Jon Ralston tells us the debate is good, but this caucus is everything

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2007 | 7:25 a.m.

During the 2004 cycle, timing was nothing for Nevada. This time, it is everything.

Four years ago Nevada was considered a potential swing state and Democratic fantasists still thought their nominee could win in GOP-locked Nevada. But no one was even chattering about the state's presidential caucus, which would take place on Valentine's Day. The race for the nomination would be virtually decided by the time Nevadans caucused, but Democratic Party officials nonetheless gushed about the 9,000-voter turnout - record-breaking, they boasted - at least five times what it was in 2000.

If they get 9,000 this year, local Democrats will be holding a wake, not a celebration.

Considering the attention Nevada has received from the candidates, reaching its apex this week with a nationally televised debate, and the work The Harry Reid Party has put into making this maiden early state effort successful, 2 percent of the state's 420,000 registered Democrats just won't do.

Don't ask what will. It's a touchy question around these parts, and just Tuesday, Senate Majority Leader Reid predicted 100,000 will turn out. That seems - how can I be delicate here? - nuts. (Perspective: Iowa had less than 8 percent turnout in 1976. So if Nevada gets 30,000 or so, I'd call that a success.)

Nevertheless, despite the enduring haughtiness of some of those Eastern elitists (and to think I once wanted to be one of them!), Nevada will be the focal point of the Democratic nominating process Thursday. This CNN-hosted debate could not have come at a better time as the field, led by the scorching rhetoric of John Edwards, is increasingly aiming at Hillary Clinton, who has been running an inevitability campaign in Nevada emblematic of her national strategy.

As the national media swarm into the state for the debate and once again learn how much better it is to be in Las Vegas than in Concord or Des Moines, the real question is not so much what occurs at Cox Pavilion on Thursday but what transpires across the state Jan. 19. The debate might be a test, with many questions from Nevadans in the second hour, but caucus day is the final exam for something the state has craved for a long time: legitimacy.

It's not enough to have our two senators in prominent national jobs - majority leader and head of the GOP campaign committee. For decades, with 1987's "Screw Nevada Bill" the nadir, the state has been the dumping ground for a cascade of cliches about its barren nature - both literal and figurative. This cultural wasteland of sin, where gambling and prostitution flourish, surely could not be taken seriously as anything other than a curiosity, a Third World island in the West, a tourist attraction but surely not a political barometer.

Early next year, though, as Iowans return to their fields and New Hampshirites dig out from the snow after imparting their great, great wisdom to the country, Nevada could be the place to be in Democratic presidential politics. (Besides brief stops at country bars and pita places - in addition to the requisite genuflecting before Gondolier Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson - the Republicans don't seem to have as much love for us yet.)

Consider the calendar: If, as expected, Iowa goes on Jan. 3 and New Hampshire on Jan. 8, no meaningful contest will occur until Nevada on the 19th. That's 11 uninterrupted days of attention and buildup for the Democratic caucus. (The GOP here isn't as lucky because of Michigan on Jan. 15 and South Carolina on the same day as Nevada.)

Unless the Inevitability Express rides to victory in Iowa and New Hampshire, Nevada will be especially meaningful - and even if Clinton does, she will not want the tidal wave to diminish in the desert. If Barack Obama or Edwards - or even someone else - wins or places well in one or both of those states, Nevada will be seen as a potential momentum-maker or momentum-killer. And if Clinton were to somehow lose both of those first two, she would need Nevada to stay alive.

The only guarantee before Jan. 19 arrives is there will be surprises in either Iowa or New Hampshire - or both. And there always are, which inures to the state's benefit.

The timing for this week's debate is propitious for Nevada, with all the chattering about whether Clinton will strike back Thursday, coming under assault again from all sides. But, with the 2008 calendar favoring the state, the timing for the Jan. 19 caucus might be even better.