Race Heads Into Prime Time

By J. Patrick Coolican (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 15, 2007 | 3:46 p.m.

Six weeks before the first contest of the presidential primary season, the Democratic candidates have arrived in Las Vegas for the most important campaign event to date as voters start to pay closer attention and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's aura of invincibility has faded.

Tonight's debate on CNN is the fifth of six debates approved by the Democratic National Committee, yet strange as it seems, it's quite possible the race is just starting. In a recent New York Times poll, half of Democratic respondents in Iowa and New Hampshire said it was too early to say whom they will vote for in January. This isn't unlike 2004, when huge swings in the Iowa and New Hampshire Democratic electorate came at the end of the race.

So, after nearly a year of campaigning, tonight is a night of first impressions for many voters. It also could be a prime moment to tune in.

The dynamics of the race have shifted, at least some. The change has shown up in public opinion polls but is more evident in the daily narrative of Democratic activists, campaign insiders and the national media, which roll into Las Vegas having declared Clinton the loser of the most recent debate, in Philadelphia, where she hedged on an answer about immigration.

The slip came just weeks after the race was declared all but over, with Clinton and her tightly controlled campaign gathering momentum in fundraising, endorsements, organization and her debate performances. After the Philadelphia debate, Clinton's campaign used surrogates to complain that Clinton was the victim of sexism when the other candidates and the moderator attacked her.

It backfired.

Clinton had fancied "the aura of inevitability" her candidacy enjoyed, said Karl Agne, a Democratic strategist not committed to any campaign and who worked for the Gore campaign in 2000. "Once she stumbled, and it was inevitable she would, you knew it would hurt more. There's a sense she's more vulnerable, and the others are jumping at it."

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in particular took a tough line with Clinton, depicting her as part of the Washington establishment and criticizing her recent Senate vote classifying the Iranian Republican Guard as a terrorist organization.

Anti-war critics viewed the legislation as groundwork for war with Iran.

Clinton said she favors tough diplomacy with Iran to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon. She insists she doesn't favor a "rush to war." Clinton and Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb offered legislation this year that specifically required congressional authorization before any military action on Iran.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama seems the beneficiary of the attacks on Clinton. As the leading alternative to Clinton, he benefits from challenges to the front-runner while keeping his own hands relatively mud-free, allowing him to continue his campaign themes of hope and consensus over division and down-in-the-dirt politics.

"He gets to attack half as hard but enjoy the benefit," Agne said.

Tom Schaller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland, Baltimore, agreed. "He's got Edwards to help him nick her up."

Agne and Schaller, who is writing about the race for The American Prospect, said that for Clinton to gain control of the race again, she needs to counterpunch.

Schaller noted that a theme of her campaign has been that she can take a punch and, in a general election campaign, give one back to the Republicans. She says she's been doing that for more than a decade. She now needs to prove it, Schaller said.

"In a polite but cheeky way, she needs to let it be known she'll hit back," he said.

Although Edwards and Obama in particular need to be forceful in making their case to voters, the first rule in these debates, in which candidates are subjected to some of the only unscripted moments of their campaigns, is to do no harm - do not create a newsworthy event, analysts said.

Examples of candidates who failed are legendary and numerous, perhaps most famously then-President Ford, who stated that Eastern Europe was not under Soviet control in 1976 in a debate with Democrat Jimmy Carter, who went on to victory.

"It's like the political version of the Hippocratic oath," said Robert Thompson, founding director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University.

Thompson noted that many viewers will not watch the entire debate but will see snippets of it, along with commentary, in other media.

One factor that will restrict the sound-bite replays, however, is the writers strike. Thompson noted that the strike has stalled production of national comedy shows that focus on politics, including "The Daily Show With Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report," that have been shown to drive perceptions, particularly among younger viewers.

Nevada Democrats will make their choice for a nominee in their caucus Jan. 19, expected to be the third competitive Democratic contest behind Iowa and New Hampshire. Tonight's debate at 5 on the UNLV campus will feature questions from a pool of 100 undecided Nevada Democrats.