Clinton proves hard to budge

By J. Patrick Coolican (contact)

Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2007 | 7:05 a.m.

What became clear from visits this past weekend from the three leading Democratic presidential candidates is that even though the candidates have made carefully calibrated alterations to their messages and their campaigns, the race remains remarkably static in Nevada and nationally.

Sen. Hillary Clinton, despite not stirring the hearts of the party's vocal liberal wing, remains in firm control as voters here and elsewhere put their trust in the Clinton brand. A recent CNN national poll put her nearly 30 points ahead.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards continues to court labor, hoping that a late break and a win in Iowa will energize his campaign in Nevada. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is trying to tap into a pool of voters new to the process, or alienated from it, and is using various rhetorical strategies to reach them.

That was the case in the spring - and for that matter, in spring 2006.

At a Clinton event at the East Las Vegas Community/Senior Center, Clinton showed a few of the reasons she has such command over the race. She was conversational and empathetic to people's health care problems, but not emotional.

"Are you ready for change?" she said, to great applause. The electorate, by a 50 percentage point margin, believes the country is on the wrong track, but she's clearly demonstrated Democratic voters in particular want someone a little familiar to them to replace President Bush.

"What's been underestimated is her ability to change minds," said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "Because that's essentially what she's done. The faction of the party who didn't believe she could win, has been won over."

Duffy and a host of other experts say Clinton has created an aura of inevitability with a tightly disciplined campaign.

They've had a detailed strategy, a plan for every day, and they've stuck to it and have never been thrown off by the other campaigns.

She's raised more money than her competitors - although Obama has also raised a lot, she's given strong performances in the debates, and has made few statements that have given a clear opening to her opponents.

Her Las Vegas visit was no different, and Clinton's opponents can probably expect more of the same.

Edwards pursued labor's vote Saturday at a carpenters rally.

He hit Clinton hard when he said the country didn't get universal health care in the 1990s, which it needed, but instead got NAFTA, which it didn't need. NAFTA is the free-trade agreement with Mexico and Canada that is still an irritant to labor unions because they believe it drove good labor jobs to Mexico.

Fourteen percent of Nevada's workers belong to unions. And as Nevada plays its first major role in presidential primary politics, party leaders hope labor will drive turnout at caucuses, where party members show up at specific times and places to publicly support a candidate.

The endorsement last month of the carpenters union, which claims more than 12,000 members in Nevada, was a gift to the Edwards campaign, which had moved some local field organizers to Iowa before recently adding staff in the state.

In spring 2006, Edwards spoke to the national convention of the United Mine Workers of America, who gave him a raucous reception. He was a labor candidate then, and he still is.

A T-shirt at the weekend Edwards event epitomized his struggle. His campaign has tried to emphasize that as a working class-raised Democrat from the South, he's the electable Democrat, that he can win red and purple states such as Nevada and Virginia.

And yet there was William Bo McKee, who's 55 and spent the past 20 years as a union carpenter in Las Vegas, wearing a "Nevada Carpenters for Hillary" T-shirt. "I do like John Edwards," he said. "He's a solid union guy. I just don't think he can win. And I'm interested in getting a Democrat elected president."

Obama and his campaign clearly feel urgency to change the race's dynamic. He criticized Clinton at a North Las Vegas event last week for poor judgment in the run-up to the war.

Clinton's vote to give Bush authority to go to war in Iraq has not been near the liability political observers thought it would be, with Democratic voters placing more faith in Clinton to end the war than in her opponents.

So what can change the race's dynamic?

In Nevada, there are still significant labor endorsements to be handed out: The Service Employees International Union has left decisions about endorsement up to its locals. SEIU Nevada met with Edwards and Clinton while they were here and is arranging an Obama meeting. Then there's the 60,000-strong Culinary Union Local 226, and the teachers union with 28,000 members.

But those unions aren't likely to back a Democrat who's not going to win the nomination.

So what can change this race, in Nevada and elsewhere?

If Obama or Edwards were to drop out, that candidate's supporters might all flow to the other in a kind of "stop-Hillary" coalition.

Or, Clinton could make a mistake.

Given her supreme discipline, Duffy said, "I don't see that happening."