The price of success

By Jeff Haney (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 27, 2008 | 2 a.m.

Of the NFL teams that have played three games this season heading into Week 4, only two have a perfect record against the point spread.

The Philadelphia Eagles of the NFC East and the Tennessee Titans of the AFC South are each 3-0 against the number — a reliable indication of which teams are exceeding the expectations of oddsmakers and the betting marketplace.

Strong defense has played a role in both teams’ success against the spread.

Tennessee has allowed only 29 points, the lowest total in the league among teams with three games played.

Philadelphia has yielded 50 points, allowed 3 and 6 points in two victories and the other 41 in its instant-classic Monday Night Football loss to division rival Dallas. The Eagles covered a 6 1/2-point spread in losing by 4 to the Cowboys in Week 2.

Oddsmakers, as they will, have adjusted to the early-season success of the Titans and Eagles, forcing bettors to pay a higher premium to back them at the betting window.

In Sunday’s game at Chicago, for example, the Eagles opened as a 2-point underdog in early wagering on “games of the year” released in May at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

Today, the Eagles are favored by 3 points on the road against the Bears, and the line appears more likely to reach 3 1/2 than to drop to 2 1/2.

In their Oct. 5 game against the Washington Redskins, the Eagles opened as a 3 1/2-point favorite on the Hilton’s early line. Philly has been bet up to an 8-point favorite in the game, according to odds at the Hilton, which posts odds on the NFL card a little more than a week and a half out in wagering informally called the “12-day line” by Las Vegas gamblers.

Likewise, the Titans opened as a 1-point favorite in Sunday’s game against Minnesota on the early-preseason line at Lucky’s sports books. The Titans are now a 3-point favorite in Las Vegas against the Vikings — not an insignificant line move considering 3 is a “key number” in NFL betting and the game carries a low over/under of 35 1/2 points.

Similarly, in their Oct. 5 game, the Titans opened as a 1-point favorite against the Baltimore Ravens on the early-preseason line at Lucky’s and now stand as a 2 1/2-point favorite, according to the Hilton’s 12-day line.

Just as Philly and Tennessee are exceeding gamblers’ expectations, the Detroit Lions of the NFC North and the St. Louis Rams of the NFC West are the league’s biggest underachievers so far vis-a-vis oddsmakers and the betting marketplace.

The Lions and Rams are each 0-3 straight-up, which is incidental as far as gamblers are concerned.

But both are also 0-3 against the number, the only two teams with three games played that have failed to cover the point spread.

The Lions have a bye this week, but the line movement in their Oct. 5 game against Chicago is telling. Detroit opened a 1-point favorite on the early Lucky’s line but now is listed as a 3-point underdog at the Hilton.

The Rams have a bye next week, but the adjustment in the line in Sunday’s game against Buffalo reflects the Rams’ falling stock. After opening as a 2-point favorite on the early Lucky’s line, the Rams are 8-point underdogs against the Bills throughout Las Vegas.

It’s important to realize those early lines do not necessarily represent mistakes by the oddsmaker. At the time they were released, it’s likely the numbers were perfectly solid and they were adjusted to mirror the changing fortunes of the teams in question.

The dismal performances of the Lions and Rams are especially disconcerting considering they weren’t expected to do much this season in the first place. Both teams entered the regular season with over/under victory totals of just 6 1/2 in most Las Vegas sports books.

The Titans (over/under 8 victories) and the Eagles (over/under 8 1/2), meanwhile, appear well on their way to exceeding their projected regular-season victory totals.

Both overachieving teams are also making noise in Super Bowl future books in Las Vegas.

The Titans opened at odds as high as 45-1 to win the Super Bowl, according to the Venetian sports book. A typical current price in Las Vegas has Tennessee at 19-1 — which is probably worth a look considering the AFC is considered a wide-open conference.

The Eagles opened as high as 40-1 to win the Super Bowl, again on the early line at the Venetian, which was posted even before last season’s Super Bowl. Philly can be found at a consensus price in the range of 10-1 to 12-1 in Las Vegas today.

If both teams continue to cover the spread, however, gamblers will want to think about betting against them in the second half of the season.

Historically, the against-the-spread records of NFL teams tend to “revert to the mean,” or drift back toward the 8-8 level in the regular season, as oddsmakers and bettors make adjustments.

In one vivid example from last year, for instance, the New England Patriots covered the spread in their first eight games and went 2-6 against the number the rest of the way.