Jeff Haney on why it’s likely that the NBA Finals will be played between the Detroit Pistons and San Antonio Spurs

Monday, May 21, 2007 | 7:58 a.m.

With the NBA's postseason pared to its final four teams, a clear betting favorite has emerged in each of the league championship semifinals series.

The San Antonio Spurs were installed by oddsmakers as roughly a 4-1 favorite to get past the Utah Jazz before Sunday's Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, with adjusted series odds expected to be released today in Las Vegas sports books.

Heading into today's Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals, the Detroit Pistons are listed as about a 3-1 favorite to defeat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the best-of-seven series.

Despite the Pistons commanding a shorter opening price than the Spurs, handicapper Jim Kruger sees the Eastern Conference series as a greater mismatch, and says it's a good bet Detroit will represent the East in the NBA Finals.

"You have one team in each conference with a championship pedigree, and that's hard to overcome," Kruger said. "Detroit still plays very good defense, and they looked like they were improving during the (conference semifinals) series with Chicago.

"They're too talented. They've been there, done this. I think this series will be over more quickly than Utah-San Antonio."

The Pistons' balanced attack, in which all five starters and a sixth man contribute heavily, earns high marks in Kruger's analysis, as opposed to the one-man-band approach embraced by the Cavaliers.

The Cavaliers have relied on LeBron James and his 25.9 points a game in going 8-2 straight-up, 6-4 against the point spread so far in the playoffs, but an inconsistent supporting cast could hinder them against Detroit's efficient machine.

"Cleveland does have one outstanding offensive weapon, but with the rest of the team it's a roll of the dice as to how well they're going to play on any given night," said Kruger (online at vegassportsauthority.com). "So many different players from Detroit can step up. Any one of the five starters can be good for 20-plus points."

Cleveland's instability issues were on display in Game 6 of their series against the New Jersey Nets. With James forced to spend a long stretch of the third quarter on the bench because of foul trouble, the Nets outscored the Cavs 22-8 in the quarter. Once James returned, the Cavs rallied in the fourth quarter to outscore the Nets 27-12 and take control of the game.

"That's one of Cleveland's problems," Kruger said. "They tend to experience huge droughts in scoring."

The Pistons also are 8-2 straight-up in the playoffs, 5-4-1 against the spread.

Oddsmakers and bettors alike appear to be expecting a defense-oriented series in the Eastern Conference.

In Cleveland's series against New Jersey, the total in five of the six games went "under" the total posted in sports books, with the over/unders ranging from 181 to 186 points.

The over/unders in Detroit's series against Chicago were split 3-3 with the totals in a similar range, 181 1/2 to 185 points.

Anticipating a strong defensive game plan by the Pistons and more offensive struggles by the Cavs, odds-makers with Las Vegas Sports Consultants posted an over/under of 178 points for Game 1 - a significant drop from even the lowest over/under in either team's previous series. That total now sits at 176 1/2 to 177 points in most Las Vegas sports books.

For Kruger, low scoring does not equate to dull and dreary basketball, regardless of some critics bemoaning the exit from the playoffs of running-and-gunning teams such as the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors.

"That bothers me, when people say if they're not scoring 120 points then it's boring basketball," Kruger said. "They aren't students of the game. To me, a blocked shot is just as exciting as a throwdown or a 3-pointer."