First test for candidates

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Friday, Jan. 4, 2008 | midnight

So what should we make of Thursday's Iowa caucuses?

The first thing that struck us was that a black man, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama, won a presidential nominating contest in a Midwestern rural state that is overwhelmingly white.

It also should be mentioned that turnout was extraordinarily high on the Democratic side, with the top three candidates bunched together, as Obama defeated John Edwards and Sen. Hillary Clinton. The showings by Obama and Edwards shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, however -- Obama had a strong organization and is from the neighboring state of Illinois and Edwards has practically lived in Iowa for the past couple of years.

Clinton actually did well, and let's not forget she has had a significant lead in the national polls and will be a formidable opponent in the next contests -- New Hampshire and Nevada.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee defeated Mitt Romney. Just a few months ago most Americans hadn't even heard of the former Arkansas governor, whose meteoric rise in Iowa can be attributed largely to the support of evangelical Christians.

Still, Huckabee has a tough road ahead because he lacks the money and the organizational muscle of Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and Rudy Giuliani. By the way, what happened to Giuliani? Essentially forgoing the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, the former New York mayor has lost momentum and put his candidacy in jeopardy. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain has been focusing on New Hampshire and hopes to beat Romney there.

Adding more uncertainty to the presidential race is that the order of finish in Iowa very well may not be duplicated Tuesday in New Hampshire. Such a situation would place even greater emphasis on Nevada's Democratic caucus Jan. 19 as a make-or-break moment. Nevada Republicans also are holding their caucus Jan. 19, but nearly all Republican presidential contenders are skipping Nevada and instead focusing on South Carolina, which is holding its Republican primary on the same date.

One thing that is increasingly clear is that Democrats, when compared with Republicans, are much more excited about their candidates, and it has been seen in bigger turnouts at rallies and in larger campaign contributions. A recent story in The Wall Street Journal referred to this phenomenon as the “political energy gap,” and that ultimately could be the overarching political story of 2008.