Jeff Haney on why the ‘over’ is actually a good bet when the Bears are playing

Monday, Jan. 22, 2007 | 7:15 a.m.

Las Vegas sports books on Sunday installed the Indianapolis Colts a 7-point favorite against the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI, set for Feb. 4 in Miami.

The Bears breezed past the New Orleans Saints 39-14 in Sunday's NFC title game, covering the point spread of 2 1/2 to 3 points in Las Vegas sports books. Chicago improved its record against the point spread to 10-8 in 16 regular-season games and two playoff games.

The Colts beat the New England Patriots 38-34 after going off as a betting favorite of 3 1/2 to 4 points. Indy is now 11-8 (or 10-8-1, depending how you count Sunday's result) against the spread.

More intriguing to some football bettors was the over/under, or "total," of 49 points posted on the Super Bowl.

The over/under - a wager on both teams' combined score - is higher than the posted total in any of the Bears' games this season, belying Chicago's long-standing reputation as a defense-oriented team with a shaky quarterback that can be counted on to deliver "unders" at the betting window.

As is usually the case, the oddsmakers have solid reasoning behind their actions.

The Bears have, in fact, established themselves in the eyes of bettors as a bona fide "over" team. After Sunday's game sailed over the posted total of 43 1/2 points - the highest number attached to any Bears game this season - Chicago is now 13-4 with a push to the "over."

That performance does not appear to be any sort of fluke, either, as Chicago's recent games have played fairly true to form from a statistical perspective.

NFL fans and pundits have noted that the Bears' defense has been hurt by the loss of a couple of key players, tackle Tommie Harris and safety Mike Brown, to injuries this season. Their absence is also evident in a betting-oriented analysis.

Brown was lost for the season after six games due to a foot injury, while Harris missed Chicago's final five regular-season games along with the playoffs due to a hamstring injury.

According to international oddsmaker Simon Noble, a basic guideline for making NFL totals entails predicting how many yards of total offense there will be in a game, subtracting 325 and then dividing by 7 1/2. For example, in a game with 600 total offensive yards projected, the over/under would probably set at about 36 1/2.

Since Harris was KO'd, the Bears are 6-1 to the over. In six of those seven games, the Bears and their opponent amassed offensive yardage totals of 715, 677, 689, 681, 803 and 805 yards - figures that, going strictly by Noble's formula, would equate to over/unders ranging from 47 to 64 points. The actual posted over/unders ranged from 35 to 43 1/2.

Two of those seven games did not play to form. The one real outlier came Dec. 3 against the Vikings, when the teams combined for just 455 yards yet managed to go over the total of 34 when the Bears won 23-13. The Bears' 137-11 edge in return yardage made the difference. The other was Dec. 31, when the Bears and Packers combined for just 33 points despite compiling 689 yards.

Considering the offensive yardage totals in the Colts' most recent games - 774, 505, 561, 753, 673, 672 and 786 - a figure of 700, and therefore a projected total of at least 50 points, seems reasonable for the Super Bowl.