Jon Ralston on how important Nevada, labor are in race for White House

Friday, March 23, 2007 | 6:56 a.m.

Coincidences happen as often in politics as unscripted moments.

So when Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd drops a bill today in Washington that would address a critical issue for nurses right before he leaves for a Nevada forum sponsored by the local union representing nurses, that is not happenstance.

The move by Democratic presidential hopeful Dodd, which would make it more difficult for management to classify workers as supervisors and thus subtract from union membership, is emblematic of what is occurring during the next couple of days in Las Vegas.

As the Democratic candidate invasion begins anew, one month after they bivouacked in Carson City, it's no wonder the Republicans are now trying to move their caucus to Jan. 19, too. Dodd's bill amending the National Labor Relations Act shows not only the potency of labor in this nominating process but also indicates how important Nevada will be in the calculus of the candidates in the White House sweepstakes.

Dodd, like other Democratic hopefuls not named Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton or John Edwards, needs to look for any angle, for any edge. It's no secret that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has adopted a Nevada or Bust campaign, hoping to show up decently in Iowa and get a bump here before New Hampshire. It's his only shot, and he knows it.

So they will do anything to get attention from the key states and key special interests. And that sets the stage for the Service Employees International Union-sponsored forum this weekend, where most of the Democratic contenders will appear but, as with Carson City and the American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees event, will not interact - at least not for public consumption. The health care forum, slated to last four hours, could be mind-numbingly boring except for policy wonks. But the local media will be in a frenzy and the candidates will compete for as much coverage as they can garner.

They will come, they will pander, they will leave. In between, they will show they have read their briefing papers on the state, and we will see how many can speak Spanish or speak labor or speak Nevadan (as opposed to Ne-vah-duhn).

But there is a fine line between pandering, which can range from subtle to grotesque, and paying attention to issues because you have no choice. Most politicians are like most children: Their attention spans are minuscule. So when it comes election time, whether it's for City Hall or the White House, they will be ever-solicitous for as long as necessary. The question for the candidates is the same as for the child who promises to clean his room: Will the pledge be worth anything later?

One kind of betrothal that will be long-lasting, though, is the union-love on display this weekend. It may not always be sincere, but it is convenient.

Even though SEIU isn't necessarily thought of in a brotherly way by all of its labor brethren here - and some think the union set the bar too high in its recent dispute with local hospitals - the Saturday health care forum highlights the union's clout in the Democratic Party.

Just in case anyone forgot, though, the biggest local labor power, the Culinary, will hold a contract rally tonight at its headquarters , with 5,000 people expected. That number includes four of the presidential contenders - Richardson, Obama, Clinton and Dodd - who will have to try to outdo one another to genuflect to the workers who could become future caucus-goers and determine the winner Jan. 19.

It would be so cynical to suggest that the Culinary is sending a signal to SEIU a few hours before it hosts the candidates to remember who the real labor boss is in Southern Nevada. So I shall not suggest such a thing.

Nor shall I suggest that some of the presidential contenders have to be wondering if Clinton already has the state locked up with the Senate majority leader's son, Rory Reid, helming the effort. Nor shall I suggest that the state is redder than it looks because of places where you won't see forums like Saturday's - places with names like Ely, Elko and Winnemucca. And nor shall I suggest that whatever the candidates say tonight and tomorrow may not have much resonance a month or a year or, more importantly, 20 months from now.

No, let's do what the candidates will do this weekend: Live in the moment.