Monday, March 12, 2007 | 7:38 a.m.
The most surprising part of the NCAA basketball regular season, from a sports betting outlook, might be how unsurprising it was.
At least at the top, college hoops played out true to form.
Last April, when Las Vegas Hilton oddsmakers posted early betting lines on which team would win the 2007 men's NCAA basketball tournament, the four favorites were Florida (7-1), North Carolina (7-1), Kansas (8-1) and Ohio State (8-1).
In early September, MGM-Mirage oddsmakers rolled out their lines on the tournament, featuring the same four favorites: Florida (4-1), North Carolina (6-1), Kansas (6-1) and Ohio State (8-1).
Then, on Sunday, the NCAA selection committee announced the four No. 1 seeds in this year's tournament, which begins in earnest Thursday (after a play-in game Tuesday). Yep. Florida, North Carolina, Kansas, Ohio State.
Perhaps the most disappointing team was LSU, which opened at odds of 15-1 at the Hilton, the sixth choice overall, but failed to make the tournament after going 17-15 (11-18-1 against the point spread).
Wisconsin had a strong performance against oddsmakers' expectations, opening as high as 75-1 to win the tournament at the Palms sports books but earning a No. 2 seed in the Midwest region Sunday.
That doesn't mean bettors should expect to make an automatic profit by backing the Badgers, or the four No. 1 seeds, in the first round of the tournament.
Although top seeds used to be a solid first-round bet against the spread, the pattern has shifted in recent years.
Since the 2004 tournament, No. 1 seeds have a record of either 3-8-1 or 4-8 against the point spread in their opening games (depending on whether you laid 27 or 28 points with North Carolina against Oakland in 2005; both numbers were available in Las Vegas).
Top seeds went 2-2 against the spread in each of the two previous years, making them 8-12 (40 percent) at best since 2002.
Last year the only No. 1 seed to cover the spread in the first round was Memphis against Oral Roberts. Even Duke, 6-0 in the 2005-06 regular season as a favorite of more than 20 points, failed to cover as a 26-point choice against Southern, winning 70-54.
On Sunday Florida was installed as a 28-point favorite against Jackson State; North Carolina minus-26 1/2 against Eastern Kentucky; and Ohio State minus-21 1/2 against Central Connecticut State. (Kansas meets the winner of the play-in game.)
All four of the No. 1 seeds fit into another "bet-against" subset. Credit goes to Las Vegas professional gambler Fezzik (one name only, please) for pointing out that if you're risking money at the betting windows, you don't want to back teams who have a "hot hand" heading into the NCAA tournament, as their perceived value tends to be artificially inflated in the marketplace.
Ideally, according to this strategy, you'd like to back teams in the first round that were disappointments in their conference tournaments against teams that won their conference tournaments and so enter the "big dance" on a roll.
Last year in this space, we identified four teams that were undervalued, and three of them - Texas A&M, West Virginia and North Carolina State - covered the spread in the first round. The fourth, Gonzaga, won but failed to cover a 5 1/2-point spread against Xavier.
This year we'll take a look at four more (the drawback being that the "hot hands" all came out as underdogs):
Tourney contest
Bettors have until 9 a.m. Thursday to register for the "Last Man Standing" college basketball contest at all Station Casinos properties.
Contestants make a selection each day of the NCAA tournament, advancing only if they pick a winner. Selection days are Thursday through Sunday, March 18; March 22-25; March 31 and April 2.
One cash prize will be awarded, with 100 percent of the entry fees returned in the prize pool and a guaranteed minimum of $25,000. It's $25 to enter, or four entries for $75.
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