Jeff Haney explains why the winner of the HORSE tournament may be the best player coming out of the World Series of Poker
Wednesday, June 20, 2007 | 7:09 a.m.
It's the most expensive tournament to enter at the World Series of Poker, and many professionals consider its champion the game's best all-around player.
The world championship HORSE tournament, which begins Sunday at the Rio, carries a $50,000 price tag just to buy in. The HORSE event - each letter in the acronym stands for a form of poker played in a rotation of games - is expected to draw a field made up of poker's toughest pros and last a grueling five days.
Given the event's status as the most highly anticipated tournament on the World Series' undercard, speculation on who will win is taking place far beyond the confines of the Amazon Room at the Rio Pavilion.
As a case in point, oddsmakers at the offshore sports book Pinnacle have issued a comprehensive list of betting odds on who will emerge as the HORSE champion.
Pinnacle, based in Curaao, in the Netherlands Antilles, caters to bettors worldwide - with the notable exception of the United States, where online gambling remains under attack by politicians. (Wagering on the outcome of poker tournaments is not permitted in Nevada sports books.)
The offshore oddsmakers are giving poker bettors a fair shake considering it's a rather specialized form of gambling, with 99 individual players listed, many at odds ranging from 80-1 to 100-1.
Phil Ivey, who finished third in last year's inaugural $50,000 HORSE event, was installed as the favorite at 25-1 , followed by Patrik Antonius, who also advanced to last year's star-packed final table before finishing ninth, at 35-1.
Several players are listed at 40-1, including defending champ Chip Reese, Barry Greenstein and Daniel Negreanu.
Because of the large entry fee and the relative obscurity of some of the games involved (razz, anyone?), the HORSE tournament figures to attract a relatively compact field.
Last year's event drew 143 entrants, providing a safe and sane refuge for poker aficionados from the fire-breathing dragon the World Series of Poker has become in recent years, with its frenzied atmosphere and overflow tournaments drawing thousands of players.
Tournaments commanding high buy ins and featuring games other than Texas hold ' em have attracted manageable fields so far at this year's World Series, which runs through July 17. A $5,000 HORSE tournament that concluded Sunday drew 192 entrants, for example, and 180 players entered a $5,000 7-card stud tournament earlier.
The final table of this year's HORSE event should be loaded again because experience in each of the games in the rotation counts for so much, as Reese pointed out after his victory last year.
Reese, who earned the top prize of $1.78 million in last year's tournament, said he and his colleagues who frequently compete in high-stakes cash mixed games have a distinct advantage against players who don't. "Their weakness shows up in one game or another," Reese said.
Reese is a regular in the Strip's biggest cash games, where the form of poker played can rotate among hold ' em (the H in HORSE), Omaha high-low split (the O), razz (the R), 7-card stud (the S), 7-card stud high-low split eight or better (the E), and myriad other games.
Last year's final table also included heavy hitters such as runner-up Andy Bloch (70-1 to win this year, according to Pinnacle), Jim Bechtel (70-1), T.J. Cloutier (70-1), David Singer (60-1), Dewey Tomko (70-1) and Doyle Brunson (45-1).
The most intriguing proposition at Pinnacle asks whether the winner of this year's HORSE tournament will be any of the 99 players listed - essentially requiring bettors to decide whether the champ will be an established pro or an unknown.
The "Yes" (the winner will come from the list of 99) is listed at minus-191 (risk $1.91 to win $1) with the "No" at plus-181 (risk $1 to net $1.81). The "Yes" side has been bet up from an earlier price of minus-168, indicating bettors believe a recognized name will win the HORSE event.
Although it's generally tough to find betting value in "needle in the haystack" props that involve choosing a single winner from a sizable field, the 70-1 price on Bloch has to look attractive. During last year's memorable eight-hour heads-up skirmish - the culmination of a 12-hour final table - Bloch had Reese on the ropes several times.
Reese won five all-in confrontations heads-up, Bloch noted after . It would have been nice to have won one of them, Bloch said - "preferably one of the first four."
Several players from the final table of last year's World Series main event - the $10,000 buy-in no-limit hold ' em world championship - are listed at Pinnacle, led by Allen Cunningham at 50-1. Defending champ Jamie Gold, at 150-1, is the longest shot on the board.
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