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STEVE MARCUS / LAS VEGAS SUN file
Thousands of homes in the Las Vegas Valley are in foreclosure, as was this one in Henderson, and growth has slowed considerably this year. Several policymakers are suggesting now is the time for Nevada to look for ways to diversify its economy outside of growth and gaming.
Saturday, Dec. 27, 2008 | 2 a.m.
Sun Archives
- Annual budget sessions to get look (12-26-2008)
- Nevada falls to No. 8 in population growth (12-22-2008)
- Vacant homes, fewer people. This is Vegas? (11-15-2008)
- Measuring population in moving boxes (8-4-2008)
That big sigh you hear is Nevada catching its breath.
After an unprecedented 20-year-plus run, the state has recorded its slowest growth rate since 1967.
Although the recession-stricken state is reeling from record unemployment, thousands of foreclosures, less gambling revenue and tightened credit markets, Nevada policymakers say there may be a silver lining: a chance for the state to chart a course less reliant on growth as an economic engine.
Nevada added fewer than 46,000 residents from July 1, 2007, to this July 1, an increase of 1.8 percent, according to population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau this week. That is the smallest influx in a generation. Nevada now ranks eighth among the fastest-growing states, after spending the past 23 years in the top four, including 18 at No. 1.
At the same time, Clark County’s population has declined by about 10,000, an estimate based on the growing number of vacant residences.
“A brief timeout isn’t something we asked for,” said Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid, “but it’s something we should probably take advantage of.”
For decades, Nevada’s revenue has flowed from the tourism-dependent gaming industry and consumption-based taxes, such as sales, tying the state directly to the national economy. The state has no personal or corporate income tax.
Moreover, much of government fiscal health has been tied to continued growth. New growth was required to pay for the needs created by yesterday’s growth, including schools, roads and health care. This resembled a Ponzi scheme, in which there is a ceaseless need for new investors to pay off the old investors. Without growth, there are no new investors.
As UNLV economist Keith Schwer put it: “When the business cycle turns down, the public sector ends up in chaos.”
Nevada now faces a budget deficit of more than $1 billion over the next two budget years, and Gov. Jim Gibbons, vowing not to raise taxes or levy new ones, has indicated state government may have to cut as much as 34 percent of its budget. Lost in the debate is this sobering assessment from economists and analysts: Southern Nevada’s days of frenzied growth are likely gone, never to return.
To be sure, the state, like the Southwest, is still growing, and experts warn against using one year’s growth rate as an all-important indicator. But Nevada lost its status as the country’s fastest-growing state in 2006, and has slid further down the list ever since. In terms of population numbers, Nevada appears to be approaching maturity, economists say.
“What’s going on is transformational change, not just a small adjustment in a high growth period,” said John Restrepo, principal of Las Vegas-based Restrepo Consulting Group LLC.
Still, analysts, including Restrepo, were pushing much rosier forecasts as late as April, when the housing crisis was rocking the country — and Nevada in particular — and Congress was debating action. Most economic forecasts at the time said the year’s growth rate in the Las Vegas metropolitan area would be 3 percent to 4 percent.
Applied Analysis, for instance, in its annual study of Southern Nevada, said the region’s economy “remains sound” and that the level of investment on the Strip, with a bevy of resort projects, all but assured the area’s continued growth.
The Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada, a liberal advocacy group, now is urging policymakers to rethink basic assumptions. “Quite literally, we’ve been addicted to the short-term stimulus from growth for a long, long time,” spokesman Launce Rake said. “Now is the time to take a deep breath and reconsider where we have been going and what we can do better — our educational system, our social safety net, our physical infrastructure.”
UNLV economist Alan Schlottmann echoed the thought, citing the anticipated 2009 opening of MGM Mirage’s CityCenter, which will bring about 12,000 new jobs. “Every time we open a resort we get thousands of jobs, but that assumes people will have disposable income to maintain those jobs,” he said. “We should be asking the question, ‘If we build it, will they come?’ ”
The answer has not only been yes since the 1950s, but some analysts have said new resorts must continually be built to promote more tourism — otherwise the economy will stall. With new construction came new jobs, and newcomers to the state to fill them.
The gaming industry, however, is struggling to pay for new projects because of declining revenue and the stingy credit market, so the job market has collapsed, chilling population growth.
The states with the fastest rates of growth are Utah, Arizona, Texas, North Carolina and Colorado.
Nevada historian Michael Green said Las Vegas should take the time to redefine itself. Indeed, some policymakers, such as Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, said such an assessment is long overdue.
“We should have been planning to prevent the bust,” Giunchigliani said. “But we treated gaming as if it were infallible. We bought the line that growth pays for growth — and growth absolutely does not pay for growth. We should start that conversation about doing things differently.”
At the top of the list, she said, should be economic diversification. The county should also undertake some public works projects to improve quality of life, she said. A light-rail system, for instance, should be revisited, Giunchigliani said.
Some economists said policymakers should consider broadening the tax base and reforming Nevada’s tax structure, which is overly reliant on gaming and sales taxes. Now, they said, is the time to make tough decisions.
“For a long time we thought we were young children,” Schwer said. “But we’ve grown up and we don’t know quite what we are.”
Sun reporter Alex Richards contributed to this story.
To think this "might" be a good time to rethink business in Las Vegas is something they should have done years ago.Guess they are waking up ?I hope so.This is not business as usual and they have to realize it.
1) When we had big growth, we heard, "Raise taxes" When we low or no growth, we now hear, "Raise taxes". Is there a time when the Sun's "experts" ever think we do not need to raise taxes?
2) Would not a broad base business tax or increasing them do the opposite of encouraging non-gaming businesses to move here?
tthe ceos and all of the people that think they walk on water need to give-up some of there large pay checks they get for doing nothing and we would not be in this bull- - - - thing
Thanks, Michael, for a thoughtful story (and including my humble off-the-cuff comment). I agree with Commissioner Giunchigliani. If we are to build a stronger, sustainable community, we need to address the fundamental quality-of-life issues that hurt, not help, our ability to develop a robust and diverse economy.
We have attracted many right-wing anti-tax zealots to Nevada, but we have done a poor job of actually addressing the needs that would attract productive businesses.
Talk to the high-tech folks. They want to see a community with schools that work and where people aren't dying on the street for lack of health care. So to the anti-tax militias - you're not helping our community. You're hurting all of us.
FallonSouth, you sure do have an axe to grind against the Reids, and boy does it ever get old. I have a feeling if the lights were turned on in this place, you'd scatter.
Launce, some of us prefer Nevada to stay true to its Libertarian roots, including some of us who were not "attracted" here but who have lived here since the 1950s and 1960s. I like to think we stand for the era of successful Nevada, where coming up through a public school system meant family responsibility that leads to indvidual responsibility that leads to positive self esteem and a society of individuals that carry their weight. This leads naturally to a society that is greater than the sum of its parts - something I prefer greatly to one in which the greater good is legislated to the lowest common denominator.
RPJ: I appreciate your perspective, but I think that through cooperative efforts we can build a society that works better on many levels. I am in Portland, Ore., with family over this holiday weekend, and I see a region that works pretty well - strong schools, a mass transit system that gets me where I need to go (despite a lot of snow), hospitals that aren't closing their emergency rooms and an economy that is holding up darn well compared to the rest of the country.
I worry that the economic libertarians and other right-wing folks have a romantic view of some Mad Max-style world in which the tough guys with the biggest guns get all the girls. That might be an entertaining science fiction movie but it's not a place where I would really like to live, nor would it be a good place to raise a family.
So I don't think I want to see government legislating towards "the lowest common denominator." What I want to see is government policy the encourages the greatest public benefit.
Do not want to rain your parade but Oregon's economy is in the dumper, too.
In Nov. 2008, Oregon's unemployment went up to 8.1% which is slightly higher than Nevada's.
Just like in Nevada, the only job sector that seems to grow is in the government sector.
The Portland school district is facing a large budget deficit.
If it was not for Nike's founder dumping his Nike stock and paying a state capital gains tax then it is said that Oregon would have had a budget deficit this year. He has paid $119 million in state capital gains taxes this year.
The state of Oregon is expecting to next year in 2009: "State officials warn that Oregon's slumping economy will probably force cuts for schools, social services and other programs early next year"
The economic forecast for Oregon is saying that will be more job losses next year and the Oregon recession will last beyond 2010.
There are cuts everywhere and the economy is hurting coast-to-coast. But comparing Oregon's situation to Nevada's is like saying both Florida and Alaska have some warm days. Just sayin'.
It is not "Las Vegas' fault" that there is a global economic meltdown. Look toward your current occupant of the White House and his trillion dollar lost war in Iraq.
We will recover from this recession and when we do Las Vegas will be back bigger and better than ever.
Vegas will back to bigger and better than ever when they wake up and realize that most people can't afford to shop at their high-end retail outlets, can't afford to eat at their celebrity chef restuarants, can't afford to sleep in $200 a night (or even $100) rooms and can't afford to pump thousands into the slots in order to get a half-way decent 'chinese freebie' and can't afford to play blackjack to the tune of $5 or $10 A HAND........bring back the cheap food, the cheap rooms and the $2 blackjack - scrap the junk giveaways that fastly become junk throwaways - get back to basics and watch them come.