Jon Ralston on the depressingly low number of people who are voting

Wednesday, March 28, 2007 | 7:09 a.m.

Next week, when Oscar Goodman is crowned for a third term as master of his domain, venture a guess on how many of Las Vegas' 500,000 residents will have participated in the coronation.

It's not that you can't count that high, folks; it's that you can't count that low.

By the time the mayor of Las Vegas declares victory Tuesday night, with a huge percentage of the vote once again, he will have garnered about 20,000 votes - and I am being very generous. (I often am with Goodman.)

Do the math: Goodman's mandate will have come from about 4 percent of the city's residents. Four percent!

No better example could be used about the state of Nevada democracy than this one, where the needs of the many are determined by the votes of the few, where most city denizens probably have no idea an election will take place Tuesday. (Actually, early voting began a week and a half ago.)

This is not just - or even mainly - about Oscar Goodman, though. To his credit, His honor has been running television spots encouraging people to participate. Sure, he's also doing it to remind people there actually is an election taking place, and he wants to make sure people don't forget to vote for him.

He will not be denied his 90 percent. But 90 percent of what? Consider that even with his television buy, the most popular elected official in the valley will not be able to boost turnout up much past 15 percent.

This is pathetic. This is disturbing. And, most of all, it is frightening.

The numbers from a municipal primary surely are anomalous in that they are always unusually low. But they are emblematic of what is occurring in the political process, especially in a valley where a G-Sting hangover has depressed the locals and where endemic factors from a generally uneducated populace to a Balkanized society have contributed to an alienation from government.

It's not like this is a new trend. Four years ago, the last Goodman crowning, just over 18 percent of the electorate turned out in the municipal primary. Numbers were similar in Henderson, although Boulder City, where half the electorate turned out, was the exception. Our little bastion of participation in the south valley.

But remember, those are percentages of the number of registered voters. That's not all the residents. This is a hoary rant but it's more relevant than ever - again, some math:

Of the half-million residents of the city of Las Vegas, just over 200,000 are registered to vote. That's a little more than 40 percent of those eligible to participate who choose to register. And so that 18 percent figure - and we will be lucky to get there this year - is of that 40 percent.

The numbers in the various council races around the valley are similar - or worse. For instance, in Gary Reese's council ward, as of Tuesday, only 348 people had gone to the polls - and early voting started March 17. Three-hundred-forty-eight! There are more than 23,000 people registered in Reese's ward - so that means less than 2 percent have turned out .

Over in Lois Tarkanian's more competitive race for reelection, 1,583 have turned out. But that's still not even 5 percent. So consider how many actual residents of Ward 1 will be making the decision to either reelect Tarkanian (if she gets 50 percent plus one next Tuesday) or to help Officer Laurie Bisch or businessman Shawn Spanier advance to the general. And how much do you think those voters know about Bisch or Spanier - or even Tarkanian (hey, I know that name!) for that matter.

So what's the solution? Clearly it is not early voting, which has not appreciably increased turnout in any elections over the years. But consider that some observers think that without early voting, these totals would be even lower, a truly terrifying thought.

It's hard to make people be interested if they believe the election is fixed. But the saddest news of all is that incumbents generally like super-low turnouts because they can afford the infrastructure to get their people to the polls. That is, they can fix the outcomes.

So for all of you who won't vote this time, I hope you like the government you didn't take the time to ask for.