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June 4, 2012

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How far will Rogers’ strategy take him

By (contact)

Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2008 | 2:01 a.m.

In case you haven’t followed it closely, Chancellor Jim Rogers’ crusade to save the higher education system from the Jim Gibbons bulldozer has taken many approaches.

At times, Rogers has lambasted the governor for his shortsighted, ignorant approach to cost-cutting — just take a calculator and divide the number of state agencies into the projected deficit and cut accordingly. Rogers, like most sentient human beings, knows this is infantile.

But lately Rogers has taken a more conciliatory approach, praising the governor for acknowledging the importance of system funding and Gibbons’ “promise” to restore it to current levels when the economy improves. Welcome to my parlor, said the spider to the fly.

Maybe Rogers will fall for the governor’s act (doubtful); maybe Gibbons thinks Rogers buys his sop (probable).

But Rogers probably knows that Gibbons, as a devastating Sun story this weekend pointed out, spends more time cavorting than governing (he is never in the office). So the chancellor realizes he must work around him. Rogers is holding the governor close while he tries to round up enough support among the Gang of 63 to save the system come Session ’09.

This is a strategy fraught with peril for a couple of reasons. One, the governor still has a veto pen. And, two, campaign-season promises from legislators requested by a powerful media mogul who moonlights as chancellor are not worth the paper they are written on.

It’s clear what Rogers is up to: He hopes two-thirds of the Legislature will agree to raise some tax, or amalgam of taxes, to avoid the Gibbons cuts, and he wants to be able to wave these commitments in front of lawmakers next year.

His strategy is clear in his latest memo:

“Of the 63 legislators, nine are not running for re-election (one Senate seat and eight Assembly seats). However, one Assembly member is running for an open Senate seat and we have a letter from him. That leaves 55 available to write letters of support before the general election. After the general election, the Chancellor’s Office will seek letters from the eight new legislators. To date, the Chancellor’s Office has received letters of support from 33 legislators (15 Senators and 18 Assemblymen and Assemblywomen), leaving 22 whom we hope will send letters of support over the next several weeks.”

So you see Rogers has been doing the math. But what do these letters actually say?

I won’t bother with the Democrats. They are like state Sen. Mike Schneider (“We will not cut our way into a better state.”) or Assemblyman William Horne (“I have read your memos. They scare me to death.”).

Rogers had them at hello. The question is what kind of commitments is he getting from Republicans.

The math is simple: Rogers assumes he will be able to count to 28 in the Assembly — Speaker Barbara Buckley has a 50-50 chance to get there this cycle, but even if she doesn’t, the chancellor may be able to importune a GOP vote or two.

In the Senate, though, there will be anywhere from 10 to 12 Democrats — depending on whether Republicans Bob Beers and Joe Heck survive — and Rogers will need a handful of GOP members to be able to count to 14.

So what are GOP state senators saying to Rogers in their letters? Here’s what a couple of rural stalwarts wrote:

Dean Rhoads: “I share your desire to avoid additional cuts and will do my best to protect education.”

Rhoads might be part of a two-thirds vote. But all Rogers has there is a noncommitment commitment.

Mike McGinness: “An examination of the consequences of major cuts will reveal that major cuts are no answer at all. I pledge to work with you and (the system) to find solutions to all of our challenges.”

McGinness is a reasonable guy, too. But find solutions? Another noncommitment commitment.

Beers doesn’t seem likely to be supportive of Rogers, whom he has assaulted on his blog. And Heck gave this tepid closing after extolling the value of the Health Sciences System: “You and (the system) will continue to have my support. We need to do better and if we work together, we can do it.”

Another noncommitment commitment.

Rogers may think he is accomplishing his twofold purpose of circumventing the governor, whom he is busy placating for now, and locking in legislators to support higher education next session. But as persuasive as the mercurial chancellor can be, carrying those paper bludgeons up to Carson City next session may not put much of a hurt on lawmakers whose fear of Rogers may dissipate come Nov. 4.

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