Friday, Nov. 30, 2007 | 7:14 a.m.
Favored by at least 28 points Saturday against Pittsburgh, second-ranked West Virginia has the easiest path to a berth in the Bowl Championship Series title game Jan. 7 in New Orleans.
If the Mountaineers get by Pitt - you'd have to risk nearly $60 to win $1 that West Virginia will win outright, if you can find a money line on the game - they would most likely meet Missouri or Ohio State for the BCS title, the closest thing we have to a college football national championship.
Missouri is No. 1 in the BCS standings but enters Saturday's game against Oklahoma as a 3-point underdog. Ohio State, No. 3 in the BCS standings, has the week off and would probably move up if either West Virginia or Missouri lost.
A title game between Ohio State and West Virginia would be the most competitive from a betting angle, with a projected point spread of "pick 'em," according to Las Vegas sports betting analyst R.J. Bell.
If Missouri advanced to the title game, the Tigers would be a 3-point underdog to either Ohio State or West Virginia, Bell said.
"If Missouri was playing the game today, I think it would be 3 1/2," Bell said. "But the assumption is that if they make it to the title game, they will have beaten Oklahoma, which would be enough to knock it down to 3."
The Buckeyes against Missouri or West Virginia, neither a traditional college football name brand, would be an intriguing "old school versus new school" matchup, said Bell, an Ohio State graduate.
"I think the story is the use of the spread offense and how it evens out the recruiting advantages that traditional programs like Ohio State have," Bell (online at pregame.com) said.
A good example of the power of the spread offense against an old-style game plan came in September when Oregon beat Michigan 39-7 as an 8-point underdog, Bell said. Another came in last year's BCS title game, when Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 as a 7-point underdog.
"That certainly encourages the thought process that teams like Michigan or Ohio State can have a lot of trouble with faster, more spread-out offenses," Bell said.
Missouri was the biggest long shot of the three remaining leading contenders for the BCS title, having opened at odds of 100-1 to win the championship at most Las Vegas sports books, including Planet Hollywood and the Stratosphere.
West Virginia was the second choice on the board behind preseason favorite USC at many sports books at odds of 7-1 to win the title. Ohio State opened at 30-1.
Oddly enough, if LSU sneaks into the BCS title game - an outside possibility if West Virginia and Missouri lose Saturday - it would be favored against any other team, thanks largely to a home-field advantage at the Superdome, according to Bell's analysis.
Contest odds
No sanctioned wagering is permitted on the outcome of Leroy's sports books "Money Talks" football handicapping contest, which carries the highest entry fee, at $5,000, of any contest in the state.
Gamblers are betting on the results on an unofficial "underground" line, however, according to a local independent oddsmaker.
With 11 contestants remaining in the 32-person field, Las Vegas handicapper Erin Rynning and former Las Vegas sports book manager Nick Bogdanovich rank among the favorites to collect the $160,000, winner-take-all prize.
One proposition on the underground line matches Rynning and Bogdanovich against the "field," or all other entrants. The entry of Rynning and Bogdanovich, who are on opposite sides of the bracket and could meet in the Dec. 28 final, is listed at plus-210 (risk $1 to net $2.10), with the field at minus-260 (risk $2.60 to win $1).
Another prop asks whether the winner of the Money Talks event will be affiliated with the Vegas Insider sports betting Web site. Bettors who play the "yes" side of the prop at plus-200 have Doc Moseman, Jorge Gonzalez, Andy Iskoe and Marc Lawrence working for them. Bettors who play "no" at minus-240 have Bill Edler, Adam Meyer, "Sal" of Maddux Sports, Patrick Little, Bogdanovich, Rynning and Paul Sonner on their ticket.
archive
