Checking Back:

Gaming prognosticators

They looked ahead. Did they hit the jackpot?

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008 | 2 a.m.

At the end of last year, Las Vegans wanted to know the same thing they want to know every year. How is the state’s biggest industry going to do? Almost to a man, the sages of gaming said “slower, maybe, but steady.” Whoops.

American consumers could spend as much as $750 million of the tax stimulus package on gambling, which would add 1.3 percent to the gaming industry’s expected revenue growth.

— Bill Lerner, Deutsche Bank analyst. Feb. 3, 2008 (Review-Journal)

Analysis: Let’s look at the year-to-date figures from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, all of which are down: gaming revenue (7 percent), the economic impact of conventions (7.3 percent), the number of visitors (1.5 percent) and the average daily room rate (7.7 percent).

We feel very good about 2008.

— Jonathan Halkyard, Harrah’s Entertainment chief financial officer. Dec. 14, 2007 (Sun).

Analysis: Harrah’s reported losses of $285.4 million for the first half of 2008

It’s not going to be a record year, but it will be a solid year.

— Jefferies & Co. analyst Lawrence Klatzkin, Ibid.

Analysis: Nope.

If employment stays steady and consumer spending holds, conventions and tourism should see moderate growth in 2008. It may be smaller growth than in 2007 but still positive.

— Michael Hughes, associate publisher of Tradeshow Week magazine, Ibid.

Analysis: Unemployment is up and consumer spending is down. Still, he did have an “if.”

I think we’re going to have a very difficult ’08 in our business.

— Terry Lanni, MGM Mirage chief executive officer. Ibid.

Analysis: At the time, Lanni was suspected of saying this to evoke sympathy while he campaigned against a proposal by the teachers union to raise the gaming tax. Now? MGM Mirage’s third quarter profits are off by 67 percent. Give the man a cigar.

Discussion: 6 comments so far…

By Stevie

11/4/08 at 10:31 a.m.

Suggest removal

No need to figuratively give Terry Lanni a cigar.
There's literally more than enough smoke to breathe in the casinos already.
By Lenny_V

11/4/08 at 2:38 p.m.

Suggest removal

You mean literally not figuratively.
By Tourism_Expert

11/5/08 at 1:24 a.m.

Suggest removal

Now that the democrats have taken control, you will see Nevada's tourism experience growth beyond all expectations.
By Residual_benefit

11/5/08 at 1:33 a.m.

Suggest removal

I can't believe I almost filled up a half a tank on $20. With gas prices so low, it's time to gas up the vehicle and head to Vegas. Just have some fun"
By johnevegas

11/5/08 at 4:47 a.m.

Suggest removal

Tourism_Expert "Now that the democrats have taken control, you will see Nevada's tourism experience growth beyond all expectations."

It's a nice sentiment. I would like to see more of why you feel that way.
By dave202

11/5/08 at 2:40 p.m.

Suggest removal

Now that the Democrats have taken control, Vegas will spiral downward even faster. Increased corporate taxes will cause more layoffs. Higher fuel prices (because Democrats want to spur the growth of alternative energy sources and that can't happen with low fuel prices) will cause even more cuts in airline flights to Vegas and less visitation from SoCal. More federal intervention in the gaming industry will cause more expenditures for lobbyists (because Dina Titus doesn't know her way around Cap Hill). The "rich tax" will cause the wealthy in the Las Vegas Valley to hide their money offshore, therefore decrease spending in and around the valley on real estate, autos, and luxury items, causing more businesses to fail and more people to be unemployed. And when the Dems overthrow Gov. Gibbons in 2 years and raise taxes on everyone, the entire economy will implose.

Sure, the Dems are going to be GREAT for Vegas!