Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Humble predictions of the outcomes in four of Nevada’s upcoming elections

Primary races are notoriously difficult to predict.

Low voter turnout — and what real state holds primaries in August? — leads to a dearth of reliable polling data. So you’d either have to be incredibly arrogant or certifiably insane — I’ll let you choose — to continue this tradition of publishing a political forecast days before the balloting (after more than half the people probably have voted early or by mail, too).

No one lets you rest on your laurels in the oracle business, either. It’s the what-have-you-done-lately mentality that we forecasters can’t surmount — no credit brought forward for predicting that upset by Joe Heck over state Sen. Ann O’Connell four years ago or last cycle’s near-unerring primary forecast, including in both gubernatorial primaries? I thought not.

I would like to boast that these predictions are based on a complex scientific system that only I can understand or that I have some mystical powers that account for my generally successful oracular activities. Alas, the truth is: They are guesses based mostly on instinct, interviews and, if I am lucky, polling data.

More than ever, I believe I am entitled to boost my percentage by including such no-brainer predictions as declaring all the congressional incumbents will win, as will House hopeful Dina Titus and Clark County Commission candidates Valerie Weber and Larry Brown. But that really wouldn’t be fair, would it?

Having said all that, and with my a priori excuses made, here are this year’s shots in the dark:

• The most important race? Justice Bill Maupin’s seat on the state’s highest court is the marquee race of the primary season, featuring a diverse quartet of would-be successors. All have put six figures into their campaigns, which so far have been relatively superficial and simply designed to garner name recognition. Kris Pickering seems ubiquitous on TV these days but Nancy Allf has a sizable buy, too. The only judge in the race, Washoe District Judge Deborah Schumacher, has been playing up that fact, but mostly in mail pieces. And Don Chairez, the former judge who has used his property rights advocacy in a series of office-shopping campaigns the past few cycles, has a lengthy spot and a colorful mail piece. I would not be surprised at any surviving combination, which makes this that much more difficult. But the predicting gun is to my head, so I say Pickering and Allf, because of their TV presence, trump Schumacher’s northern base and Chairez’s omnipresence on the ballot. But I wouldn’t bet a lot on it. Pickering, 32 percent; Allf, 28 percent; Schumacher, 26 percent; Chairez, 14 percent.

• The most interesting race? County Commissioner Bruce Woodbury is on the ballot Tuesday, but he shouldn’t be, according to that state Supreme Court decision on term limits. Too late, though, because the ballots have been printed. So despite all the attention in the media, and explanations posted at polling places, could Woodbury still win the GOP primary, thus throwing the race into chaos because the county central committee — aka Kooks “R” Us — picks the nominee? I think so, and not just because I think voters aren’t paying attention or because it would be more fun to cover the story if the party snubs Brian Scroggins in favor of Henderson Councilman Steve Kirk or longtime cop lobbyist David Kallas ... Woodbury, 48 percent; Scroggins, 40 percent; Duane Christy, 12 percent.

• Sir Bill’s last stand? Could state Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, one of the most influential figures of the past quarter-century in state politics, lose to ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, a backbencher and shameless populist? Perhaps. Indeed, the super-low turnout should be conducive to Angle’s brand of politics. But as Wallace Shawn intoned in “The Princess Bride” with great gusto: Inconceivable. The Raggio machine will give him one more term to be co-governor. Raggio, 64 percent; Angle, 36 percent.

• Can Carson City incumbents survive? Several lawmakers face strong challengers or self-inflicted wounds — or both — and could reasonably be forecast to lose Tuesday. But I am going to go against the grain — some legislator always seems to lose in the primary — and declare that all the incumbents will win. Assemblymen John Marvel and Bob Beers, as well as Assemblywoman Francis Allen, will survive Tuesday. Beers seems most likely to lose to Jon Ozark, who is the de facto party candidate, but his name will see him through.

I’ll save the judicial crapshoot for my general election predictions. But I am starting to rethink claiming the congressional incumbents winning their primaries as part of my tally Tuesday ...

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