Jeff Haney finds bargains hidden in the Bonds home run props

Monday, July 16, 2007 | 7:15 a.m.

It was a string of requests from sports bettors that prompted Micah Roberts to post an in-depth menu of propositions related to Barry Bonds' 756th home run.

"A lot of people were coming up and asking for them," said Roberts, the sports book director at Sunset Station. "We thought, if they want to take a shot at it, we'd give them a chance."

The result was a detailed selection of props linked to Bonds, who is closing in on Hank Aaron's all-time record of 755 career home runs. Bonds entered the Giants' game Sunday against the Dodgers with 751 homers.

The props, which are available at all Station Casinos properties, ask bettors to predict in which inning Bonds' record-breaking shot will take place; what the pitch count will be when he hits No. 756; and whether the historic home run will come against a right-handed or left-handed pitcher, all at various payout odds.

Bonds' pursuit of Aaron's mark reigns as the leading sports story of the summer, not only because of the significance of baseball's all-time home run record but also due to the controversy generated by allegations of steroid use by Bonds.

"Whether you like (Bonds) or not, you can't help following the story," Roberts said. "If you're a fan, you want to see him do it. If you don't like him, you still watch and hope that he fails."

Bonds' 756th coming against a right-handed pitcher was installed as a minus-170 favorite (risk $1.70 to win $1), with odds of plus-140 (risk $1 to net $1.40) that it will be against a lefty.

This season, 13 of Bonds' 17 homers, or 76 percent of them, have been against right-handers. If you think there's a 76 percent chance No. 756 will come against a righty, it would equate to a money line of about minus-317 (before taking into account any "vigorish," or the house's takeout), making minus-170 a bargain.

In his career, 530 of Bonds' 751 homers, or 70 percent, have been against righties. In money-line terms, 70 percent would convert to about minus-233. So from either of those angles, minus-170 looks like an attractive price.

Reliable statistics for home runs by pitch count are not readily available for Bonds' entire career, but since 2004 - a stretch encompassing 93 home runs - he has hit more home runs with a count of 1 ball and no strikes than any other count.

Bonds has hit 14 of those 93 homers (15 percent) with a 1-0 count, but oddsmakers took that likelihood into account, making it 7-2, or plus-350, that the record-breaker will come on a 1-0 count. That's short of the plus-567 we'd be looking for if we think 15 percent is a fair assessment.

For better value, consider betting either a 0-0 count or a 3-2 count, each of which is offered at odds of 6-1 - pretty close to the "true," or "no-vig" price considering 13 of Bonds' most recent 93 homers, or 14 percent, have come at each of those counts.

The longest odds available on this prop - 10-1 that No. 756 will come with a 3-0 count - aren't as juicy as they might appear. Only one of Bonds' home runs since 2004 has come on a 3-0 pitch.

Bonds has hit more career home runs in the first inning than any other inning - 130, or 17 percent. That figure is built into the odds, which offer 7-2 that No. 756 will come in the first inning. We would want closer to plus-488, the money-line equivalent of 17 percent. You won't find any overlays elsewhere on the innings props either, with the rest of the odds ranging from 4-1 (sixth inning) to 8-1 (extra innings). I'd stick to the righty-lefty or the pitch-count portions of the Bonds bets.

There's a $500 maximum limit on the Bonds props, with no parlays permitted.

You can also wager, at odds of 15-1, that No. 756 will not come this season - an outcome that would please Bonds' many detractors.

"He's kind of like Howard Stern," Roberts said. "If you're a fan, you're going to tune in. And people who hate him are even more interested in what he's going to do."