Sports books are smashing expected win rates on football

By Jeff Haney

Saturday, Sept. 6, 2008 | 2 a.m.

With the first weekend of regular-season NFL action comes a rekindling of the real national pastime, especially in these parts: betting on football.

Last year, gamblers in Nevada casinos risked a record $1.17 billion on football bets alone, 45 percent of the nearly $2.6 billion wagered in the state’s legal sports books.

Even at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, known for taking bets on a wide variety of events, the statistics roughly mirror the statewide numbers. Jay Kornegay, boss at the Hilton sports book, said 42 percent to 43 percent of his total handle comes from football bets.

The record-high amount bet on football in 2007 in Nevada was a slight increase from 2006, when gamblers risked about $1.13 billion on football, according to the Gaming Control Board.

The board does not officially differentiate between NFL and college football betting, but we do know that of the $1 billion-plus bet on football last year, casinos “held,” or won, more than $73 million — or 6.25 percent of the total wagered.

Sports books in Nevada fared even better in 2006, according to the Gaming Control Board, winning 8 percent of the $1.13 billion bet on football, or more than $91 million.

Far more telling than the raw figure won by the casinos are those “hold,” or win, rates.

Considering the house edge on a straight sports bet is approximately 4.5 percent, you would expect the hold rate on football wagering to come in right around there.

In fact, taking into account all of us big bad wise guys terrorizing local sports book managers with our big bad bankrolls, you would expect the hold rate to be even lower.

In fact, if you listened to the wisdom spouted on national sports-talk shows last fall about how “Vegas” was getting “killed” because the Patriots were covering the point spread each week, you would expect the hold rate to be significantly lower.

Yet these are the two most recent annual figures on the tote board on the eve of the first NFL Sunday of the new season: 6.25 percent and 8 percent.

Here are a few reasons, in no particular order, for the inflated hold rates:

• As if this racket weren’t tough enough to beat, many bettors insist on butchering themselves by playing four-team parlays that pay 10-1 and five-teamers that pay 20-1.

Betting four-teamers at those odds, as author Don Peszynski pointed out in his book “Win More, Lose Less,” is the equivalent of risking $1.75 to win $1 — rather than the standard $1.10 to win $1 — on the fourth game after the first three have come in.

The approximate house edge on such a bet exceeds 31 percent, which is 9-spot keno territory.

The house edge on five-teamers that pay 20-1 is also astronomical, exceeding 34 percent.

The casinos’ hold rate would drop if parlay bettors stuck to two-teamers at odds of 13-5 and three-teamers at 6-1. They won’t.

• In another form of ritual self-immolation, teaser players routinely add or subtract 6 points to random spreads, teasing a plus 13 up to a plus 19 and the like.

They often pay $1.20 or more to win $1 for the privilege.

Those bets, of course, hemorrhage money at a clip much greater than 4 1/2 percent.

• In a subtler example, bettors tend to wager into lines that have moved several points, effectively sucking out any value that might have existed.

The classic case would be laying something like 10 points with the favored team on Monday Night Football after the line opened at 7 and drifted up steadily leading to kickoff.

On this Sunday’s card, however, the most substantial betting line moves have been toward the “under” in the totals of several matchups.

The line moves are understandable considering how well “unders” have performed in the first week of NFL play in recent years.

Last season, unders went 11-5 in Week 1.

In 2006, unders went 12-4 in Week 1.

When Thursday’s Redskins-Giants game stayed under the total, the Week 1 trend extended its record to 24-9 in the past 33 games.

Whether they’re fading inexperienced quarterbacks, betting against new offensive schemes, or just relying on a general sense that defenses are ahead of offenses in the early going, NFL gamblers are again hammering the unders.

The total in Sunday’s Bengals-Ravens game, for instance, has dropped from 42 1/2 points to 38 in Las Vegas sports books.

The Lions-Falcons total stands as low as 40 1/2 after opening as high as 45.

The Chiefs-Patriots total has dropped from 49 to 44.

The total in the Jaguars-Titans game has fallen from 37 1/2 to 36 1/2, crossing the key number of 37.

It’s possible the trend favoring Week 1 “unders” will continue.

It’s also possible, at least in these particular games, the value has vanished.