Jeff Haney explains why Hawaii’s No. 1 offense may be no match for Boise State

Friday, Nov. 23, 2007 | 7:16 a.m.

Tonight's clash between Hawaii and Boise State could decide the Western Athletic Conference championship, with the winner moving closer to a potential spot in a BCS bowl game.

It features college football's No. 1 scoring offense in Hawaii (48 points a game) against the No. 3 offense of Boise State (44.2 points).

Both are 7-0 in the WAC, with comparable rankings in the BCS standings - Hawaii at No. 15, Boise State at No. 19.

Despite the similarities and a seemingly competitive matchup, Las Vegas sports handicapper Joe D'Amico sees enough of a difference in the teams to make his strongest betting recommendation of the college football weekend in tonight's game.

D'Amico likes Boise State as a road underdog of 3 1/2 points against Hawaii.

"Both teams are offensive machines, but Boise has a much better defense," D'Amico said. "Hawaii's defense gives up a few more points per game, and that's what's going to make the difference."

The betting marketplace agrees with D'Amico's selection, with the Las Vegas line drifting down at some sports books to 3 from an opener of 3 1/2. Both numbers were readily available in town this week, so if you want to "fade," or bet against, D'Amico's pick, you should be able to lay 3 with Hawaii.

Boise State has won five consecutive WAC titles, six games in a row against Hawaii and 17 in a row in the conference.

But it was questions about the health of Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan that put D'Amico squarely on the Boise State side at the betting window.

Brennan has missed big chunks of three games with injuries and sustained a concussion Nov. 10 in a game against Fresno State. D'Amico speculated that Brennan, who is scheduled to start tonight, could be more shaken up from the concussion than Hawaii team officials are willing to acknowledge.

"The team wants him in there, and he wants to be in there," said D'Amico (online at allamericansports.info). "And I respect that. But he has never beaten Boise State. And I think he's still a little more hurt than they're letting on."

In an NFL selection, D'Amico expects the New York Giants and their defense against the run to handle the Minnesota Vikings as a 7-point favorite.

NBA results

The Boston Celtics are living up to their billing as the projected comeback team of the year in the early going of the NBA season.

The Celtics, who added Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to a lineup already starring Paul Pierce, entered the season with an over/under of 49 1/2 regular-season victories attached to them - 25 1/2 more wins than last season, when Boston finished last in the Atlantic Division at 24-58.

The Celtics also had the league's biggest increase in expected wins from last season, when they left the gate with an over/under figure of 35 1/2 victories.

In their first nine games, the Celtics went 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the point spread.

The Memphis Grizzlies also were due to improve, according to oddsmakers at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book, who tagged them with an over/under of 34 1/2 wins for the season. Memphis finished 22-60 last season, the worst record in the NBA, and started the 2007-08 season 3-7 straight up, but 7-3 against the spread.

The Los Angeles Clippers and Minnesota Timberwolves were expected to sustain the biggest drop-offs from last year's performance, according to the oddsmakers.

The Clippers, after losing leading rebounder Elton Brand for several months with an Achilles' tendon injury, opened the season with an over/under of 30 1/2 victories after finishing 40-42 last season, or "under" their posted total of 46 1/2 for 2006-07. They have started 5-4 straight-up, 4-5 against the spread.

The Timberwolves, a team in transition after dealing Garnett to Boston last summer, opened with an over/under of just 20 regular-season victories, the lowest figure on the betting board. That's down 12 wins from last season, when the Wolves finished 32-39, and down 17 1/2 wins from last season's over/under of 37 1/2. Minnesota is 1-7, 3-5 against the spread.