Obama’s momentum tough new test for Clinton

By J. Patrick Coolican (contact)

Sunday, Jan. 6, 2008 | midnight

CONCORD, N.H. -- Hillary Clinton's Nevada campaign is trying to put the best face on her loss in last week's Iowa caucuses.

Her state chairman, Rory Reid, who also heads the Clark County Commission, went so far as to suggest Clinton's third-place finish in Iowa would have no effect on Nevada's Jan. 19 presidential caucuses.

Even Reid probably didn't believe that -- for it's now plain to see the Nevada race has been thrown into turmoil. Clinton's year-long advantage and status as front-runner have evaporated.

The Nevada campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, who won the Iowa caucuses by attracting tens of thousands of new voters, is modeled on its Iowa operation, which proved the Obama staff knows how to win. The process puts a premium on precinct-by-precinct organization because voters are required to show up at a particular time and place and because most Nevadans will be new to it.

The Obama team's advantage is now compounded by Obama's momentum, which polls indicate could continue through New Hampshire's presidential primary Tuesday. As of Saturday, he drew even in two polls and ahead in two others.

The momentum is as recognizable as the chill in the New Hampshire air.

Outside Concord High School, the line to get inside an Obama event stretched all the way to the street. Jack Weeks, a retired small-businessman and state legislator who left the Republican Party to become an independent, said Obama gave him hope that change is on the way. He was carrying Obama's book “The Audacity of Hope,” planning on using his old football skills to get near the candidate for an autograph.

All across New Hampshire, Obama is packing gymnasiums and wowing crowds, hitting on the themes he nailed home on the night of his Iowa victory: fresh thinking and a new and broad coalition of Democrats, independents and Republicans that will transform American governance in the same way Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt did in the past century.

For Clinton's Nevada operation, a tough scenario is developing: Obama surges to victory in New Hampshire. The following day, the Culinary Union Local 226 and its 60,000 members endorse Obama. With Obama's operation wedded to the Culinary union's famed field organization, they overwhelm the Clinton campaign on caucus day, dealing her another defeat.

A New Hampshire victory is the best thing that could happen to Clinton's Nevada fortunes, even though the Culinary might still back Obama in that case. A Clinton win would blunt the perceptions following her from Iowa and give her momentum going into Nevada.

But no matter what happens in New Hampshire, several factors make Nevada different from Iowa.

The media coverage, paid advertising and expensive organizing efforts in Iowa were unprecedented -- more than $50 million on TV ads alone. The Iowa caucuses were on everyone's lips in that state. That in turn helped drive up turnout 80 percent, which helped carry Obama to victory because he won those new voters overwhelmingly.

The Nevada caucuses haven't seen the same level of energy, money, political talent or candidate visits. And this is the first time it's held early presidential caucuses. As a result, many voters simply aren't engaged. The people who are engaged would seem to be party regulars, and, thus, safer ground for Clinton, though she didn't win them in Iowa. (The Obama Nevada campaign is competing for these regulars but also created a whole new class of activists, much as it did in Iowa.)

Obama also carried young voters by big margins. Unlike Nevada, Iowa is dotted with colleges and universities, including Iowa State and the University of Iowa, large institutions with politically active student bodies even more energized than usual due to the caucuses.

Will Nevada voters be as focused on change as their counterparts in Iowa? An overwhelming number of Iowans said they want change, and of those, a majority went for Obama.

Nevada voters in 2006 largely supported the status quo, though to be fair, more than half were Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. And the Nevada economy has stalled significantly, which could translate into a desire for change.

Nevada voters will likely be less educated than voters in either Iowa or New Hampshire, which, at least until now, have been areas of strength for Clinton.

After the Iowa loss, Robby Mook, the campaign's Nevada director, went so far as to second-guess Clinton's strategy in Iowa, saying the campaign was focused on a too-small “universe” of voters, which refers to the set of voters a campaign is trying to capture.

“In Iowa, it's easy to get trapped contacting just people who have caucused before,” Mook said. “Because of the history, you can be more inclined to run a textbook campaign.”

Anticipating Obama's broader appeal and plan to tap into it, the Clinton operation in Nevada expanded its pool of voters some time ago and is competing for them, he said.

Mook also claimed the Clinton defeat in Iowa has galvanized Clinton supporters, bringing in many off the street to volunteer.

One wildcard in all this is former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who invested lots of time and resources in an Iowa victory only to come in second. Still, he finished ahead of Clinton. He has sent 75 of his Iowa organizers to Nevada, giving his organization a needed injection of seasoned talent.

At a Saturday event in Lebanon, N.H., Edwards showed no signs of letting up. He spoke to several hundred supporters and undecided voters, the overflow crowd forced to sit in a nearby gymnasium: “You better send somebody into that arena who's ready to fight,” he said. He invoked the 47 million Americans without health insurance, his voice becoming emotional as he asked, “Where are they supposed to go? What are they supposed to do?”

Joe Trippi, a senior adviser, said Edwards is in it for the long haul and said the pressure is on Clinton.

The Edwards campaign thinks the turnout in Nevada will be relatively small. As a result, the Edwards team has focused on party regulars and union members. That cuts into Clinton's territory more than Obama's.

The campaign hopes another third-place showing by Clinton in Nevada would finish her, creating a two-person race between Obama and Edwards, though it seems like an unlikely scenario at this point. Many analysts have written him off.

The Obama team is quietly confident that the seeds it planted months ago are now bearing fruit. The campaign says that its organization has reached Nevadans other candidates have written off.

“We have a parallel organization to the one we have in Iowa,” said David Cohen, the state director of Obama's campaign. “We've built a larger universe of voters because Barack Obama, as a candidate, has the ability to reach beyond many of the lines where other candidates have to stop.”

One thing that's clear: The Iowa results are good for Nevada. If Clinton loses in New Hampshire, she will have to throw up a firewall to prevent another defeat. If she wins in New Hampshire, Nevada will be a rubber match.

J. Patrick Coolican can be reached at 259-8814 or at patrick.coolican@lasvegassun.com.