Jon Ralston chats with Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama on serendipity, Hillary Clinton and breaking the GOP stronghold on Nevada

Sunday, Oct. 21, 2007 | 12:56 p.m.

When I suggested to Barack Obama that no one would find it credible that he happened to arrive at Culinary headquarters Thursday just as the union was settling with downtown casinos, he had a simple explanation.

"I believe in serendipity," the Illinois senator and presidential candidate said, with a smile.

If ever a statement encapsulated a campaign, there it was. Obama must actually believe he is the right man at the right time to take the leap of faith from being a state senator three years ago to try for the White House - needing to hurdle Hillary Clinton, latent and overt racism and the Republican nominee to get to Pennsylvania Avenue.

During a 30-minute car ride from the union headquarters to his speech venue at Cheyenne High School, Obama talked with great facility about Nevada and how it fits into his campaign for change. (Much would be written about his speech focusing on Iraq, how he was prescient and how, in mostly oblique references, Clinton was wrong. That I had heard a time or two. So I focused on more parochial issues.)

I asked Obama, admittedly with mischief in my heart, why he was even bothering with Nevada, a state he appeared to disregard earlier in the race, because Clinton (who is scheduled to be here today) seemed to have it locked up with her roster of endorsements, lead in the polls and ability to get an Environment and Public Works hearing convened on Yucca Mountain.

That last item caused the senator, who had been talking calmly and efficiently, to become animated. You could almost discern a shift in body language, in tone, when he says Clinton's name - or tries, less successfully these days, to avoid saying it.

"If the standard for getting stuff done was holding a hearing, we wouldn't have too many problems in this country," he retorted, clearly chafing at the notion that Clinton had a stronger position or knew more about any Nevada issue than he does.

Obama said he believes that here and elsewhere Clinton "is the default candidate. People have fond memories of the Democratic Party of Bill Clinton. It's a good brand. While they are still settling on making up their mind, it's not a bad place to park your vote."

That, of course, discounts the segment of the Democratic electorate that feels tremendous loyalty to Clinton. But Obama, executing a plan similar to what he is doing in Iowa, thinks he can overcome that at the grass roots.

"In a place like Nevada, where there is a premium on organization, I guarantee you we have the best ground game of any campaign in this state," he averred, citing precinct captains, volunteers and the 400 people who signed up for the caucus at his Reno event last week.

Obama also argued that his message might be ideally suited for Western states, especially Nevada. "There's not a lot of patience in the West for ideology," he said. "I think folks in the West are much more concerned with results, practicality, common sense. That suits my style of politics. I'm not coming from the tradition of spending all my time bashing Republicans."

I'm not sure whom he could be referring to.

Obama said he has found Nevadans to have "more independence ... You can talk to folks who are Democrats but conservative on some issues. You can talk to some conservatives who are libertarian and upset about the encroachment on the Constitution."

Obama also insists he is the man to change the almost unbroken, four-decade string of GOP nominees taking Nevada. (Only Bill Clinton, thanks to Ross Perot, has won Nevada since Lyndon Johnson.) Having visited a place such as Elko, Obama believes that some Democrats will make "the chronic mistake" of ignoring rural areas and not realizing they have to turn a 5-to-1 loss into a 2-to-1 margin of defeat. He also argued that, unlike other candidates (yes, we know who), he could get some Republicans there and elsewhere to vote for him.

Perhaps. But as John Kerry in '04 and Dina Titus in '06 showed, that strategy may be quixotic.

Obama would first need to upset Clinton and win the nomination. And if Nevada plays a role, so will the Culinary. That endorsement could still prove pivotal in who wins the state come Jan. 19.

And if I were Hillary Clinton, I might wonder if it really was serendipity that found Obama at the union hall last week or whether it was an omen.