Jeff Haney breaks down the money line on the NFL playoffs and offers Super Bowl projections from a Las Vegas handicapper

Friday, Jan. 5, 2007 | 7:14 a.m.

Just a few weeks ago, in their second regular-season meeting on Dec. 17, the New York Giants went off as a 6-point favorite against the Philadelphia Eagles.

In Sunday's NFC wild-card playoff game, the Eagles are favored by 7 points against the Giants.

That's a significant point-spread swing in professional football in such a short amount of time.

In fact, it's too much of an adjustment, according to Las Vegas sports handicapper Patrick Bartucci.

On this weekend's slate of four wild-card games, Bartucci's two best bets will come in the Eagles-Giants game Sunday afternoon.

He recommends a play on the Giants getting 7 and on the "under" 46 1/2 total points in the contest.

"I think the number (7) is too high, especially in a third divisional game," Bartucci, online at patricksfreepress.com, said. Sure, the Giants were home last time whereas the Eagles host Sunday's game. Even so, Bartucci sees the teams as closer to evenly matched than oddsmakers and the betting marketplace do.

In an early-season game Sept. 17, the Eagles blew a 17-point fourth-quarter lead and the Giants went on to record a 30-24 victory as a 2 1/2-point underdog. In that game and in Philadelphia's 36-22 victory in the rematch, team yardage statistics were fairly similar, Bartucci pointed out.

The Eagles have been riding a surprising late-season surge by quarterback Jeff Garcia, but Bartucci believes opposing teams could now be lying in wait for Garcia, a replacement for injured regular starter Donovan McNabb.

"There's enough game film on Garcia that they should be able to adjust," Bartucci said.

Although the Giants' defense all but collapsed in the second half of the regular season - a slump by quarterback Eli Manning also prompted the team's decline from one-time NFC co-favorite to fringe playoff team - Bartucci expects both squads to rely extensively on the rush Sunday, a strategy that often favors an "under" result.

"Because Eli's been so sloppy, and (running back) Tiki Barber had such a great game last week against Washington, if I was sitting down for breakfast with (Giants coach) Tom Coughlin, I'd be telling him one thing: 'You've got to run the ball,' " Bartucci said.

Bartucci also puts stock in a potentially telling trend: All four of the Eagles' playoff games at Lincoln Financial Field have gone "under" the total.

"I think that's significant because a lot of the coaching staff and personnel are the same," Bartucci said.

Looking ahead in the NFL playoffs, Bartucci projects a Super Bowl matchup of the Baltimore Ravens against the Chicago Bears, with the Ravens' top-ranked defense prevailing Feb. 4 in Miami. Baltimore leads the league in the key metrics of yards allowed per game (264.1) and yards allowed per play (4.5).

Gamblers in Las Vegas can find the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at odds of 9-2 (the Palms) or 4-1 (several shops), and should not settle for less than those numbers.

Money-line mania

If you plan to make a money-line wager on Monday's BCS championship game between Florida and Ohio State, make sure you don't get taken for a ride.

Ohio State is favored by 7 to 7 1/2 points throughout Nevada, but bettors will find larger discrepancies on the money line, a wager on the game's outright winner regardless of the point spread.

As of Thursday, the money line on the favored Buckeyes was as high as minus-300 (risk $3 to win $1) and as low as minus-260 in various Las Vegas sports books.

The money line on the underdog Gators was as low as plus-210 (net $2.10 for each $1 risked) and as high as plus-255.

The most competitive money line "straddle," a term that refers to the difference in price between the favorite and the underdog, can be found at the Palms, which had Ohio State at minus-275 and Florida at plus-255. (A tighter straddle means a smaller profit margin for the casino and therefore a more favorable situation for the bettor.)

The Palms' money line of minus-275/plus-255 equates to a theoretical hold for the casino of just 1.48 percent, the best bet for gamblers among Las Vegas sports books.

The least competitive money line I saw on the game was minus-300/plus-220, which was being offered at Caesars properties, the Imperial Palace, Station properties and the Venetian. That equates to a theoretical hold for the casino of 5.88 percent.

A sampling of money lines from other sports books:

Las Vegas bettors can create their own "homemade" money line by pairing one of the minus-260 lines with the plus-255, and have to buck a theoretical disadvantage of a scant 0.39 percent.