than alcohol and tobacco, pot has added billions to the coffers of places like Vancouver and Amsterdam. Not regulating it here when we need something to get the economy rolling seems a little short-sighted. Kinda like shooting one's self in the foot. Corrections would save $$. Policing would be cheaper and better. Schools would benefit from the taxation. All of Las Vegas would see an upturn in cash flow. What's the matter with it?"
You never stop your banter regarding legalizing and taxing marijuana do you?
Let's pretend for a moment that marijuana was legalized in Nevada, do employee drug tests vanish across the state and nation?
Do the nation's DUI laws change to prevent the Vegas tourist participates (you hope to tax) from being penalized upon their return home?
At what THC levels do all motorists become legally impaired and how would motorists be able to determine whether they were legally impaired or not before driving?
Will tourists and residents be expected to risk losing their diving privileges and/or employment because they were enticed into a dance with Mary Jane?
How do revenuers collect taxes from those participating privately?
How would Nevada's marijuana monopoly protect its revenues and product from competition without building more prisons?
How would minors be 'protected' from participation and what would be the enforcement methods and penalties applied to those caught participating?
You imply Vancouver and Amsterdam are solutions to be modeled?
Yet can't see "what's the matter"?