Jeff Haney notes trends developing for college teams

Monday, Oct. 1, 2007 | 7:03 a.m.

Of the 120 college football teams whose games regularly appear on the betting board, only six remain undefeated against the point spread this season.

Cincinnati, from the Big East, and Kentucky of the Southeastern Conference lead the way with against-the-spread (ATS) records of 4-0.

Kansas and Missouri of the Big 12 are each 3-0 ATS, along with South Florida of the Big East and Louisiana Tech of the Western Athletic Conference.

Another three NCAA teams have yet to cover this season, with North Carolina State and Virginia Tech, both from the Atlantic Coast Conference, the most notable failures vis-a-vis the point spread at 0-4 ATS. Rice, of Conference USA, is 0-for-3 against the number.

When NFL teams get off to a good start against the spread, most savvy gamblers look for reasons to bet against them, expecting a regression to the mean. Handicapper Al McMordie, for instance, picked against high-flying Green Bay, New England and Pittsburgh this week in the Leroy's "Money Talks" contest. He figured those teams were overvalued in the betting marketplace and due to come back to earth.

Handicapping college football, however, where there's less parity and a greater degree of randomness, calls for a different strategy.

All we know so far is that the teams that are unbeaten ATS have generally exceeded the expectations of oddsmakers and the betting market while those yet to cover have fallen short of expectations. Whether the trends will continue is another matter.

With its nationally televised victory against West Virginia on Friday night as a 7-point underdog, South Florida vaulted into the top 10 but also probably ensured it won't have much point-spread value the rest of the season.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, has relied on a top-notch defense in winning eight in a row straight-up dating to last year and comfortably exceeding the expectations of oddsmakers and bettors. Saturday, three weeks after beating Oregon State 34-3 as a 3-point underdog, the Bearcats easily handled San Diego State, winning 52-23 on the road as a 14-point favorite.

At 5-1 odds, Kentucky was the fifth choice among six teams to win the SEC East on the preseason Las Vegas line, behind favored Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina. The Wildcats are also unbeaten straight-up, at 5-0, and have reached No. 8 in the rankings.

Kansas, a 25-1 preseason long shot to win the Big 12 championship game, has fattened up on nonconference competition as a betting favorite but will be tested in conference play. Like the Jayhawks, Missouri is also undefeated straight-up. The Tigers face division favorite Nebraska on Saturday.

Louisiana Tech looks intriguing from a gambling perspective, an unexceptional team that has started 1-3 straight-up and 0-2 in the WAC yet manages to cover as an underdog each time out.

Of the three underachievers against the spread, Virginia Tech has the best chance of meeting its nongambling preseason expectations. The Hokies, who were co-favorites with Miami to win the ACC Coastal Division, are 4-1 straight-up. They got thumped by LSU and won their three other lined games as a favorite, but failed to cover.

Watch the other two money-burners, as N.C. State and Rice are at risk of falling into the "dead" zone as the season progresses - hopeless cases against the point spread.

Rice, 0-4 straight-up, is coming off two games in which it went off as an underdog of 27 points and 38 points yet still failed to cover.

North Carolina State, which has not scored more than 24 points in 26 consecutive games against Division I-A teams, showed no offensive punch Saturday even against Louisville's questionable defense, losing 29-10 as an 8 1/2-point underdog. The Wolfpack's lone victory came against Wofford, a team not on the betting board.