Competition shapes up as NFR hits halfway mark

By Brett Okamoto (contact)

Monday, Dec. 8, 2008 | 10:31 p.m.

The 50th Anniversary National Finals Rodeo hit the official halfway point after a fifth-round performance Monday night in front of a 16,686 gathering at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

With only five nights left of competition, the focus is starting to turn toward the World standings. There is $42,999 on the line for the average prize in each event, plus a maximum $16,767 per round for a first-place finish, so each cowboy still has the potential to win $110,067 during the remaining five days. 

While most of the cowboys won't admit to thinking about the average or the World standings just yet, it's probably all right if the rest of us do. Here are the quick glances of each event and The Sun's predictions.

Bareback Riding: What more can you ask of third-year cowboy Steven Dent? He came into this year's Finals first in bareback riding with $151,213 and third in the all-around. He's rode all five of his horses, won $26,457 and placed fourth in the average. After all that, he still has to feel 2007 World champion Bobby Mote's breath on his neck. 

Mote came into Las Vegas in third place in the standings, down $26,570 from Dent. After placing in four of the first five rounds, including two first-place finishes, Mote has moved into second place in the World standings, $11,291 behind Dent. Mote tied an NFR record Monday night with a 91.5-point first-place ride. The Oregon cowboy was dominant in his title campaign last year and has stepped up to the challenge of playing from behind this year. 

"I've been in about every situation except for coming from behind," Mote said. "I know that being out in front can eat at you and trick you into doing some things you wouldn't normally do. You just have to try to not think about it."

Prediction: Dent is a terrific rider and will win a World title before his career is over, but look for Mote to win the average and the title, the third of his career.

Steer Wrestling: Luke Branquinho started off this year's Finals with a 3.6-second first-place finish in the opening round and has been cruising ever since. He's taken a check away from every round so far and built up a $36,398 first-place lead. 

The cowboy who stood the best chance to run alongside Branquinho, Wade Sumpter, has had a disappointing NFR. After coming in to Las Vegas with a slight lead over Branquinho, Sumpter has failed to place in any round so far and was sidelined Monday night after suffering a torn pectoral muscle injury the night before.

Prediction: With Sumpter sidelined having a hard time already, Branquinho should roll to the second World title of his career. 

Team Roping: The unquestionable big story of this year's Finals has been the team of Garrett Tonozzi and Kinney Harrell. The duo came into the NFR sitting in 15th and 13th places, respectively, in each of their World standings and both have moved up considerably after three first-place finishes.

The team has racked up $50,300 so far. Tonozzi, the header, has moved to second place in the World standings behind Matt Sherwood. Harrell, the heeler, is in third place behind Michael Jones and Randon Adams. So far this Finals, the young team has either had an electric first place finish or a 17- to 18-second bust. Despite the three winning rounds, they currently sit in seventh place for the average. 

"I'll tell you what, we're back in there every single night with the same game plan," Harrell said. "Maybe in the eighth or ninth rounds we'll start looking at the averages, but right now we know we're in contention and we're not going to change a thing."

Prediction: Tonozzi and Harrell will win at least another round but not the average. That will belong to the team of Trevor Brazile and Patrick Smith. Sherwood and Jones will hang on for their respective world titles.

Saddle-bronc Riding: Neither Cody Wright or Billy Etbauer were able to place Monday night, a rare occasion for the top two saddle-bronc riders in the sport. In one of the most intriguing races in the NFR, Wright has lost the small lead over Etbauer he brought into Las Vegas and now trails the five-time World title winner by $15,464. 

For the average, Etbauer sits in third while Wright occupies the fifth place. South Dakota cowboy Cody Taton currently leads the way as the only rider to have ridden every horse he's faced. 

Prediction: Five-time NFR qualifier Bryce Miller will take the average when Taton eventually falls. After getting out-earned by him by $20,283, Wright will get it together and prevent Etbauer from his sixth World title.

Tie-down Roping: After coming into the Finals with a $36,147 lead over his closest competitor, the wheels have started to fall off for Colorado cowboy Josh Peek. Peek placed for the first time in the Finals Monday night with a sixth-place finish. His lead over second-place Hunter Herrin has dwindled down to a virtual tie - $720.  

Always a threat, Brazile is third place in the World standings, a little more than $30,000 away from Peek and Herrin.

Prediction: Herrin has taken full advantage of Peek's slump. He's first in the average and had a first-place finish in the opening round. The Sun predicts Peek continues to struggle, while Herrin holds off the rest of the pack for the title and the average.

Barrel Racing:  Lindsay Sears of Alberta has had a monster year, entering Las Vegas with a $49,338 lead over the rest of the field. She's kept it going with $40,024 through the first five rounds, but look out for second-place Brittany Pozzi-Pharr, who took first place in consecutive rounds Monday night with a 13.80-second ride. 

"We are only halfway through the rodeo so anything can happen," Pozzi-pharr said. "Things are feeling pretty good right now. [My horse] Stitch is feeling perfect. I'll just keep riding and see what happens."

Prediction: Although it's been cut into, Sears's lead will prove to be too much for the rest of the field in the World standings. Cassie Mosely, Jill Moody and Pozzi-Pharr will battle it out for the average with the heating up Pozzi-Phar winning it.

Bull Riding: It's a good thing that Chance Smart built a lead coming into the Finals because he'll need it with the way Bobby Welsh and J.W. Harris have ridden. Both Welsh and Harris have out-earned Smart by more than $13,000, Welsh with a pair of first-place finishes and Harris by being the only rider who has ridden four of his five bulls. 

Smart is looking to hold off the rest of the field to win his first World title.

Prediction: Smart will just hold off Welsh and Harris by riding three of his next five bulls. Welsh will come up just short of the title, but still win the average.

McTaggart Watch: Colin McTaggart is the cowboy with the closest ties to Las Vegas in the competition. McTaggart was a student at UNLV last year and plans on returning next year to earn his degree in marketing. He entered this year’s finals, the second of his career, in eighth place in bull riding. Last year he finished 15th in the final world standings.

McTaggart rode his second bull of the Finals, Billionaire, for an 81-point ride. The 23-year-old barely hung on for the full eight seconds, getting launched off the bull onto the railing at the end of the ride. McTaggart took home $3,515 for the ride and is eleventh place in the average.