Jeff Haney on this year’s Super Bowl betting orgy, which includes an opening point spread of the ‘key number’ 7

Friday, Jan. 26, 2007 | 8:46 a.m.

When oddsmakers posted the point spread on Super Bowl XLI shortly after the Indianapolis Colts sealed their victory in the AFC title game Sunday night, it looked as if the betting line on the big game would settle on a nice round football number.

Seven points.

A couple of Las Vegas sports books opened the Colts a slightly shorter favorite against the Chicago Bears, at 6 or 6 1/2. But after the first round of bets, 7 appeared to be the number.

It's a good football point spread. "A touchdown," in shorthand, 7 is easy for recreational gamblers to grasp. It rolls off the tongue, as opposed to something like, "3 1/2, minus-120-slash-even money."

In retrospect, however, it might not have been the best number.

The point spread has leaked to 6 1/2 points at several major Las Vegas casinos this week in response to wagers backing the Bears as an underdog. The line was 6 1/2 by midweek at all Station Casinos properties, all Coast Casinos properties and the Palms, for example.

Other books, such as Leroy's and Caesars Palace and its related properties, had Chicago at plus-7, minus-120, meaning Bears bettors were required to risk $1.20 - rather than the traditional $1.10 - for each $1 they were trying to win. (Colts bettors could lay 7 points at even money.)

The move off the point spread of 7 was significant because 7 is a so-called "key number" in NFL betting. The differential in the final score is more likely to land precisely on 7 points than any other number except 3. By comparison, a move in the point spread involving "dead numbers" - say, from 5 1/2 to 5 points - carries much less weight.

"That tells me that maybe the right (point spread) number was closer to 4 1/2, not 7," said Rich Baccellieri, sports book director at the Palms.

Asked whether professional sports bettors or recreational gamblers have more influence on the direction of the Super Bowl betting line, Baccellieri said he believes a dichotomy exists. The pros, sometimes called "wise guys" in gambling parlance, hold more sway than "the public" in the early betting period, the few days after the line is posted. As it gets closer to the week of the game, money from recreational bettors - who make smaller bets, but a lot more of them - starts to pack a punch.

"The pros can take their shots early," Baccellieri said Thursday. "From here on out, it's in the hands of the public."

With a Super Bowl betting handle projected to approach or exceed last year's record $94.5 million in Nevada, bookmakers could find themselves rooting against any result in which the Colts win by exactly 7 points. If that happens, casinos would have to refund a big chunk of the handle to bettors.

The Super Bowl's final score has not landed right on the point spread since Super Bowl XXXIV on Jan. 30, 2000, when the St. Louis Rams beat the Tennessee Titans 23-16 as a 7-point favorite (see accompanying chart).

Propositions

Las Vegas Hilton oddsmakers maintained their reputation as kings of the Super Bowl proposition wagers this week, releasing their annual book-length selection of props - offbeat, unusual wagers - on the big game.

They included plenty of their signature "cross-sport" props, a kind of sports betting brain teaser popular among gamblers. The performances on Super Bowl Sunday of NBA stars such as Jason Kidd and Vince Carter, college basketball players such as Dionte Christmas of Temple, golfers such as Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh, even Manchester United of the English Premier League, among many others, are tied to the Super Bowl in betting propositions.

Bettors can have fun with cross-sport props while still analyzing them rationally. For example, one pits Sidney Crosby's shots on goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins against the total number of interceptions in the Super Bowl. The line is the number of interceptions plus 1 1/2 against Crosby's shots, minus-110 either way.

I like the interceptions on that prop. Here's why: At the Palms, the over/under on total interceptions is 2 1/2, under minus-150, which tells me the "correct" number of interceptions is about 2.3. Crosby averages about 2.8 shots, and has exceeded three shots only three times in his past 18 games (finishing with four each time). The Montreal Canadiens, the Penguins' opponent, are better than average defensively.

Even if I err on the side of caution and project two interceptions and three shots, interceptions plus 1 1/2 figures to win about 60 percent of the time, according to a mathematical analysis using the Poisson distribution, as detailed in Stanford Wong's book "Sharp Sports Betting."

A complete listing of props is available at the Hilton sports book.