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Sunday, July 13, 2008 | 2:02 a.m.
As Democrats here gush about their ever-widening registration advantage, the chances for Barack Obama to win the state and Dina Titus’ opportunity to erase Jon Porter from Congress, the conventional wisdom on the party’s ability to take control of the state Senate has been less sanguine and very simple: It is virtually nil.
The only two races that really matter in the Democrats’ quest to overturn a one-vote deficit in the state Senate and control the Legislature are challenges to Bob Beers and Joe Heck. Both Republicans are eager and intense campaigners who enjoy the hurly-burly of a good policy debate as well as a feisty meet-and-greet. They also are half-million-dollar men running against a couple of women, Allison Copening and Shirley Breeden, who have been portrayed so far as dilettantes with little knowledge of issues.
This has to have been distressing for Democrats who are far from blue about Nevada’s going blue and who have high hopes up and down the ticket. Their short-term consternation is mild compared with that of the forward-thinking strategists in the party who understand that Beers and Heck are potentially strong statewide candidates in 2010 for governor or U.S. Senate. Beers and Heck, the feeling is, must be stopped now.
And, it turns out, perhaps they can be. Perhaps — and you know how pundits hate this — the conventional wisdom could be wrong.
In a poll taken late last month by a company specializing in delivering legislative majorities for Democrats and paid for by a partisan group, both Heck and Beers appeared vulnerable. Before any of my Republican friends start bleating about the polls’ provenance indicating the numbers are skewed, stop before you e-mail or call.
I have seen the surveys conducted by Myers Research of 400 voters in each district (margin of error is 4.4 percent) and the surveys are legitimate. That doesn’t mean they are predictors of November outcomes — cue the cliches about polls’ being only snapshots — but they should cause folks to rethink the conventional wisdom.
In Heck’s district the poll found the incumbent leads Breeden by only 5 percentage points, 35-30; Beers fared slightly better in his district, leading Copening by 8 percentage points, 46-38.
So, according to the surveys, both races are competitive.
There are other data to consider, too.
The surveys bear out conventional wisdom that says the GOP brand is toxic this year. In generic partisan ballot tests in both districts, a hypothetical Democratic state Senate candidate has an edge just outside the margin of error. Both districts, once solidly Republican, are now very close in registration — Beers has a 600-voter deficit and Heck has 2,000 more Democrats than Republicans.
I am not sure that generic ballot tests ever reveal much. But what often is instructive are past results in the district, especially recent ones. So when I see that gubernatorial contender Dina Titus defeated the eventual winner, Jim Gibbons, by two percentage points in both of those districts — at a time when both were solidly GOP in registration — that has to be reason for concern by the incumbents. Or at least it should be, especially for Heck, considering that Titus has the potential to increase Democratic turnout in that state Senate district as she tries to unseat Porter.
What this poll really reinforces, too, is how little legislators are known by those they represent. I’d venture to guess most people reading these words could not identify their state senator and assemblyman. And the poll showed that even the ever-quoted Beers is not recognized by about a fourth of voters in his district while Heck is known by just more than half.
That presents an opportunity for Copening and Breeden. If, that is.
If they can get the money to compete. If they can prove to be credible candidates. If they can run effective campaigns. And, of course, the determining factor: if they can fare well in debates on “Face to Face.”
Both Democrats surely will be aided by third-party groups pouring money into these districts because of fears about the future. Sen. Harry Reid doesn’t want to face either of these guys in 2010, and neither does anyone running for governor.
Being a stubborn, arrogant pundit who likes to think he helps set the conventional wisdom, I have to think Beers and Heck remain the favorites. But if this year turns out to be an unconventional one, with a Democratic presidential nominee taking this traditionally red state and a GOP congressman with a knack for winning losing his mojo, Heck and Beers may find themselves drowned by the partisan tide.
Hopefully, Beers will disappear from the State and be forced to actually work his way back like Knecht and Angle. The idea of no new taxes, with no alternative is killing the GOP. Where would we be if Guinn had not pushed for taxes in 2003 and attempted to diversify the tax structure? Some reporter needs to look at the Gibbons budgets and see the cuts that have been made? I can only hope this administration has a happy ending with Gibbons being led from the Capitol in handcuffs.
"The idea of no new taxes, with no alternative is killing the GOP"
Yes, you heard it right from a Democrat mouth....they want to RAISE YOUR TAXES.
So if you want do not want higher taxes then vote for Beers and Heck.
If you want higher taxes then vote for the Democrats.
Mr. Nance,
That is not what he said. He said, "WITH NO ALTERNATIVE..."
An alternative that would not require higher taxes would be, for instance, a reorganization and broadening of, the tax base to provide the state with a more consistent stream of revenue. Broadening the tax base (as Mr. Ralston has advocated) does not necessarily mean increasing or decreasing taxes or spending.
Of course, I believe you are correct to the extent that most Democrats would prefer more revenue (read: higher taxes), but I also believe the fact that we've been offered no alternative is the reason the Governor is not popular even with members of his own party. It's also why members of his party are suffering in the polls. The current situation is a very haphazard, slapdash approach to government. We can do better than this and the overwhelming majority of voters, Republican and Democrat alike, know it.
Your or his alternative is......"a reorganization and broadening of, the tax base to " which is just a smoke screen for higher taxes.
When you "broadening" your tax base will it then "narrow" it on other sources....Of course not. It will be a huge net increase in net taxes for state.
The Governor was interested in delaying the COLA for one year but unions, Buckley and the Democrats would not allow that over their dead bodies. That would given $130 million to play with in this budget. Win one for the unions and zero for the taxpayers.
Govenor's base is not unhappy with his stand on "no taxes". His base loves him for his no taxes stand.
I think most Nevadans are not that overly concern with the government budget problem. I am not nor do I hear anybody on the street talking about it. I do hear people talk all the time about the economy, high gas prices and housing market. I do not hear anybody say, "Boy we just need higher taxes to fund the state budget."
Go ahead and make sure that everybody knows that Democrats solution to all problems is to raise taxes.
"What this poll really reinforces, too, is how little legislators are known by those they represent."
This quote is the key statement of the whole column. Las Vegas is a transient town and many people, especially is Senate District 6, weren't living there the last time these seats were on the ballot. The lack of knowledge of local politicians is amplified by the general apathy and lack of understanding of state government. I can't tell you how many of my friends do not know who is representing them, or even what the difference is between a City Councilperson, County Commissioner, State Assemblymember or State Senator. It will come down to who has the money to get their names and faces plastered across town and who has enough shoe leather to canvass the district.
While I personally believe it is a good thing that Nevada has a part-time legislature, it also keeps name recognition to a minimum as you usually see the names on the news during Regular and Special Sessions.
What people do see of state government is the Hepatitis Scare, insufficient infrastructure that is not keeping up with growth and schools that are sub-par. I am not laying blame or saying who has the best solution. I am just stating that this is what your average Nevadan has seen of state government.
These features together could spell trouble for any incumbent, but especially Republicans this year.
How about at the very least looking at the tax structures of other States with no State income tax? Why do you think we have to rely on gaming and mining so heavily? God forbid, we value education and create a system of accountability. Gibbons stand on taxes is simply do nothing and collect a paycheck. Why are Gibbons and Beers not showing all the waste of Government instead of simply arbitrarily making cuts?
"Why do you think we have to rely on gaming and mining so heavily? "
Here are some facts:
1/3 of the state revenue does not come from sales or gaming tax.
Only 1.3% comes from mining (If one compares business revenue of mining to gaming then it is laughable to move that percentage above 2%).
1/3 of it comes from sales tax.
Around 28% of it comes from gaming taxes.
All this talk of tax restructing is just a smoke screen to raise taxes.
Will we lower taxes on gaming if we tax other businesses? Yeah....right.....
If gaming revenue is down then will this new magically business tax keep the revenue coming in enough to make up for the gaming tax revenue? Yeah....right.....
Just say....we need to raise taxes so that we can give it to the unions.
Mr. Nance,
You're correct that about 28% of state revenue comes from gaming taxes, but that statistic alone understates the portion of state revenue provided by the gaming industry as tourists pay sales tax, liquor tax, cigarette tax, etc.
The Nevada Resort Association estimates that the gaming industry provides about 44% of the general fund revenue, or an extra 16% of the state's total revenue above and beyond the gaming tax.
http://www.nevadaresorts.org/docs/benefi...
There is no mistaking the conclusion. We are overly reliant on gaming to provide for tax revenue. You are correct that most people calling for diversification of the tax base are doing so because they want to generate more tax revenue, but it doesn't have to be that way.
Continuing to rely on gaming for nearly half our tax revenue means we will never break out of this boom/bust cycle that our state is in.
I think you argument counters itself.
If gaming is providing beyond it direct taxes of 28% to 44% then that shows how much gaming dominates the Nevada economy.
There is no other industry in the state that generates the revenues that gaming does.
So how much can you rely on these other business? Probably not that much.
Also, if you raise taxes on those business then it has the opposite effect of seeking to diversify the state's economy.
The business modified tax is already an attempt to diverisfy the state revenues.
It is a back door income tax. Businesses have to pay a tax on their payrolls. It makes employing someone more expensive and therefore is an anti-job tax.
Joe Heck is a shill anyway. His race against Ann O'Connell was disgusting and a testament to his complete lack of any character whatsoever. Who cares what happens to him?
God help the state if Bob Beers is voted out and the morons are given complete free reign to tax and spend with no voice of reason whatsoever.
Actually I think it's your argument that counters itself. If the gaming industry thrives in spite of a 6% tax rate, why can't other businesses? Mining, for instance.
But you raise an interesting point. In effect, all taxes are income taxes. Businesses do one of two things with their profits; they either pay them out in the form of salaries and dividends or they reinvest them. If those profits aren't there because they've been taxed they won't be there to be paid out as salaries or dividends. That's why I'd like to see a flat tax on income replace all other taxes; a flat tax that would treat all forms of income equally. With such a tax it may seem that we end up paying a higher percentage of our incomes in taxes, but the cost of just about every good or service we purchase would go down as the businesses providing them would no longer have to account for the cost of taxation.
I wonder how many Nevada residents remember what they bought with their big DMV rebate in September of '05? Governor Guinn's last hurrah! Well give this some thought. The rebate totaled about $298 million including expenses of about 6 million. That money, if left invested with the State Treasurer earning interest at the general portfolio rate would be worth about $360 million today.
I see textbooks for schools, health care for seniors and children, badly needed road repairs and a host of other statewide needs but for the life of me I can't remember what I purchased with that $150 rebate check!
I would recommend that the executive and legislative branches convert the "rainy day fund" to a "biennial stabilization fund" and work in earnest to build a budget that ensures adequate reserves to augment future revenue shorfalls. I'm fearful that failure to do so will lead to a continued decline in the quality of life for all Nevada residents.
glug...glug...glug....
What everybody up and down the comment line is missing is that it's no longer Nevada 1965. Gone are those days when tourists came, lost their money, and then went home to put their public service burdens on THEIR OWN local governments. Today, Nevada has too big of a permanent population (much of it low waged) that requires higher service levels of medical, education, streets/freeways and all the rest. IT SIMPLY COSTS WHAT IT COSTS. Short of sealing the borders, we're stuck. Big Gaming and Mining pay a teensy-tiny fraction of what they pay in other states. And yes the Modified Business Tax must be raised. THINGS COST WHAT THEY COST. Railing against "guvment" and "illegals" is not a credible argument. We must grow up and find the bucks, and spread the load around that affects the middle class the least.
Indigopop, you got $150? I got about forty. Because I'm a teacher, and that's the type of vehicle I can afford.
(Of course, the most money back went to the people least needing it, at the expense of the general population in the lack of state funds. But even for those who received the largest refunds, it was a relatively piddly amount that didn't change anyone's life, but could have really made a difference this year in the state.)
jfnnce32,A Democrat you say? It makes no difference you are a person who wants someone else to pay your share of their obligation of taxes. You could care less that Nevada's education system rank's at the bottom with Mississippi and Alabama ( more free loading,ignorant Republican's).You have yet to figure out this drives away business and potential employers. Because of nit wits like you Nevada will never be a state with class and culture. As long as you can free load and play bingo you could care less who pay's your way, just as long as it is not you. You are a person with true character flaws.
jfnance32, A lesson for you. Democrats tax and spend, Republicans borrow and spend.
And who do we thank for the liquidation of the state's rainy day fund? Bob Beers, CPA.
An accountant who doesn't believe in a savings account? It's no wonder his ship is sinking.
"You could care less that Nevada's education system rank's at the bottom with Mississippi and Alabama ( more free loading,ignorant Republican's)."
Nevada's teachers pay is ranked 25th in the nation.
The state's tax collections for k-12 education is 21st in the nation.
The Unions for sure got their COLA raise this year despite budget cuts across the board.
Win one for the Unions (Buckley's best friend) and lose one for the taxpayers.
Where were you, Nance, when teachers got nothing for years while the city was booming? I work way more than 40 hours per week.
p.s. Be sure to see July 15 story in the R-J about the "union" you keep referring to. It looks like the "union" traded keeping secrets about bad administrators from teachers for jobs out of the classroom. There is no real union for teachers in So NV, Nance, so when you say those things, every teacher who reads this knows you don't know what you're talking about.
You must be slipping on a whole of kool-aid if you believe that the Unions had nothing to do with the COLA not being delayed.
I think Buckley has to get approval from the unions just to go to the bathroom.
This guy Beers is listed in the franchise offering for Beverage Plus as an advisor when in fact they are not even registered to sell franchises in several states they are doing business. Beers is violating Federal Franchise laws and should start advising this company he's involved with to obey the law. Goggle Senator Bob Beers Soulcast to get the truth. Oh and by the way his partner in this company is an ex felon who owes the IRS over $250,000.00 in back taxes according to Clark County public records. I guess Beers is so desperate for money he now has to violate Federal Franchise laws or partner up with tax evaders. He surely will not get my vote.