Carpenters union picks Edwards. So what?

Friday, Sept. 28, 2007 | 7:29 a.m.

What has the Carpenter s union endorsement brought John Edwards in Nevada?

Well, long shot Democratic rival Mike Gravel wasn't allowed to speak on stage at the union's picnic last weekend, nor was Democratic challenger Chris Dodd's wife. (Gravel also was bonked on the head by one of the rolled up T-shirt s the union gave away by firing them into the crowd, but that was apparently an accident.)

Conventional wisdom is that union endorsements are vital to candidates seeking to win the Jan. 19 caucus es in a state known for strong unions. Presidential aspirants hope the unions can deliver blocs of members to the caucus sites and reach out to other voters in the weeks leading up to the contest.

But 16 weeks before the contest, no one is quite certain whether those endorsements will convert into votes.

Nationally, history shows that union members turn out and largely adhere to the endorsements of their organization.

"People say labor is in decline in the economic arena, there's no doubt," said Peter Francia, assistant professor of political science at East Carolina University and the author of "The Future of Organized Labor in American Politics. " "That doesn't necessarily translate into politics. They can mobilize so well, they have kept their numbers fairly high."

The AFL-CIO said that nationally in 2006, 74 percent of its members who voted backed a union-endorsed candidate.

But no one knows whether those trends will hold in Nevada. One reason is that the party is holding caucus es , not an election, and caucus es require more involvement by voters than simply going to a polling place. Also, unions in Nevada have rarely tried to use their organizational muscle politically in the nominating process.

Take the Carpenters union, 12,000 members strong, and its event on Saturday at Sunset Park. About 3,000 members and their families showed up, an impressive turnout.

The union has endorsed Edwards , and the picnic area was littered with his signs.

"It looks like a John Edwards rally," crowed Bill Hyers, the campaign's state director.

But the line at the table where members could register to vote and get a complimentary Edwards for president sticker was not nearly as long as the line for hot dogs.

In interviews with a dozen members, none said they knew the carpenter s had endorsed Edwards.

When asked about the effect of the endorsement on his vote, Robert Mortensen, a 45-year member of the union, said he "will go with who the union suggests." The union "puts bread and butter on my table," he explained.

Others were less certain. After talking with Gravel, a former Alaska senator, Donna and Steve Schmidt said they liked what he said about the war in Iraq and health care reform.

The union leaders, Donna Schmidt said, "act like they can pick who you vote for, and that's not right."

She may have a point, at least in Nevada.

The unions backed Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus in her unsuccessful race for governor last year.

They also failed to defeat Republican Rep. Jon Porter in his reelection bid .

In fact, to find a high-profile statewide race where labor is widely credited with tipping the balance, political observers had to go back to 1998, when U.S. Sen. Harry Reid won by 428 votes.

"The evidence to date is that labor is much, much stronger at local elections than national elections, and even statewide stuff," UNLV political science professor David Damore said .

Danny Thompson, Nevada AFL-CIO executive secretary-treasurer, has a competing view. He said the state's unions won four of five statewide constitutional offices last year, and successfully targeted a number of legislators.

"Overall, our record is very good," he said.

Pilar Weiss, political director of the Culinary Union , which boasts 60,000 members, said that the union will focus on turning out its members for the favored candidate. The union has not announced its endorsement.

"We have a tradition of involving our members with the endorsement, aggressively letting our members know about the endorsement and turning them out," Weiss said.

The Service Employee s International Union and the Nevada State Education Association are also expected to wield clout at the caucus es , although the latter hasn't decided whether to make an endorsement, its political consultant, Dan Hart said.

For Nevada's early Democratic caucus es to become a litmus test of labor's strength, the unions will have to unify behind one candidate, Francia said.

Labor endorsements are particularly important for Edwards if he is to remain competitive in Nevada and nationally, Francia said. Polls show he is lagging behind Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois.

As for the Southwest Regional Council of Carpenters, the union started working for Edwards long before the picnic. Jim Sala, the union's Nevada political director, said its members are independent-minded. But with mail and phone calls, the candidate's message will get out to them.

Carpenter s union leaders will hold mock caucuses to train members. They have already started to send volunteers to the Edwards campaign to fashion yard signs, make phone calls and walk precincts.

On Saturday Dodd's wife, Jackie Clegg Dodd, hit the picnic , hoping that Nevadans' reputation for independence would mean union members would hear her make the case for her husband. They did, but as with Gravel, it wasn't from the stage.

"This is a great opportunity," she said amid the Edwards signs. "I'm from Utah, so I feel very comfortable among Westerners."

Her husband has been endorsed by the International Association of Fire Fighters . Whether that translates into Nevada support is anyone's guess. Nevada Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, a firefighter, has made his own choice. He endorsed Clinton.