Jeff Haney on how the Arkansas Derby winner has resurrected a 125-year-old story

Friday, May 4, 2007 | 7:06 a.m.

Thanks to the Kentucky Derby's quirky if endearing relationship with its rich history, sports fans are going to be hearing a lot about what a long-forgotten horse accomplished in the year 1882.

No, not "Old Hoss" Radbourn, the Hall of Fame pitcher.

They'll be hearing about Apollo, the last Derby champ to win after skipping his 2-year-old racing season.

Apollo has reentered the popular consciousness because Curlin, the morning line favorite in the 133rd Kentucky Derby, will try to replicate the feat Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Curlin, the Arkansas Derby winner, was installed as a 7-2 favorite after Wednesday's post-position draw even though he did not race at age 2.

"If you haven't heard about it yet, they're going to be talking about it ad nauseam," said handicapper Dave Tuley of the Daily Racing Form.

Even as Curlin attracts more than his share of the Derby hype, as a long-shot specialist, Tuley will be betting against him. He can't justify such short odds on an animal that moves up in class and has yet to prove he can handle the adversity of a rugged 20-horse field like the Derby's.

Instead, Tuley has tabbed Great Hunter, who drew the far outside post position, as his best value play.

Tuley saw some hidden promise in Great Hunter's run in the Blue Grass Stakes, where he finished fifth after traffic problems down the stretch impeded his ability to make a big move.

Jockey Corey Nakatani should maneuver Great Hunter in front of his five competitors in the second gate (Nos. 15-20) and set up shop in an advantageous stalking position, according to Tuley's analysis.

A quicker pace than Derby experts are predicting on the front end should aid Great Hunter's cause, according to Tuley.

"They're expecting a moderate pace because there are no real rabbits in the field, but I think it could be a lot faster than a lot of people are saying," Tuley said.

Bettors who project a quick pace can back up their opinion by betting the official winning Derby time will be "under" 2:02, a proposition that pays even money at the Wynn Las Vegas race and sports book. The "over" 2:02 was listed at minus-120 (risk $1.20 to win $1).

The line of 2:02 and the slight premium on the "over" reflect the consensus that the field is lacking in speed demons. Only two of the past seven Kentucky Derbies have finished "over" 2:02, and one of those was on a sloppy track.

Great Hunter, Tuley's value pick, was made a 15-1 shot on the morning line, but those odds could drift up if the betting public becomes spooked by the horse's No. 20 post.

Tuley will also try to beat short-priced horses such as Curlin and Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ Street Sense (4-1) with his second, third and fourth choices.

He rates Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz (8-1), Hard Spun (15-1) and Scat Daddy (10-1) as legitimate threats and recommends using them in "exotic" wagers such as exactas and trifectas.

Although the annual Breeders' Cup in the fall ranks as the biggest day in Las Vegas race books, the Kentucky Derby still stands as the No. 1 individual race, and casinos respond with an appropriate amount of pageantry, partying ... and proposition wagering.

At the Wynn, for example, besides the time of the race, there's an over/under on the mutuel payoff of the Derby ($18.50) and odd-vs.-even prop on the winner's saddlecloth number (even is favored at minus-165).

With Todd Pletcher training five of the Derby starters, another prop asks whether a Pletcher horse will win the race (yes, plus-230; no, minus-270).

Looking ahead, a prop asks whether a Triple Crown winner will emerge in 2007 (yes, plus-650; no, minus-850).

"Someone will come out of this race, and people will be calling him the next Secretariat," Tuley said. "Especially if he's undefeated, like Curlin."