Jeff Haney sifts through dozens of NCAA tournament propositions to make recommendations on five players

Friday, March 23, 2007 | 6:57 a.m.

From left, Vanderbilts Derrick Byars, Georgetowns Roy Hibbert, USCs Nick Young, UNLVs Kevin Kruger and Butlers A.J. Graves each offers value at the betting window for those wishing to wager on player propositions.

It can pay to go beyond the obvious when analyzing proposition wagers on the NCAA basketball tournament.

Several individual player props are among the exotic betting opportunities available on tournament action at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

Casual bettors might take a player's season-long average in a particular category, look at the number on the board and use that comparison as the basis for their wager.

More often, though, a deeper analysis is required to determine whether a prop offers any value.

Following is a breakdown of some of the Hilton's props on individual players in today's tournament games:

Points scored by Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt: over/under 16 1/2

Byars enters today's game against Georgetown with a season average of 16.9 points a game, but he has been performing better in Vanderbilt's last 10 games - a more accurate barometer of his current form.

In the Commodores' past 10 Byars has an average of 18.8 points a game, pointing to a bet on the "over."

Considering Georgetown is favored by 7 1/2 points with an over/under on the game of 131 1/2 points, Vanderbilt is expected to lose and score in the low 60s.

Byars will be facing a Georgetown team that is ranked fifth in the nation in field-goal defense, but that factor is likely built into the projected final.

Byars' performance in similar games this season also suggests "over" is the way to play it. In the nine games Vanderbilt lost by 7 or more points, Byars scored more than 16 1/2 points five times. When Vanderbilt scored in the 60s, the "over" 16 1/2 would have cashed five of seven times, indicating Byars can still score even when the rest of the team's offense slumps.

Because I don't think the betting line in today's game is off significantly, I'd play Byars "over" 16 1/2.

Points plus rebounds by Roy Hibbert, Georgetown: over/under 21 1/2

The Hoyas' 7-foot-2 man in the middle has a season average of 19.1 in this category, and 18.5 in the past 10 games. He has gone comfortably "over" in his three most recent outings, with totals of 29 twice and 23.

But an intangible factor puts me on the "under." I expect Hibbert to play fewer minutes than average today, meaning he'll have less of an opportunity to compile points and rebounds.

My reasoning is that against teams with lineups similar to Vanderbilt's - lots of 3-point shooting specialists, no real center - Hibbert has been benched in favor of Patrick Ewing Jr., a superior defensive player against sharpshooters.

For example, against the top three teams in the Big East in 3-point shooting - Notre Dame, Villanova and West Virginia - Hibbert played fewer minutes than usual and went "under" 21 1/2 points-plus-rebounds four of six times.

Points plus rebounds by Nick Young, USC: over/under 23 1/2

Young's average in this category is 22 over both the course of the season and in USC's past 10 games. North Carolina is favored by 8 1/2 points today, and the "under" would have cashed in five of the six games the Trojans lost by 7 points or more.

It's possible the total was posted a little higher than expected because of the hype surrounding Young in the first two rounds of the tournaments, when he recorded 29 and 27 points-plus-rebounds. Young's NBA stock has risen since the tournament began, as he's now projected as the ninth overall selection at nbadraft.net.

I'd play the "under" against a slightly inflated figure of 23 1/2.

Will Kevin Kruger, UNLV, miss at least 1 free throw? (Yes, plus-135; No, minus-155)

In the past three seasons, Kruger has hit his free throws at rates of 81, 82 and 83 percent, which tells me it's even money that he'll miss one if he gets five to six attempts.

With Oregon favored by 2 1/2 points today - indicating a close game - there's a good chance it could become a foul fest late, meaning Kruger should get more attempts than average.

In his past eight games, he has taken an average of 5.25 free throws, so I'd make the "Yes" closer to even money and take a shot at the plus-money on this prop.

Points scored by A.J. Graves, Butler: over/under 17 points

Graves brings a season-long average of 17.3 points into today's game, but an average of just 15 1/2 in the past 10.

The oddsmakers figure Butler will score fewer than 60 points in a loss to Florida today, and recent history shows Graves' scoring goes down when his team struggles offensively. With Butler scoring 64 or less recently, Graves has scored 19, 18, 12, 13, 5 and 10.

I'd play "under" 17 for Graves today.