Pressure on candidates to perform

David McGrath Schwartz and Michael J. Mishak

Sunday, Nov. 11, 2007 | 8:02 a.m.

The blog will offer insights, analysis and breaking news from the Suns political and government reporters in Clark County, Carson City and Washington.

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The Democrats' presidential campaigns arrive en masse in Las Vegas this week, with the promise of candidates confronting Western states' issues in a nationally televised debate at UNLV - and the prospect that a poor performance could change the dynamics of the race, as in the last debate.

Thursday's debate - the fifth of six sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee - will be "our day in the sun," said Kirsten Searer, deputy executive director of the state Democratic Party.

The debate will be carried on CNN, which has invited 100 undecided "likely" Nevada caucusgoers to prepare questions.

The second hour is expected to highlight candidates' positions on issues important in the West, which many Democrats believe is crucial to take the White House.

Seven Democratic candidates will face off at the Cox Pavilion, taking questions from panelists Campbell Brown and John Roberts. Wolf Blitzer will moderate.

About 200 media members have been approved to cover the debate. About 2,000 people will be in attendance, selected by the state party and screened by the Secret Service.

That a candidate's performance can change the rhythm of the race was evident from the last debate, on Oct. 30 in Philadelphia. New York Sen. Hillary Clinton came under sharp questioning from NBC News' Tim Russert about New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's proposal to grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. She acknowledged saying that the plan "made a lot of sense," but then, after a moment, added, "I did not say it should be done." Sen. Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards seized on her remarks, questioning her candor - and her honesty. The exchange highlighted what had always been a vulnerability of Clinton, masked in large part by the perception of her inevitability. Democrats had come to see Clinton's laserlike discipline as the key to her winning next November.

But, with her stumbles, pundits and strategists declared that the former first lady and leader in national polling showed chinks in her armor.

Moreover, Team Clinton seemed to have lost the post-debate spin war, as her supporters declared the attacks evidence of sexism by the other candidates, a spin strategy that seemed to backfire.

Now, the debate comes to Las Vegas as this new dynamic enters the race.

Polls have tightened in Iowa and New Hampshire, and with all three major Democratic candidates building precinct-by-precinct campaign organizations here, Nevada is an open race.

Debates have often sealed a candidate's fate, on issues of substance and style. In the case of the former, Richard Nixon's eventual vice president, Gerald Ford, made a huge error when he claimed in a 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter that "there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe," which made him look naive or just plain delusional. Ford eventually lost to Carter. In the case of style, President George H.W. Bush in 1992 kept checking his watch during the first-ever town-hall-style debate. It seemed as if he couldn't be bothered. The press loved this and used it as a sign of how out of touch Bush was. He lost to Bill Clinton.