Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

U.S. voters fired up — like Nevadans

It’s one thing to start a fire in the woods of New Hampshire or the cornfields of Iowa. It’s another to set the Mojave Desert ablaze, as Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards did in Nevada last week.

With the presidential primary season moving toward the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday voting in 24 states, the state whose voters have provided the best look at the national mood this election year is, surprisingly, Nevada. The state Democratic Party announced this week that an astonishing 117,599 Democrats turned out to caucus last Saturday — 12 times the number who caucused four years ago.

To be sure, across the country, “everybody’s expectations are out the window right now,” said Michael McDonald, an expert on voter turnout at George Mason University. “Nobody has ever seen this much interest in a campaign at this point in the election cycle.”

That national interest propelled the presidential contests this month in Iowa and New Hampshire, with both states also drawing record participation. (Breakdowns of the results of South Carolina’s Democratic primary Saturday were not available at press time.)

But the experience in those states pales compared with Nevada. History shows why.

Iowa and New Hampshire have long traditions of political involvement. The political parties are strong and active. The electorate, largely white and stable, is familiar with the rhythms of campaigns and the occasionally complex procedures involved in presidential nominating contests.

Nevada, to be blunt, has none of the above.

The state’s population is transient, with large slices of Hispanic and black residents. It has a history of low turnout and voter apathy. Political parties here are comparatively weak and the electorate was confused by the complexities of this caucus.

The three front-runners recognized the differences among the states and campaigned accordingly. They spent far more time in Iowa and New Hampshire, personally meeting many voters in the months leading up to the contests.

The candidates treated Nevada as something of an afterthought.

Yet on Jan. 19, Nevada Democrats turned out in those record numbers. The lesson for the nation is this: If the Democrats broke through here, they can break through anywhere.

“For Democrats, you just see their level of enthusiasm for this race,” said Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington, D.C. “They are energized and willing to go out and vote.”

In the 2004 general election, Nevada ranked among the bottom five states in turnout of eligible voters. After Democrats moved Nevada to No. 3 on the election season calendar, state party officials predicted that 30,000 to 70,000 would show up Saturday. Nevada Sen. Harry Reid predicted 100,000 would show up and was roundly criticized for setting the bar ridiculously high. Voters proved them all wrong, and not only in terms of turnout. Hundreds of Nevadans who have kept an arms-length distance from politics in the past stepped up as precinct captains and campaign foot soldiers. Additionally, state Democratic Party members say they picked up an estimated 30,000 new registrants the day of the caucus. That suggests a groundswell of interest from traditionally indifferent voters.

Of course, part of reason for all this was the influx paid campaign staff and the sporadic candidate visits to Nevada.

But those things go only so far without an underlying appetite among voters. Experts say much of the reason for Nevada’s big turnout is the national temperature.

“Few elections in the past half century have been waged in the context of a level of public anxiety as high as exists at this time,” said Thomas Patterson, a political scientist at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.

Polls show that many people feel the country is on the wrong track. The war in Iraq and a slowdown in the economy are part of the reason.

“There are large amounts of dissatisfaction,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

That discontent is a powerful motivator.

So, too, is the unusual nature of the candidates.

“With a woman, an African American, and for a time a Hispanic presidential candidate, there was interest generated from generally underrepresented segments of American society,” said Michael Genovese, a political scientist at Loyola Marymount University.

Nevada was, in many ways, the first test for those underrepresented segments — and they showed surprising strength.

Entrance polls suggested that Hispanics made up 15 percent of last week’s participants, an unprecedented number in Nevada, which indicates the Democrats are likely to energize Hispanics nationwide.

Assemblyman Ruben Kihuen, who worked on Clinton’s campaign, said the campaigns here essentially woke up the “Latino giant.”

Blacks made up about 15 percent of the Democrats’ caucus turnout as well, according to entrance polls.

For their part, Nevada Republicans are downplaying the big Democratic turnout. Republicans point out that nearly 45,000 caucused here for their party, even though the results were nonbinding and their caucus was overshadowed by South Carolina’s Republican primary on the same day.

What is disconcerting for Republicans is the huge number of Democrats who newly registered on caucus day. Those voters significantly expand the slight registration advantage Democrats built during the past 18 months.

Nationally, Iowa and New Hampshire showed a similar trend. In Iowa, Democrats’ participation jumped by about 115,000 from the 2004 level, to 239,000. On the Republican side, 118,7000 voters turned out, only 30,000 more than in 2000.

Of course, the trend could change once the nominee of each party is chosen. Nevada Republican Party’s executive director, Zach Moyle, is sure Republicans will even the playing field.

“We’ve been the better grass-roots organization for 20 years,” he said. “Come November, this will be a red state.”

Time — and Nevada’s newly engaged voters — will tell.

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