Friday, June 15, 2007 | 7:19 a.m.
By at least one measure, the Chicago Cubs stand out as the most underachieving Major League Baseball team this season.
Chicago entered play Thursday with a 29-35 record, 5 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, but according to the stats sorcerers at the Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have won fewer games than expected based on their performance.
The Prospectus, which uses a series of esoteric yet highly respected formulas to analyze baseball, sees the Cubs as closer to a 35-29 team, a record that would put them in first place in the division.
In short, the Cubs have been good but not lucky.
Baseball gamblers looking to capitalize on that information by betting into the World Series future books of Las Vegas casinos, however, probably won't find much to cheer about.
Although the Cubs have traditionally been a "public" team in futures betting - meaning gamblers who bet with their hearts back the Cubbies at the window regardless of their actual chances - lackluster preseason expectations led odds- makers to open them at odds of 75-1 to win the 2007 World Series.
That price has since dropped to 20-1, according to Las Vegas Sports Consultants odds, an indication that the Cubs' solid prospects for an upswing in the standings already has been built into the betting line.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which provides odds to casinos throughout Nevada, does not actually take bets, but its lines serve as an excellent barometer for what bettors will find when they shop around in the state's sports books. As always, bettors are likely to find more attractive odds in aggressively managed sports books, but will probably encounter worse odds at places that put less effort into their future books.
The San Francisco Giants, another National League team tagged as an underachiever, were 30-35 heading into Thursday's action compared with an expected record, according to the Prospectus, of slightly above .500. The Giants are listed at 50-1 to win the World Series, unchanged from their opening price.
The Cincinnati Reds also are playing below expectations, but at 26-40 they appear to be a lost cause for future-book bettors. Appropriately, their odds have jumped from 50-1 to 300-1 to win the World Series.
The oddsmakers' choice to win the National League pennant at 2-1, the New York Mets (4-1 to win the World Series) are playing roughly at par, neither overachieving nor underachieving, according to the Prospectus (baseballprospectus.com).
In the American League, the New York Yankees and Oakland Athletics rate as the two biggest underachievers among teams that remain legitimate contenders.
The Yankees continue to slog along at about .500 despite high preseason expectations - 4-1 favorites to win the World Series with an over/under of 96 1/2 regular-season victories. The Yankees' record could easily be as strong as 37-26 based on their statistics, according to the Prospectus, and bettors who haven't lost faith can snag the Yanks at 12-1 to win the World Series.
The Athletics entered Thursday's action five games behind the Angels in the AL West, but Oakland is probably a few wins better than its 35-29 record indicates. The Athletics are listed at 35-1 to win the World Series, up from an opener of 18-1.
The Boston Red Sox, the current World Series favorite at 5-2, are 41-23 - about as good as expected based on their statistics.
U.S. Open
An overnight rain storm softened the notoriously difficult course at Oakmont Country Club for the first round of the U.S. Open on Thursday, leading to lower scores than bettors and oddsmakers were anticipating.
In wagering before the tournament, bettors in Las Vegas were taking the "over" on the final winning score proposition. It opened at 284 1/2 (4 1/2 strokes over par), minus-110, (risk $1.10 to win $1 on either the "over" or the "under") but was driven up to minus-150 on the "over."
Tiger Woods went off as a heavy favorite of 2-1 to win the tournament, with major sports books expected to offer updated odds after each round.
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