Jeff Haney finds some alternatives to established stars for those wishing to bet on the NFL’s league leaders
Monday, July 9, 2007 | 7:13 a.m.
You'll find the usual suspects as the betting favorites to lead the NFL in rushing, passing and receiving yards this coming season.
LaDainian Tomlinson is listed at 7-2 to repeat as the league's rushing leader, perennial favorite Peyton Manning is just 5-2 to lead the NFL in passing yards, and Chad Johnson - another defending champ - is the top choice at 6-1 to amass the most receiving yards, according to odds at the Venetian.
Value bettors who dig a little deeper in each category, however, can find some intriguing longer shots and perhaps make a score in the league-leader propositions.
Most rushing yards
Tomlinson is certainly a deserving favorite after rushing for 1,815 yards for San Diego last season, but his odds of 7-2 and the 4-1 attached to second choice Larry Johnson of Kansas City are less than attractive.
Bettors looking for a longer shot might consider Broncos running back Travis Henry, a 10-1 shot who rushed for 1,211 yards in 13 starts for Tennessee a year ago but could easily surpass that total behind Denver's zone-blocking scheme. Denver has traditionally been a place where solid running backs thrive or even emerge as stars. Henry could become the latest example following the likes of Mike Anderson, Clinton Portis and Olandis Gary.
Willis McGahee, another running back starting fresh with a new team, could also be worth a look at 16-1. McGahee rushed for just 990 yards last season with Buffalo, but figures to put up much bigger numbers for Baltimore, which acquired him in a pre-draft trade to add some spark to their running game.
Most passing yards
Manning threw for 4,397 for the Super Bowl champion Colts, second to New Orleans' Drew Brees (4,418), who is listed at 6-1 to repeat. Tom Brady (3-1) and Carson Palmer (6-1) also command short prices on the betting board.
Value players, however, might consider two longer shots who finished Nos. 3 and 4 among NFL passing-yard leaders last season: Marc Bulger of St. Louis and Jon Kitna of Detroit.
Bulger, who threw for 4,301 yards a year ago, is listed at 14-1 and will play again under second-year head coach Scott Linehan, who employs an offensive plan that emphasizes Bulger's passing game. For what it's worth, Bulger also is in the final year of a lucrative contract and would like to set up an even richer multi-year deal after this one expires.
Kitna presents an even more intriguing opportunity, though his odds are a bit shorter at 10-1. Starting for pass-happy head coach Mike Martz, Kitna will have plenty of options at his disposal including running back Kevin Jones, who caught 61 passes out of the backfield last year, leading receivers Mike Furrey and Roy Williams and rookie receiver Calvin Johnson, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.
Most receiving yards
The betting favorite in this category, the Bengals' Johnson, might actually have some value at 6-1. After racking up 1,369 yards last season, Johnson could fatten up his statistics as fellow receiver Chris Henry serves a league-mandated eight-game suspension this season.
Randy Moss offers no value at 8-1, however, after moving to New England, where he'll be playing in a system that spreads the ball around to a variety of receivers and practically ensures Brady will remain the lone individual star.
A better value play could be New Orleans' Marques Colston, who had 1,038 receiving yards in 12 starts last year and becomes the Saints' No. 1 wide receiver with the release of Joe Horn. It helps that at least 10 of the Saints' 16 games will be played in climate-controlled conditions - that is, domes (with one in Houston, which has a retractable roof). Those late-season blizzards can play havoc with a guy's receiving-yard totals. Colston would pay off at 14-1.
Buffalo's Lee Evans could also be worth a shot at 18-1. He amassed 1,292 receiving yards last season and figures to get plenty of chances again for another losing Bills team (over/under for 2007: 6 1/2 wins). The Bills have shown they like to throw Evans the deep ball, and the league leader in receiving yardage does figure to catch his share of long passes.
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