Jon Ralston peers into his crystal ball and makes political predictions for Las Vegas, Nevada and the country in 2008

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Sunday, Jan. 6, 2008 | midnight

With 2008 off to an unpredictable start with the Obamarama and Huckaboom results in Iowa, the oracle business might be rough this year.

I could take the easy way out by waiting until after New Hampshire for the presidential predictions (as if that makes it easier) or I could go with the cinches, such as Gov. Jim Gibbons committing a major gaffe before the month is out (but he's already done that by castrating his chief of staff with the creation of a chief operating officer job for no apparent reason).

But it's time to be brave, so soldier on I must, lest I lose by membership in the Pundits Club of America.

So why should you listen to my Delphic musings?

A year ago I foretold Lois Tarkanian's Las Vegas City Council victory, Gibbons' rocky legislative session, state Sen. Bob Beers' emergence as an ally of his former opponent, and first lady Dawn Gibbons getting national attention before her husband (remember that inaugural dress!).

But if you are looking for a reason to ignore my soothsaying (as if you need one), consider I also suggested that Gibbons would veto some fee increases (he finessed that one), mused that Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid would be mulling a run against Rep. Jon Porter (that didn't last long) and claimed Mayor Oscar Goodman would not get 80 percent of the vote ( I meant 90, really).

If insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, here I go again:

The Locks

Las Vegas City Councilman Larry Brown, buoyed by a 5-to-1 edge in fundraising, will fend off a determined challenge from Assemblywoman Valerie Weber to win a seat on the Clark County Commission.

The state Supreme Court will toss out gaming tax initiatives proposed by the teachers and attorney Kermitt Waters. But it won't matter. At least one gaming tax eventually will qualify for the ballot -- and pass with at least two-thirds of the vote.

State Sen. Joe Heck, bolstered by his Iraq tour of duty, will easily win reelection without doing much campaigning. Beers, despite a brief scare, will also be reelected and talk will immediately surface of a primary challenge to Gibbons in 2010. (No permanent friends, no permanent enemies.)

The Democrats will obtain a veto-proof Assembly majority, despite a record fundraising effort by the GOP caucus led by Heidi Gansert.

Rep. Shelley Berkley will be reelected (this is a tough year, so I need to pad my percentage).

The Probables

Porter will buck the national tide and win a fourth term in Congress -- talk of a challenge to Sen. Harry Reid will begin. Rep. Dean Heller will easily win a second term -- talk of a challenge to Sen. Harry Reid will begin.

Gibbons will be cleared of any wrongdoing in that ongoing federal probe of alleged payoffs. At least two of the governor's high-level aides will leave by midyear.

Barack Obama will parlay momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire, and the Culinary Union endorsement, into a victory in the Nevada caucus. Hillary Clinton will be second and a fading John Edwards third.

Mitt Romney will win Nevada but his wounded campaign won't convince anyone it matters after his string of defeats. Ron Paul will shock Rudy Giuliani and John McCain and take second.

The budget cuts will be worse than anticipated. Someone will sue over them. Someone will start a recall of Gibbons. Neither the lawsuit nor the recall will be successful.

The federal government will approve the United-Sierra merger with conditions. The state will sue. The state will lose.

After the election, there will be talk that state Sen. Steven Horsford plans to challenge Dina Titus for minority leader in 2009.

At least one District Court judge will lose. At least two legislative incumbents will lose or not run again.

The Fantasies

Gibbons will call a special legislative session to fix the budget, and a bipartisan solution will be found.

While Gibbons is out of the state, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki will attempt to make some appointments. But Dawn Gibbons, quoting Alexander Haig, will declare, “I am in charge.”

Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley will form an exploratory committee for a run for governor. So will Mayor Goodman. So will Secretary of State Ross Miller. So will Titus. So will Rory Reid. So will empowerment-schools-pusher Maureen Peckman. So will I.

Gondolier Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson will purchase the Review-Journal -- no one will notice any changes.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.