Jeff Haney on maximizing your potential profit betting NBA long shots in the playoffs

Monday, May 14, 2007 | 7:07 a.m.

If an NBA team finds itself down three games to none in a playoff series - the way the Chicago Bulls did against the Detroit Pistons this past weekend - it's usually best to avoid the temptation of going for a big score by betting them to win the championship.

Once the Bulls lost the first three games of their second-round series against the Pistons, for instance, bettors could find Chicago at odds as high as 100-1 to win the NBA title at casinos that adjust their future-book prices after each playoff game.

The 100-1 isn't quite as juicy as it looks at first glance.

In more than 60 NBA playoff series in which one team had a 3-0 lead, the team down 3-0 has never come back to win the series.

Besides, a bettor who does want to go for a big score can probably do better than 100-1 anyway. The optimal strategy for that gambler would be to bet the "hopeless" team on the money line in each game of the series, rolling over the profits each time, then wagering on them again to win their subsequent playoff series.

Take the Bulls-Pistons series as an example, although the concept will likely apply to this year's semifinals (or next year's playoffs) if any team grabs a 3-0 lead.

Bulls backers could have found plus-140 on the money in Sunday's game, and about plus-200 in Games 5 and 7 at Detroit. Projecting a money line on the Bulls as the home team in Game 6 would be trickier, but figure somewhere between minus-140 (the price in Game 3 at Chicago) and plus-140 (the price in Sunday's game).

That four-team money-line parlay would pay between 36-1 and 50-1, or an average of 43-1.

Then, even if the Bulls were even money in both an Eastern Conference semifinal series and the NBA Finals (in fact, it's much more likely they'd be underdogs in both), our long-shot bettor would get at least 175-1 on Chicago to win the title - significantly better than the 100-1 on the board in Las Vegas.

NBA props

The Las Vegas Hilton sports book has been offering a selection of proposition wagers on individual NBA playoff games.

In Saturday's Cleveland Cavaliers-New Jersey Nets game, for example, the number on 3-pointers made by both teams combined was just about right on. The over/under was set at 12 1/2, and the teams hit 13 3-pointers. Larry Hughes outperformed expectations by scoring 23 points (over/under 16 1/2), while LeBron James came up short of oddsmakers' projections with 18 points and 6 rebounds (over/under 36 1/2 combined).

Preakness

Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense has been installed as a 6-5 favorite to win Saturday's Preakness, according to odds at the Hilton, followed by Derby contenders Hard Spun at 5-2 and Curlin at 7-2.

In a prop asking whether Street Sense will win the Triple Crown, "Yes" is listed at plus-280 (risk $1 to net $2.80), "No" at minus-340 (risk $3.40 to net $1).

Before the Kentucky Derby, odds on whether there would be a Triple Crown winner this year were "Yes" at plus-650, "No" at minus-850.

UFC

Chuck Liddell, the Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight champion, is a minus-280 favorite to successfully defend his title against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (plus-240), the last man who beat Liddell, in the main event of UFC 71 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena on May 26.

Also on the card, welterweight Karo Parisyan is a minus-300 favorite against Josh Burkman (plus-200), according to MGM-Mirage odds.