Jeff Haney explores a novel way for bettors to analyze NFL games used at Station Casinos

Friday, Sept. 28, 2007 | 7:31 a.m.

Cover: To win the game by more than the point spread.

Limit: Maximum bet that will be accepted.

Proposition: Prop, for short. Any exotic, unusual or offbeat wager.

Straddle: The difference in price between the favored side and the underdog in a betting line, usually expressed in cents. Example: If the favorite is minus 135 (risk $1.35 to win $1) and the underdog is plus 105 (risk $1 to net $1.05), the sports book is using a 30-cent straddle. Another example of a 30-cent straddle is minus 120 on one side and minus 110 on the other.

DEAR MR. FANTASY

A scoring system based on fantasy football is used in Station Casinos' weekly dream football props. Here are the lines for the Sunday and Monday games. Odds subject to change:

Quarterbacks

Jon Kitna 18

Brett Favre 15

Tony Romo 20

Peyton Manning 19

Donovan McNabb 19

Tom Brady 23

Carson Palmer 19

Running backs

Ronnie Brown 15

Marion Barber 16

Frank Gore 16

Willie Parker 13

LaDainian Tomlinson 20

Travis Henry 15

Joseph Addai 19

Wide receivers

Roy Williams 11

Torry Holt 11

Terrell Owens 14

Steve Smith 12

Marvin Harrison 12

Plaxico Burress 14

Randy Moss 15

Chad Johnson 14

Even though they have more in common with good old individual player propositions than fantasy sports leagues, the dream football props at Station Casinos represent a welcome addition to the Las Vegas sports betting scene.

The dream props, launched this season and offered at all Station sports books, set a projected number for about two dozen NFL players each week and require gamblers to bet the over/under.

The player's number, or score, is based on a formula commonly used in fantasy football leagues. A player earns a point for every 30 passing yards, 10 rushing yards or 10 receiving yards. Touchdowns are worth 6 points and 2-point conversions are worth 2. Quarterbacks are docked 2 points for interceptions.

Station oddsmakers post lines each week on eight or so quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers .

Last week, for example, bettors could play San Diego running back LaDainian Tomlinson over or under 20 points before the Chargers' game against Green Bay . Tomlinson finished with 62 rushing yards (6 points), 33 receiving yards (3 points) and no touchdowns for a score of 9. Under bettors cashed their tickets.

The line on Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb was 19 points. In the Eagles' game against Detroit, McNabb had four touchdowns (24 points), 381 passing yards (12 points) and no interceptions for a score of 36.

It looks like an easy over in retrospect. The trick, however, was predicting McNabb's breakout game in advance. Heading into the game against the Lions, McNabb had been averaging only 212 passing yards and half a touchdown.

Here's a quick-and-dirty method to project Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning's dream score for Sunday's game against Denver .

The Colts are favored by 10 points in a game with an over/under of 46, meaning Indy is projected to win by about 28-18. Because that's a comfortable win but not a blowout, and not far off the Colts' average of 31 points a game this season, we can expect Manning to play fairly true to form.

Manning has been consistent with his passing yards, throwing for 288, 312 and 273 - an average of 291 , or 9 dream points. Let's say 9 1/2 for our purposes, even though half-points are not awarded in the prop.

Manning has thrown for five touchdowns in three games, an average of 1 2/3 - or 10 dream points. He has thrown one interception all season, so we'll dock him two-thirds of a point in our projection. Rushing yards and 2-point conversions haven't been factors.

So our projected dream line comes out to about 18.9. Lo and behold, when Station oddsmakers released this week's props Wednesday, the line on Manning was over/under 19.

Besides the scoring system, the Station props have little to do with fantasy football, a wildly popular yet completely separate endeavor.

But who cares?

It's a creative concept that allows sports bettors to analyze NFL games in a novel way, try to spot soft, or beatable, lines and back up their opinion with cash at the window.

Each prop carries a 30-cent straddle, standard for a sports betting specialty act.

Betting limits are $500 a pop, quite reasonable for a weekly set of unique propositions.

Contest update

Two head-to-head matchups are scheduled today in the Leroy's sports books "Money Talks" football handicapping contest.

From 2 to 3 p.m. at Fitzgeralds in downtown Las Vegas, Al McMordie faces Lance Blankenship (KENO 1460-AM).

From 7 to 9 p.m. at John Ascuaga's Nugget in Sparks, Paul Sonner, owner of Bully's restaurants, meets "Computer Bob," an engineer and computer scientist.

Last week, Wayne Peters (6-1) ousted one-name "Jay" (4-3), and Mike Corrigan (3-2-2) beat Connie Weber (2-3-2). The handicappers are a combined 25-26-5 against the point spread.

Each entrant in the 32-person field put up $5,000, the highest entry fee for a sports handicapping contest in Nevada.

Accountability corner

(In which accurate predictions made in past columns are righteously praised, and the ugly details of inaccurate predictions are rehashed.)

Las Vegas handicapper Joe D'Amico released four NFL picks in last Friday's column. All four were winners.

D'Amico (online at allamericansports.info) was on the Packers, Cowboys and Titans as underdogs. They all won outright. He also correctly predicted Pittsburgh would cover as a favorite against San Francisco. The Steelers won 37-16.