As Dems prepare to debate, GOP chief offers counterpoint

Michael J. Mishak, Las Vegas Sun

Thursday, Nov. 15, 2007 | 6:53 a.m.

November has been a reflective month for Republicans.

A year ago they lost majorities in the House and Senate, finding themselves in the minority for the first time in 13 years. But the campaigns leading to next year's presidential election offer a way out of the political wilderness, says the chairman of the Republican National Committee.

To hear longtime GOP strategist Mike Duncan tell it, the party is well on its way, armed with a "back to basics" message and so many top-flight presidential contenders that party members are having a tough time choosing.

Duncan was in Las Vegas on Wednesday to meet with state party leaders and activists - and to provide ample criticism of the Democratic presidential candidates as the nation's eyes fix on Nevada for tonight's CNN debate.

Republicans at all levels will ride to victory next year on the backs of an unpopular Democratic Congress, promoting a platform of lower taxes, personal responsibility and strong national security, he said.

"The voters sent us a message," Duncan said of the 2006 midterm elections. "And we heard that message."

But Duncan's thumbnail analysis raises questions about whether he received the right message.

According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, the public favors Democrats over Republicans in three key areas: ability to bring about change, to govern in an honest and ethical way, and to manage the federal government. Public confidence in the party remains high, despite rising discontent with the Democrat-controlled Congress.

Another troubling sign for Republicans: Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage, which have been rallying points for the party in recent years, have diminished in importance among the party's voters. At the same time, the public is more supportive of a social safety net.

Duncan said he hadn't seen the polling.

He dismissed the trends and devoted a generous portion of a 30-minute interview to bashing the "do-nothing Congress" and the Democratic Party, labeling it as the party of "taxation, regulation and litigation."

"They've named more post offices and roads than anything else," he said.

He took aim at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ("she's confused her role with the secretary of state") and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid ("he's caved to the MoveOn.org crowd and the left of the party").

At one point, he incorrectly said Nevada is trending Republican. In fact, the state is trending Democratic, with Democrats holding their first consistent voter-registration edge in 15 years. The state Democratic Party recently touted its 8,600-voter advantage - up from 4,100 in September.

"When we articulate our message properly, we're in step with the American people," Duncan said. "When we frame the issues correctly and put them out there, people go with the Republican Party."

If that's true, polls suggest the party needs to work on its message.

In 2002 the country was evenly divided along partisan lines, with each major party garnering 43 percent of the public's support. Today half the public identifies with the Democratic Party, compared with 36 percent who align with Republicans. The 14-point advantage is the largest in nearly 20 years of Pew surveys.

Independents are breaking for Democrats this cycle. The trend became apparent in last year's midterm elections, as 57 percent went for Democrats, after the two parties split those voters in 2004, according to national exit polling.

Duncan acknowledged the list of Republican scandals - Ney, Abramoff, Cunningham, Libby - that contributed to the party's downfall.

"We lost our way," Duncan said. "And we were punished. There's no place on either side of the aisle for that."

Republicans have learned from their mistakes, he said, and boiled down the differences between the two major parties to one critical issue: taxes. The Bush tax cuts, the "death" tax, the alternative minimum tax.

But, in the presidential race, Democrats again benefit from voters' issues agenda. Taxes are relatively low on the public's agenda. Topping the list are the Iraq war, health care, the economy and education - all issues on which independents track with Democrats.

Duncan said Republican voters' nearly equal division among the top four candidates, as reported by a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, is positive because of the potential for bringing new voters into the party.

Again, the numbers don't seem to bear that out. Republicans are less engaged in the campaign and are far less satisfied with their candidates than Democrats. According to the recent Pew poll, nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents rate the party's candidates as only fair or poor, compared with just 28 percent of Democrats.

One reason for Republican optimism is the potential that Sen. Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee, and Duncan seemed to delight in taking swings.

He deflected a question about immigration, which is considerably more important to Republican primary voters than the overall electorate, to comment on Clinton's stumble on the issue in the last Democratic debate.

"That was a classic meltdown," he said. "She's such a calculating politician."

Perhaps most tellingly about how he sees his party's prospects in 2008, Duncan consistently referred to the presidential campaign and next year's congressional elections as "competitive." For all his optimism, he never used the word "victory."