Use books’ numbers against them

By Jeff Haney (contact)

Friday, Aug. 15, 2008 | 2 a.m.

The original plan did not entail focusing so heavily on the AFC West in making our NFL season-victory over/under selections.

That was where the numbers led us.

In making four picks — two overs and two unders — we took an approach based primarily on gambling (as opposed to sports) statistics, figuring that factors such as strength of schedule and personnel moves are built into the betting lines.

The method involves projecting a point spread for each game of the regular season, converting the spread to a money line, converting the money line to a chance of winning the game expressed in percentage form, then adding up the percentages to obtain an estimated total number of victories.

In predicting the point spreads, we used a combination of the consensus Las Vegas line on games in the NFL’s first week, the Las Vegas Hilton’s lines on NFL games of the year, and the season-long, week-by-week NFL lines at Lucky’s sports books.

It yielded four attractive plays: the Buffalo Bills under 8 victories; the Denver Broncos over 7 1/2 victories; the San Diego Chargers over 10 1/2 victories; and the Oakland Raiders under 6 1/2 victories.

Based on the current lines at the Palms sports book, the price on the Bills under 8 is minus 120 (risk $1.20 to win $1). The price on the Broncos over 7 1/2 is minus 150. The price on the Chargers over 10 1/2 is minus 155. The price on the Raiders under 6 1/2 is minus 148. As always, shop around to find the best possible odds.

For our purposes, we’ll risk 1 unit on each play, or 4 units to win 2.83 units.

Arguably, three of the plays are linked to some extent, because the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders all compete in the AFC West.

We’ll take our chances. Ideally, heading into action on the final Sunday of the regular season, the Chargers will have the division wrapped up with a record of 11-4 or better and opt to rest their starters when they host the visiting Broncos, who will be hungry for a victory to reach .500 or qualify for the playoffs.

To illustrate the method, here’s how we figured the Bills’ season:

In Week 1, Buffalo is a 1-point favorite against Seattle, which in NFL betting equates to about a 51.2 percent chance of winning outright, or .512 of a victory.

In Week 2, Buffalo is a 10-point underdog at Jacksonville, which equates to .164 of a win.

In Week 3, Buffalo is a 6-point favorite against Oakland, or .706 of a win.

In Week 4, Buffalo is a 2-point underdog at St. Louis (. 466).

In Week 5, Buffalo is a 3-point underdog at Arizona (. 406).

And so on, with the Bills’ chances of winning ranging from 10.7 percent as a 13-point underdog at New England in Week 10 to 78 percent as a 7 1/2-point favorite against Miami in Week 14. All told, we figure Buffalo’s appropriate victory total comes in at about 7 1/2, which makes under 8, minus 120 a viable play.

The supposedly high vigorish we have to put out on the Chargers doesn’t bother us because we estimate their total victories at anywhere from 11.1 to 11.6. Some Las Vegas casinos have attached a season-win total of 11 to San Diego. For example, all Station Casinos properties have it 11, minus 120 on the over.

We prefer to lay minus 155 on the 10 1/2, however, considering the Chargers’ most likely exact number of victories is almost certainly 11. If you want to fade San Diego, however, you’re better off going with the under 11, minus 110, at Station.

After the results of the NFL games of Dec. 28, Week 17 of the season, we’ll revisit the four plays and either administer a well-deserved pat on the back or rehash the gory details, depending on whether these picks cash in or go down in flames.