Jon Ralston on Gibbons’ low poll numbers in a new survey

Wednesday, March 14, 2007 | 7:20 a.m.

It is hard these days to find a politician less popular than George. W. Bush. Ladies and gentlemen, meet Jim Gibbons.

In the first gauge of the governor's popularity since he assumed the office, the results are nothing short of devastating for Gibbons, indicating that his unrivaled series of embarrassments (covered by most of the media) have taken their toll.

Gibbons didn't come into office riding a crest. He survived three scandals, received only 48 percent of the vote and had a soaring negative rating.

But the results of a survey taken last week indicate that an astonishingly low percentage of voters - 29 percent - say they approve of the job Gibbons is doing (or not doing, perhaps) as governor. And worse yet for the governor, his base appears to be cracking - only 40 percent of Republicans say they approve of his job performance.

Once that GOP foundation crumbles, he cannot possibly survive unless his opponents are completely inept. So he has a chance.

Let's look at the numbers obtained by Voter Survey Service, a Pennsylvania-based polling outfit that is auditioning for business in Nevada and conducted a self-funded statewide survey last week of 500 voters. The poll, which has a margin of error of just over 4 percent, showed 33 percent disapprove of the job Gibbons is doing and 38 percent are undecided. It's that latter number that piqued my interest most of all because it seemed an indicator that Republicans were moving from backing Gibbons to backing off the governor after all that has happened.

And sure enough, a closer look indicates that is exactly what is occurring. If Gibbons is looking for a silver lining - and how he must be every day - a significant percentage of Democrats and independents also say they are undecided about the governor's performance.

Forty percent of Republicans approve of the job Gibbons is doing, an ominous development. For contrast, 63 percent of Republicans surveyed approve of the president's job performance - and overall President Bush has a 34 percent approval rating, slightly higher than the governor.

(Fifty-seven percent disapprove of the president's performance and 10 percent are undecided. For context, 55 percent approve of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's performance and 34 percent disapprove. By the way, before the Gibbons lapdogs start barking, the polling outfit is independent and leans toward Republicans.)

Only 20 percent of Democrats approve of Gibbons' performance - who are they, Fox News lovers?) - and 47 percent disapprove. A third of Democrats are undecided - and I can guarantee none is a blogger.

Independents (25 percent approve, 34 percent disapprove) are more evenly split, but you can see how problematic these results are for the governor. As the polling memo with the survey put it, the governor's "negative media coverage may have shortened the kind of 'honeymoon' newly elected incumbents usually receive upon taking office."

Yes, this is the kind of honeymoon in which a nice dress (a $10,000 Armani, perhaps) and getting showered with secret but valuable gifts ($200,000 worth) only seem to make you want to go over Niagara Falls, that mecca for happy couples, in that proverbial barrel.

That "negative media coverage" referred to by the pollster actually focused on the FBI probe in the governor's cruising with donor Warren Trepp, which 77 percent of respondents said they knew about. I am always suspicious of such questions because I think many of those polled would say they know about it to appear knowledgeable. But even so, the FBI investigation, now dormant in the media, has been superseded by coverage, except by lazy or prostrate media organizations, of an incipient state probe of that secret legal defense fund.

How do you survive? Having the feds drop their investigation would be helpful. Having state authorities do nothing about a personal slush fund not subject to any disclosure requirements would be great. Understanding the budget, being able to explain empowerment schools, showing leadership on something, anything might provide a boost.

If none of those things happen, the least of Jim Gibbons' problems will be having lower numbers than a lame duck president.