AARP: Nevada voters need push to get off their duffs

Michael J. Mishak and J. Patrick Coolican

Tuesday, Nov. 13, 2007 | 7:09 a.m.

ILLUSTRATION BY CHRIS MORRIS

The Nevada Democratic Party has spent the better part of the year traveling the state to educate voters on the details of its presidential caucus Jan. 19. But, according to a recent survey, it still has much work to do - among older voters, no less, who are the most likely to participate.

The poll, conducted in August for AARP, a senior advocacy group, found Nevadans were the least likely to participate in their nomination contest among the four early-voting states - Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - as well as Florida.

The group announced last week that it had been forced to scrap plans for a second survey to be released this month because it couldn't find enough likely caucusgoers to poll. AARP forged ahead with surveys in the other early-voting states.

Jean Hessburg, the former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party brought in by Nevada Democrats to help run the caucus, said she found the results neither troublesome nor surprising.

Even in Iowa, with its long history of presidential politics, she noted, AARP has to spend millions of dollars on outreach to get members to the caucus.

Hessburg also said the Nevada state party hasn't started its own outreach effort, which will begin after the first of the year. About the same time, Democrats will be inundated with candidate advertising on TV and radio and fliers sent by mail, while the media here and nationally will turn their focus on the caucus.

Still, the findings are troublesome for Nevada Democrats hoping for a robust caucus turnout, particularly given the fact that, historically, seniors are one of the most reliable voting blocs in American politics.

In the run-up to last year's midterm elections, a survey by Democracy Corps, a Democratic-leaning polling outfit, found 70 percent of seniors rated their interest level 10 on a scale of one to 10, compared with 58 percent of the overall electorate. According to U.S. Census data, 68.5 percent of Americans 50 and older voted in the 2004 presidential election; 52 percent of voters younger than 50 turned out.

According to the AARP Nevada poll, just 15 percent of the state's Democratic-leaning AARP members said they were "absolutely certain" they would attend the Democratic caucus. An additional 25 percent said they were "very likely" to attend, with the majority - 60 percent - saying their attendance was possible. Republicans polled are even less engaged.

In Iowa, however, nearly 60 percent of Democratic-leaning AARP members said they were likely or certain to attend their state's Democratic caucus - about 20 points over Nevada. In New Hampshire, which holds a primary, potential participation skyrockets: 74 percent of Democratic-leaning members said they were certain to vote in the Democratic primary, with an additional 20 percent describing their participation as likely.

Also, 57 percent of Democratic-leaning members in South Carolina, which also holds a primary, said they were certain to attend the Democratic primary. The margin of error in the all the AARP polling was plus or minus 4.4 percent.

For their part, AARP and its Divided We Fail campaign are working to boost awareness of the caucus. Last month the group conducted a two-week information campaign, making 41 stops at libraries and senior centers across Northern Nevada. The effort attracted more than 900 people, many of whom were unaware of the state's January caucus, said Barry Gold, who's managing Nevada's Divided We Fail campaign.

"I think people want to make their voices heard - they just didn't understand the opportunity had presented itself," Gold said. "This is Nevada's turn to shine, and once people understand that, they want to know how they can engage."

AARP plans a similar campaign in Southern Nevada this month.

One obstacle for Nevada Democrats is the nature of the contest.

Nevadans are used to early voting and absentee balloting, neither of which is allowed in a caucus, where voters have to show up at a specific time and place to voice their preferences publicly. Even in Iowa, whose caucus has led the presidential primary pack since 1972, turnout runs between 6 percent and 10 percent.

The major Democratic campaigns have expressed frustration about the lack of voter engagement in Nevada this election cycle, but say they expect interest to increase in the next month as the nomination race peaks.

"We're seeing slow and steady progress," said Adam Bozzi, spokesman for John Edwards' Nevada campaign. "Here, people will decide late and become engaged late."

Thursday's debate in Las Vegas, which will be broadcast by CNN, could jolt Nevadans into recognizing the importance of the caucus, but the real engagement will happen in early January, after Iowa casts its votes, he said.