Jon Ralston predicts what will happen on the political scene in Nevada

Friday, Jan. 5, 2007 | 7:13 a.m.

The year 2007 is off to quite a start - a governor undoing his predecessor's appointment to the state's most important regulatory body, county commissioners (with a newcomer's exception) dramatically raising the previously resigned airport director's salary and bipartisanship pledges reverberating from Carson City to D.C.

So what happens next? I have some ideas. But first, remember I am the same guy who told you one year ago that the Democrats would have 27 seats in the Assembly (genius!), that Dean Heller would be a congressman (not bad), that Chris Giunchigliani would be a county commissioner (very well done) and that John Ensign and Jon Porter would be re-elected to the gang of 535 (average-padding). So listen well to what follows and please forget I also foretold of TASC and Prop 13 passing (neither was on the ballot) and I said no commission incumbents would lose (who knew about Lynette's pink bathrobe a year ago?).

But oracles have no fear (or shame), so here are my predictions for 2007:

The locks

Up North: Bipartisanship will dissolve rather quickly in Carson City, starting Jan. 22, when Gov. Jim Gibbons delivers his State of the State address. Read-my-lips Gibbons will propose no new taxes or fees, but will not veto some minor fee increases later approved, leading to a media mauling. He will be lambasted by lawmakers of both parties for having no relationships and no building presence. All-day kindergarten across the board will not be in his budget but will be approved by lawmakers in the second year of the biennium using one-shot funds. Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio will not announce his retirement.

At home: Lois Tarkanian will flirt with not filing for another term but will decide to do so and survive against Metro Officer Laurie Bisch and seven others. Mayor Oscar Goodman will easily win re-election but will not get 80 percent of the vote. No local government incumbent will lose in the valley. Democratic presidential contenders will visit Nevada more than 20 times this year.

The probables

Up North: The Gang of 63 will pass ethics and initiative reform - neither package will be praised as far-reaching. First lady Dawn Gibbons will say something that gets national attention before her husband does. More than one major Gibbons administration appointee will leave before the end of 2007. State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus will confront a coup - no one will much care. State Sen. Bob Beers will become a key ally of the new governor, but he will say something flippant that gets into the public domain and angers Gibbons.

At home: Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani will not be seen as the most divisive force on the board. Another major gaming company will be sold. By the end of the year, pressure will mount on Commission Chairman Rory Reid to run against Rep. Jon Porter, who will be increasingly pegged as the most likely opponent to Reid the Elder in 2010. Major city and county appointive leaders will be forced out by year's end.

The fantasies

Up North: Chrissy Mazzeo will come to Carson City to lobby for victims' rights - there will be an incident at Adele's. Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley will look at Minority Leader Garn Mabey from her podium and ask, "Who are you again?" The gaming industry will overreach on a piece of legislation - and actually lose.

At home: The homeless will not get any headlines this year and will be treated with dignity and respect. There will be two special sessions of the Legislature - one to fix problems caused by the Education First initiative and another to pass illegal immigration legislation. During an interview on "Face to Face," Hillary Clinton will officially declare her candidacy for president, showing the clout the Nevada caucus has on the 2008 White House race.